#tonyabbott

And another anti-Abbott feral in Warringah

These people need help.

Zali’s feral follower shows his true totalitarian streak

Earlier this week, CM posted a picture of a non-sanctioned Zali Steggall supporter. This is the action of a real Zali Steggall volunteer. What a disgrace! How can an election turn people so feral?

Abbott Derangement Syndrome includes ranting during national mourning

There is a Jewish proverb which says “slander slays three people: the spoken by, the spoken to and the spoken of.”

The media couldn’t help themselves drum up some faux outrage over Tony Abbott’s words on the passing of former PM Bob Hawke.

If Abbott had said nothing he’d be lambasted. If he had crafted the most wonderful prosaic portrait of Hawke with the pen strokes of Jane Austen he would still be hung out to dry. He can’t win. It is more telling of disrespect to Hawke to find any excuse to attack Abbott.

Abbott’s comments were absolutely fine. He openly praised Hawke as one of the best leaders of our time. It says more about those with Abbott Derangement Syndrome to find fault in everything he does.

We get many hate the man. Not even working as a life saver and a volunteer fire fighter cuts him any slack. Scott Morrison should have ignored press calls to have a go at Abbott for his ‘partisan’ words.

Why not take to task Bronwyn Bishop, who on Sky News talked of Hawke’s sometimes inebriated state, womanizing and philandering?

Bob Hawke was simply a wonderful PM who reached across party lines to modernize Australia. A shame the press had to find fault in everything. As a former PM himself, Abbott reserves the rise to express his feelings in his own way without sanction from the PMO.

Actually, vote on the political emergency

No surprise to see The Guardian parrot on about a climate emergency. The editorial completely misses out on the political emergency we face. The economic climate is a massive issue facing Australia. When Bill Shorten tells us that he “will change the nation forever” we shouldn’t view that positively. It is probably the honest thing he has said. Labor’s policy suite is the worst possible collection one could assemble to tackle what economic headwinds lie ahead. Our complacency is deeply disconcerting.

First let’s debunk the climate noise in The Guardian.

The math on the climate emergency is simple. Australia contributes 0.0000156% of global carbon emissions. No matter what we do our impact is zip. If we sell it as 560 million tonnes it sounds huge but the percentage term is all that is relevant. Even Dr Finkel, our climate science guru, agrees. What that number means is that Australia could emit 65,000x what it does now in order to get to a 1% global impact. So even if our emissions rise at a diminishing rate with the population, they remain minuscule.

Bill Shorten often tells us the cost of doing nothing on climate change is immeasurable. He’s right, only in that “it is too insignificant” should be the words he’s searching for.

Perhaps the saddest part of the Guardian editorial was to say that the Green New Deal proposed by Alexandria Ocasio Cortez was gaining traction in the US. It has been such a catastrophic failure that she lost an unsolicited vote on the Senate floor 57-0 because Democrats were too embarrassed to show up and support it. Nancy Pelosi dismissed it as a “green dream.” At $97 trillion to implement, no wonder AOC says feelings are more important than facts.

With the 12-year time limit to act before we reach the moving feast known as the tipping point, it gets confusing for climate sceptics. Extinction Rebellion wants things done in only 6 years. The UK House of Commons still can’t get a Brexit deal done inside 3 years but can act instantaneously to call a “climate emergency” after meeting a brainwashed teenager from Sweden. It speaks volumes of the desperation and lack of execution to have to search for political distractions like this.

The ultimate irony in the recent celebration of no coal-fired power in the UK for one week was fossil fuel power substituted all of it – 93% to be exact. Despite the energy market operator telling Brits that zero carbon emissions were possible by 2025 (40% of the current generation capacity is fossil fuel), it forgot that 85% of British homes heat with gas. Presumably, they’d need to pop on down to Dixon’s or Curry’s to buy new electric heaters which would then rely on a grid which will junk 40% of its reliable power…good luck sorting that out without sending prices sky high. Why become beholden to other countries to provide the back-up? It is irrational.

Are people aware that the German electricity regulator noted that 330,000 households (not people) were living in energy poverty? At 2 people per household, that is 1% of the population having their electricity supply cut off because they can’t afford to pay it. That’s what expensive renewables do. If the 330,000 could elect cheap electricity to warm their homes or go without for the sake of the climate, which would they choose? 100% cheap, reliable power. Yet Shorten’s plan can only push more into climate poverty which currently stands at 42,000 homes. This is before the economy has started to tank!

