#scotland

UK’s utterly mad electricity operator

The defunct Rugeley power station in Staffordshire

The National Grid Electricity System Operator (NGESO) has said the UK has not used coal-fired power for a week, the first time since 1882. Hooray! High fives all round! NGESO director, Fintan Slye, believes that UK electricity generation could be zero carbon by 2025. What you will read points to the utter madness and inadequate planning that will crush the grid in winter if zero carbon happens. He clearly doesn’t believe in energy poverty, something 331,000 Germans suffered from in 2017.

Let’s look at the latest UK energy mix published by OFGEM.

Coal: 4.8%

Gas: 32.8%

Nuclear: 13.2%

Hydro: 1.95%

Wind/Solar: 15.16%

Biomass: 7.68%

There is an irony to hear the UK government will phase out coal by 2025. It is hardly a goal to phase out 1% per year. How is it possible to zero carbon by 2025 with a junking of 37.6% of the grid? Crank up nuke? Biomass, which is more environmentally unfriendly than coal?

Maybe Mr Slye should read its own endorsed reports?

The Summer Outlook 2019 notes,

Gas Demand – during the summer gas-fired electricity generation becomes a more significant component of GB demand, unlike winter when domestic heating dominates. We are expecting increased volumes of LNG supply, which affects flows of gas across GB.

This OFGEM report calculated the % of the 26.3mn homes that use gas heating in the UK during winter as follows.

England: 85%

Scotland: 78%

Wales: 79%

So what happens when fossil fuels get phased out for a zero carbon world by 2025? Perhaps they need to rely on electricity generated heat onto a grid that plans to knock out c.40% of its fossil fuel baseload. OFGEM notes,

In Great Britain, 25% of flats use electric heating compared to only 4% of houses.

Homes with electric heating systems tend to have a lower energy efficiency rating, partly reflecting the higher running costs of using electric heating. In England, 2% of dwellings with mains gas heating are ‘F’ or ‘G’ rated, compared to 14% of dwellings with storage heating systems, and 57% of dwellings with direct-acting heating.

Storage heating systems can be found disproportionately in private-rented and social housing while direct-acting heating systems can be found disproportionately in the private-rented sector. Households living in these properties are more likely to be:

of lower income. In England, around a third fall in the lowest income quintile, with incomes of less than about £14,500.

fuel poor. In Scotland for example, 48% of households with storage heating systems and 68% of households with direct-acting electric heating are in fuel poverty, compared to 31% of households that use mains gas.

-single adult households and households with no children. There is generally no significantly increased likelihood of householders having a long-term illness or disability (with the exception of storage heating households in Scotland).

So essentially in the quest to virtue signal, policymakers risk pushing more into energy poverty. The only outcome here is far higher prices. Given the UK wants to go full EV by 2040, throw more on the bonfire of stupidity.

Has the NGESO calculated the extra impact to the grid that transferring heating gas to the grid to get zero emissions by 2025 will cause?

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Now that former Australian PM Malcolm Turnbull has chimed in applauding the UK’s week of non coal power generation alongside the embattled UK PM Theresa May, it confirms this energy policy is a dead cert dud.

Scotland bans smacking children. Would you arrest Toya Graham?

Scotland is banning smacking children. It is a contentious issue. Sensible parenting would suggest spanking is done as an absolute last resort. Germany has banned it since 2000. Of course, preventing child abuse is a no-brainer. Recall single mum Toya Graham who shot to fame after slapping her son when she found he disobeying her direct order to stay away from the Baltimore protests. She gave her son a schooling which was widely praised in the media. Call it tough love or whatever but her son literally didn’t know what hit him. How anyone could see it as anything other than unconditional love for her ‘only’ son is beyond words? Even the media were calling her “Mom of the year”.

Yet in this powder-puff world, more laws are being put in place to wrap kids in cotton wool and cage parents behind barbed wire. Is it any wonder we have so many unadjusted millennials who need safe spaces, trigger warnings to prevent micro-aggressions? Why not ban rugby and football for kids because by the same token, contact sports are inherently violent and would only reinforce the many studies which have tried to link those kids who are on the receiving end of corporal punishment to being “more” likely to be aggressive.

As a statistician though, collecting enough credible data on this is incredibly hard to do. For one, kids stepping out of line is not only random in terms of time and severity but age and a whole host of factors. Can one honestly say that a kid who was smacked twice a year is likely to be twice as prone to anxiety in later life than one smacked once a year? Can we honestly link the event of a father smacking his 7yo who stole money from his mother’s purse to buy candy was directly related to his PTSD in later life? Indeed if there is serious and continuous child abuse then that is a whole different story. What is next? Will the government use a stern telling off by a parent as ‘verbal abuse’ of children? Who  determines the line of what constitutes parenting and abuse?

