Tokyo

Vacant homes in Japan hit 8.46m

8.46m homes or 13.6% of all dwellings are vacant in Japan in 2018. This is up 3.2% on 2017 according to the Housing & Land Survey. CM wrote about the population exodus from regional areas in Japan in this report.

Vacancy rates in Wakayama, Tokushima, and Kagoshima prefectures stand at 18.8%, 18.6%, and 18.4% respectively, areas suffering population exodus. Tokyo, Kanazawa (Yokohama), Okinawa and Saitama, all experiencing net migration inflows, have the lowest rates of unoccupied houses.

Yubari City in Hokkaido has a campaign poster – “No money but love.

Yubari is notable for five things. First, it is the region that produces Japan’s most expensive melons, the type you see beautifully encased in a satin-lined pine box with a price label of US$200. Second, it had to declare bankruptcy in 2007. Third, its population has fallen from 117,000 in the 1960s to around 21,000 in the 1990s to less than 8,900 today, falling 19% in the last 5 years alone. Fourth, the average age of the city’s residents is set to hit 65 by 2020. Fifth, taxable income continues to fall with estimates that government coffers will swell by a woozy 25% of the levels seen 20 years ago.

Not a good sign for the regional economies. Japan has a stall speed warning and the government plans to fix it are painfully inadequate.

Stupid is as stupid does

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That’s one small backward step for man. One giant backward step for women. What a foreign concept that some women might be smarter than men? Surely pursuing best in class healthcare means striving to grade students based on merit. Not so in Japan. The Tokyo Medical University was found to have deliberately marked down women in entrance exams to limit their numbers.

The scandal broke during an investigation into the admission of a ministry official’s son, who essentially bought his way in. He was given 20 extra points after failing the exam multiple times so he could pass. What a proud moment to know one has to buy influence to make up for a lack of ability.

It has been revealed that the share of female doctors passing Japan’s national medical exam has remained at about 30% for the last two decades.

Sadly class actions don’t produce much other than a token slap on the wrist. Of course all Japanese women just want to marry, become housewives and raise kids for their salarymen husbands. None should have ambition other than to serve their men. No wonder maid cafes do so well in Japan  – the girls say, “yes, my master!” in order to allow men with inferiority complexes to have fantasies of being dominant.

Is Koike about to sizzle the LDP on the teppanyaki plate lit by PM Abe?

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Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike seems to be gathering speed with her Party of Hope as the Dems have all but told their members to unite under her flag. She is openly stating she isn’t out for second place although hasn’t stated her intention to run herself. Remember that Koike is no amateur, having served as a national cabinet minister for defence and the environment under Koizumi. When she went for the leadership of the LDP in 2008 she spoke of the glass ceiling Hillary Clinto spoke of as more of an iron plate in Japan. Forget her gender, she is offering a “fresh” face. In contrast PM Abe is running a campaign where he is willingly throwing dead bodies of his own party so long as he can cling to a majority. Hardly a strategy of promise and one that all of the scandals within the LDP only give Koike perfect cannon fodder to use against the LDP –  scandals ranging from graft, cronyism (two blatant incidents inviolving the PM), extramarital affairs and ministers screaming at subordinates.  It is hard to work out whether Abe is channeling Malcolm Turnbull or Theresa May…one thing is that taking the voting public for mugs isn’t a good strategy.

You can almost smell the LDP smoldering on the teppanyaki hot plate Abe lit. However it seems that everyone is increasingly looking at the chef – Governor Koike. She deserves to make it. Not because she is a woman but because she actually looks to provide real leadership and a viable alternative to decades of establishment rule. Sadly Japan’s opposition parties have mostly been in opposition so they lack experience. United behind a leader like Koike and the electorate might well give her a mandate. PM Abe must really be feeling the heat and there is no worse campaign to run than that of defending the indefensible against someone that the press is giving constant airtime to. He is fighting a defensive game not to lose. She is fighting an aggressive game to win. Who would you place your bets on?

Japanese politics hasn’t been this interesting in ages.

Tokyo’s Iron Lady preparing a wrecking ball

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PM Abe may have more than met his match. It seems Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike could win the support of defections from the flailing Democratic Party of Japan. They are considering running no candidates under their own banner but under hers – The Party of Hope (Kibo no To). Koike isn’t playing by the rules and PM Abe’s wish to hold a snap election knowingly ceding seats so he could keep a majority may end up backfiring. She has next to nothing to lose and she represents a  “fresh” scandal-less face to the electorate. She is on a wave. Abe’s majority under threat.

Think of it this way. The LDP is embarking on a strategy that seeks to take some losses. In a sense they are openly conceding it is all about clinging to power. Hardly a promising election strategy. The slew of scandals (two with the PM himself) works to Koike’s favour in appealing to those that see her as a reboot to the decades of LDP cronyism.  Still early days but the momentum is almost tsunami like. Drain the swamp?

Tokyo Gov Koike shows powerful ad spurning the old guard

Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike has released a powerful video which will likely capture the mood of what is going on in Japan’s political sphere. The cigarette chugging old men in the ad are screaming along the lines of “you wanna rise against us?”, “you wanna spurn our organizations?” and “if you change things it will be so problematic”. The model designed to look like Koike strides past ignoring them. With the stench in national politics (a long stream of scandals and corruption) her message is indeed powerful. It is still very early days and her success will rely on how ready some politicians are ready to defect. Koike is getting massive airtime and even if she chooses not to run it will be pitched as a Koike vs Abe campaign. Remember the hugely popular former PM Junichiro Koizumi was a backer of Koike. Let the games begin. This video will resonate.

Tokyo Governor Koike for Japan’s first female PM?

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Japan’s PM Shinzo Abe called a snap election yesterday to try to secure a 266 seat majority for his long ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The call was largely based on taking advantage of turmoil within the Minshinto (Democratic Party) where one of its married MPs was caught having an affair with a married man. While the LDP hasn’t been short of its own scandals, Abe is hopeful that holding an election on October 22 will leave little time for Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike to prepare enough of a threat to steal Abe’s majority. It should be a good show none-the-less.

Several months ago in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly elections, Koike’s Tomin First (Tokyoites First) Party smacked Abe’s LDP convincingly. She won 49 seats (out of 50 contested) from 6 held before the election in the 127 seat Municipal Assembly. The LDP went from 57 to 23, 15 less that its worst ever showing to date. She is now leading the Kibonoto (Party of Hope).

Governor Koike said, “There is insufficient hope in Japan, I am at the forefront to regain the glow, I want to get involved directly with the national administration…I put the letters of “hope” on the policy”

Whether she runs for national office or just runs the party behind the scenes, she is a force to be reckoned with.

According to one of my savvy barstool political analysts, he says 266 seats are what are required for the LDP to maintain sole majority in the lower house, get the chairman appointed to the 17 committees in the parliament and maintaining majority within each of tbe committee.

Let the anti-establishment fireworks begin…perhaps Abe will feel a bit like Merkel.