If one looks across Europe, it is no surprise to see the countries with the highest level of fossil fuel power generation (Hungary, Lithuania & Bulgaria) have the lowest electricity prices. Those with more renewables (Denmark, Germany & Belgium), the highest. That is Australia’s experience too. South Australia and Victoria have already revealed their awful track record with going renewable. Why did Coca-Cola and other industries move out of SA after decades? They couldn’t make money with such an unreliable

Ahh, but we must protect our children and grandchildren’s futures. So low have the left’s tactics sunk that using kids as human shields in the fight for climate change wards off conservatives calling out the truth because it is not cool to bully brainwashed kids. We should close all our universities. As the father of two teenagers, CM knows they know everything already so there is little requirement for tertiary education!

The Guardian mentioned, “But in Australia, the Coalition appears deaf to the rising clamour from the electorate [on climate change].” Really?

CM has often held that human consumption patterns dictate true feelings about climate change. Climate alarmist Independent candidate Zali Steggall drives a large SUV and has no solar panels on her roof! Her battleground in the wealthy seat of Warringah is probably 70%+ SUV so slapping a Zali bumper sticker does nothing but add to the hypocrisy.

Why do we ignore IATA forecasts that project air travel will double by 2030? Qantas has the largest carbon offset program in the world yet only 2% elect to pay the self-imposed tax. Isn’t that telling? That is the problem. So many climate alarmists expect others to do the heavy lifting.

SUVs make up 43% of all new car sales in Australia. In 2007 it was 19%. Hardly the activity of a population fretting about rising sea levels. In Warringah, waterfront property sales remain buoyant and any bank that feared waves lapping the rooves of Burran Avenue would not take such portfolio risk, much less an insurance company.

Shorten’s EV plan is such a dud that there is a reason he can’t cost it. Following Norway is great in theory but the costs of installing EV infrastructure is prohibitively expensive. It will be NBN Mark II. Will we spend millions to trench 480V connectors along the Stuart Highway?

Norway state enterprise, Enova, said it would install fast chargers every 50km of 7,500km worth of main road/highway. Australia has 234,820km of highways/main roads. Fast chargers at every 50km like the Norwegians would require a minimum of 4,700 charging stations across Australia. Norway commits to a minimum of 2 fast chargers and 2 standard chargers per station.

The problem is our plan for 570,000 cars per annum is 10x the number of EVs sold in Norway, requiring 10x the infrastructure. That would cost closer to $14bn, or the equivalent of half the education budget.

The Guardian griped that “Scott Morrison’s dismissive response to a UN report finding that the world is sleepwalking towards an extinction crisis, and his parliamentary stunt of fondling a lump of coal”

Well, he might doubt the UN which has been embroiled in more scandals related to climate change than can be counted. Most won’t be aware that an internal UN survey revealed the dismay of unqualified people being asked for input for the sake of diversity and inclusion as opposed to choosing those with proper scientific qualifications. The UN has climbed down from most of its alarmist predictions, often citing no or little confidence of the original scare.

Yet this election is truly about the cost of living, not climate or immigration. The biggest emergency is to prepare for the numbers we can properly set policy against.

We have household debt at a record 180% of GDP. We have had 27 years of untrammelled economic growth. Unfortunately, we have traded ourselves into a position of too much complacency. Our major 4 banks are headed for a lot of trouble. Forget meaningless stress tests. APRA is too busy twiddling its thumbs over climate change compliance. While the Royal Commission may reign in loose lending, a slowing global economy with multiple asset bubbles including houses will come crumbling down. These banks rely 40% on wholesale markets to fund growth. A sharp slowdown will mean a weaker dollar which will only exacerbate the problem.

We have yet to see bond markets price risk correctly. Our banks are horribly exposed. They have too little equity and a mortgage debt problem that dwarfs Japan in the late 1980s. Part/whole nationalization is a reality. The leverage is worse than US banks at the time of the Lehman collapse.

We have yet to see 10% unemployment rates. We managed to escape GFC with a peak of 6% but this time we don’t have a buoyant China to rescue us. Consumers are tapped out and any upward pressure on rates (to account for risk) will pop the housing bubble. Not to worry, Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen assures people not to panic if their home falls into negative equity! This is the level of economic nous on the catastrophe that awaits. It is insanely out of touch.

Are our politicians aware that the US has to refinance US$8.4 trillion in US Treasuries in the next 3 years? That amount of money will crowd out a corporate bond market which has more than 50% of companies rated BBB or less. This will be compounded by the sharp rise in inventories we are witnessing on top of the sharp slowdown in trade (that isn’t just related to the trade war) which is at GFC lows. The 3.2% US economic growth last quarter was dominated by “intellectual property”, not consumption or durable goods.

China car sales have been on a steep double-digit decline trajectory for the last 9 months. China smartphone shipments dwindle at 6 year lows. In just the first four months of 2019, Chinese companies defaulted on $5.8 billion of domestic bonds, c.3.4x the total for the same period of 2018. The pace is over triple that of 2016.

