When the “best” of today is far worse than the worst of the worst in 70 years


The St Louis Fed records that in the last 70 years, the average time one is in a state of unemployment (i.e. duration) in America is now 25 weeks (6 months). Assuming that we are in the sweet spot of a tight labour market we can see clearly that this  post-GFC ‘recovery’ at its best is 25% worse than the worst we have seen over seven decades of post recession recoveries which has barely nudged over 20 weeks. Looking at CEO Bullard’s remarks in a presentation back in April 2016, titled ‘Slow normalization or no normalization?’ that these are extraordinary times.

Take this job and shove it (if only I could)


I been workin’ in this factory
For nigh on fifteen years
All this time I watched my woman
Drownin’ in a pool of tears
And I’ve seen a lot of good folks die
That had a lot of bills to pay
I’d give the shirt right offa’ my back
If I had the guts to say

Take this job and shove it

Sadly the above chart isn’t reflecting the lyrics of Johnny Paycheck. In the October labour stats it revealed that 8.05mn are now working two jobs or more to make ends meet. This is the highest on record.

It begs a question I’ve long held that the unemployment stats include a lot of double counting. Full time employment continues to wane while part time jobs pick up the slack.

Actual unemployed persons declined to under 7.8mn in October but October over previous years has seen an improvement.

in September the number of part-time workers jumped by 430,000 while full-time workers actually declined 5,000. The trend continued in October, when another 103,000 full-time jobs were lost, which was offset by a 90,000 increase in part-time jobs.

Quantity is one thing which the statisticians love to cite but quality is shocking and best swept under the carpet.

Once again the coming election is based on poverty which is why I believe Trump continues to remain competitive despite lacking credentials- he resonates with the battler.

US Unemployed Persons nudges 8 million and turns up 503k since May confirming a 66 year trend


The Bureau of Labor Statistics published Non-farm payrolls tonight and the one chart I remain focused on is this one – US unemployed persons. It has been an excellent picker of turning points in the US economy over the last 60+ years.

In last month’s payroll data I mentioned that it would be interesting to see if these numbers looked like nudging the 8mn mark. At 7.94mn (+90,000) we got close and the direction looks like another turning point in the data. Trends like this fascinate me. Will it breach 8mn in October?

Looking at the reported composition of jobs in the data full-time jobs actually declined by 5,000 to 142,296K but part-time jobs soared by 430,000.

Zerohedge noted, “But perhaps even worse than the breakdown in September job quality, was another seldom-touted series: the number of Multiple jobholders, or people who are forced to hold more than one job due to insufficient wages or for other reasons. It was here that the red flashing light came on because as a result of the 301K monthly surge in Americans holding more than one job, the 5th highest monthly spike in the past decade, the total number of Multiple jobholders soared to 7.863 million, the highest number since the financial crisis, and a number surpassed just once in the past decade: in August of 2008, just before all hell broke loose.”

Are politicians and authorities going to whistle dixie all the while the data shows the jobs market is dire? Low quality employment abounds and more people are needing to take on extra jobs just to survive. One again does this explain why people are so fed up with the establishment and putting their weight behind Trump who is resonating with those doing it tough? Sure sounds like a part of it to me. .