Perhaps we should look at the incidence of single parent households around the world. Maybe parent responsibility (or rather lack thereof) is a far bigger factor in causing ‘problems’ in later life than a smack for insolence. Starting with America – the top 10 counties where kids are in households raised by one parent is over 70% with the ironically named Loving County in Texas the top at almost 100%. In Japan single parent households are now 25% of all families up from 15% in 1990. In Scotland, 25% of families (170,000) are single parent. As a statistician it is far easier to draw a link between growing single parent households and maladjusted kids. The bottom line is that there is a large body of literature showing that children of single parents are more likely to commit crimes than children who grow up with their married parents.

From the report ‘The Real Root Causes of Violent Crime: The Breakdown of Marriage, Family, and Community

“Most delinquents are children who have been abandoned by their fathers. They are often deprived also of the love and affection they need from their mother. Inconsistent parenting, family turmoil, and multiple other stresses (such as economic hardship and psychiatric illnesses) that flow from these disagreements compound the rejection of these children by these parents, many of whom became criminals during childhood. With all these factors working against the child’s normal development, by age five the future criminal already will tend to be aggressive, hostile, and hyperactive. Four-fifths of children destined to be criminals will be “antisocial” by 11 years of age, and fully two-thirds of antisocial five-year-olds will be delinquent by age 15.”

Maybe the Scots should make getting divorce much harder more than preventing corporal punishment? After all single parent benefits are so easy to get making the decision to split so much easier. In Japan divorces sky-rocketed when the government entitled women to 50% of their spouse’s pension. Policy matters.

Before those that want to point at poverty as a factor in crime they might want to know that the Chinese in San Francisco in the mid-1960s had the lowest family income of any ethnic group (less than $4,000 per year) but next to no crime: only 5 Chinese in all of California were then in prison.

How many parents today use iPhones or iPads as modern day pacifiers to naughty kids as a substitute for good parenting? Easier to stuff an iPhone in their face after they’ve stepped out of line than spend 5 minutes looking eye to eye to explain right and wrong. Instead threats like “wait til I tell your father when he gets home” have been replaced by WiFi password changes, temporary confiscations of devices and the cruelest of all – denial of the charger. Different families have different views about discipline. Yet, kids are continuous learners – they quickly learn what they can and can’t get away with. They are sponges. Who could forget this video of a 3yo kid obviously copying his father saying to his mother, “Linda, Linda, Honey! Listen!” Little Kevin worked out that Grandma was a far softer target.

I’m sure most kids from my generation have had a smack from a parent which was thoroughly deserved. I am sure most of you have made it without safe spaces or trigger warnings. So before the Scots declare a huge victory over banning smacking kids, perhaps society needs a deeper hard look at these other issues.

Oh the moral crusading!

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I honestly can’t believe that some “Remainers” think that this chart shows a betrayal by those who voted “Leave”  Also to believe this chart takes some doing. When you vote you are ticked off an electoral role (Austria take note)  You don’t disclose your age on a ballot paper. Of course one can take a poll and these were the results. How representative is it across 33mn? Is Bob Geldof handing back his knighthood anything other than hypocrisy and self serving media publicity veiled as “moral preening”?

An electorate is made up of people who have the right to vote. To say that the elderly people have betrayed the youth  is utter tosh. In fact I would argue the opposite. The elderly have done the youth a favour without them knowing it. Should voters feel they must give up their democratic rights to support someone else’s cause? No! If the youth feel threatened I’m sure there is a “safe space” to seek refuge in.

How is it the globalists criticise the majority? Once again people saying Leavers are racist or ignorant or stupid totally overlooks the realities of today’s contempt of the establishment. How they cry at the British turning their backs on the EU and its humanitarianism. Yet they overlook the utter failure of the EU in this debate. How Remainers turn a blind eye to what is happening in Greece. The EU fiddled the books to get Greece in, conplained when it collapsed and continue to seek to impose Brussels control over it. The Greek people aren’t prepared to trade their democratic rights despite the crippling vice imposed  by the EU. Record unemployment, record poverty. Suicide up 50%. Yet the moral crusaders will have us believe the British have betrayed Europeans.

Other  European nations like Holland, Sweden and Greece will follow. The EU had been given a massive slap in the face for betraying the ideology the proclaim to instill – democracy.

We’re already hearing countries look to sign up to trade with the U.K. when it leaves. It’s common sense. Brits will still buy BMWs and Germans buy Wedgwood.

Then people saying the Welsh will leave? Hey? They voted Leave and were one of the strongest supporters to do so. Scotland can have a referendum to leave Britain to join the sinking Titanic that is the EU. Good  luck if they do because before long they’ll scream to get back in. Although I doubt Scotland’s finances would be good enough to qualify for Maastricht.

To question the intelligence of leavers by betraying the youth is clutching at straws. Brexit is a master stroke which will be remembered in decades to come as a wise choice.