Europe is in the dumps. Germany has had some of the worst industrial production numbers since 2008. German GDP is set to hit 0.5% for 2019. France 1.25% and Italy 0.25%. Note that in 2007, there were 78mn Europeans living in poverty. In the following decade, it hit 118mn or 23.5% of the population.

Global bellwether Parker Hannifin, which is one of the best lead indicators of global industrial growth, reported weaker orders and a soft outlook which suggests the outlook for global growth is not promising.

This election on Saturday is a choice between the lesser of two evils. The LNP has hardly made a strong case for reelection given the shambolic leadership changes. Take it to the bank that neither will be able to achieve surpluses with the backdrop we are headed into. Yet when it comes to economic stewardship, it is clear Labor are out of their depth in this election. Costings are wildly inaccurate but they are based on optimistic growth scenarios that simply don’t exist. We cannot tax our way to prosperity when global growth dives.

Hiking taxes, robbing self-managed super fund retirees and slamming the property market might play well with the classes of envy but they will be the biggest victims of any slowdown. Australia has run out of runway to keep economic growth on a positive footing.

We will do well to learn from our arrogance which has spurned foreign investment like Adani. We miscalculate the damage done to the national brand. Adani has been 8 years in the making. We have tied the deal up in so much onerous red tape, that we have done nothing more than treating our foreign investors with contempt. Those memories will not be forgotten.

There will come a point in years to come where we end up begging for foreigners to invest at home but we will only have ourselves to blame.

The editorial closes with,

However you choose to exercise your democratic decision-making on Saturday, please consider your candidate’s position on climate and the rapidly shrinking timeframe for action. We have endured mindless scare campaigns and half-baked policy for too many decades. We don’t have three more years to waste.

This is the only sensible quote in the entire article. The time for action is rapidly shrinking. However, that only applies to the political and economic climate. One can be absolutely sure that when the slowdown hits, saving the planet will be furthest removed from Aussie voters’ minds.

Quality campaigning for Zali

Quite certain this gentleman is not from Warringah, nor endorsed by Independent Zali Steggall but she must be glad to know this guy is in her corner. Quality campaigning.

Cut the crap

Image may contain: 1 person, text

Labor Party MP Richard Marles posted this picture to his Facebook page pointing to the threat of the 2014 budget ahead of the 2013 election. It is all on the public record to see that this is blatant rubbish. Of course, the hope is that the “stupid” voters will not bother to fact check these claims 2 days ahead of an election. CM was fascinated to see how these numbers stack up against the actual budget papers. Complete fiction.

Entire health spending in 2013-14 was $64.6bn. In the 2014-15 projection, it was $68.1bn. Up $3.5bn. How does Labor get to -$57bn? In 2018-19, health spending was $78.8bn. The budget paper notes, “The increase in expenses of 6.8 per cent in real terms from 2013-14 to 2014-15 reflects the Commonwealth’s commitment to provide additional hospital funding from 2014-15 under current agreements with the States.

Education spending was $29.75bn in 2013-14 and projected $30.39bn the following year. (+$640mn). Technically if $30bn was cut from schools there would be no budget at all. In 2018-19, education spending was $34.7bn.

Government school spending in 2013-14 was $2.8bn which leapt to $5.1bn in the 2014-15 budget. In 2018-19 it was $7.7bn.

Indigenous Affairs welfare fell by $104m in the 2014-15 budget. In 2018-19, this budget was DOUBLE the 2014-15 number at $2.1bn.

ABC spending (split into TV & Radio – refer page 6-39) went up $18mn not -$35.5mn. In 2018-19 the budget was $1.03bn. As CM has written before, the ABC is a shoddily run organisation. Staff engagement at the ABC is 46%, down 6% from the previous survey. It isn’t a money problem. It is a management problem.

On page 6-11, income support for seniors went  UP from $39.5bn to $42.1bn). In 2018-19 it was $46.8bn. Total assistance to the aged went UP from $54.98bn to $57.97bn in 2014-15. In 2018-19 that sum was $66.77bn.

Welcome to pre-election political accounting 101.

Woke

Woke! Owns a Toyota Prius 4th Gen, loves the ABC and climate alarmist Zali Steggall but hates Tony Abbott. One wonders what might happen to a car with “Vote 1 Tony Abbott” stickers adorning the bumper? No doubt it would be keyed, have its tyres deflated and the owner alienated by his or her neighbours. Former PM Abbott will be relying strictly on the “silent voter” this Saturday.

To be fair to the driver above, at least the vehicle choice reflects the stance. Most other cars sporting such stickers in the well to do Warringah electorate are gas guzzling SUVs, often the top spec AMG versions too. Proof that some in the more elitist suburbs are happy for others to save the planet on their behalf!

The irony is that after the election, the driver will need to invest in some fossil fuel derived chemicals to remove the stickers…oh well…