#PVV

Germany’s shocking political crime problem

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has often been admired by outsiders for her switched-on socialist driven policy platform. Sadly, the underlying domestic security issue continues to deteriorate. Is it any wonder that we are witnessing the surge of populist parties across Europe? The following report is a damning indictment on what happens when people feel disenfranchised by the incumbent political class.

Germany’s Federal Ministry for the Interior (BfV) updated its factbook on the explosion in left and right wing groups and the rise of Salafists at home. To summarize:

In 2017, the BKA (Federal Criminal Police Office) registered 39,505 offences in the category of politically motivated crime, an increase of 20.4% over the 2014 figure.

Right wing extremist party membership has risen from 22,600 in 2015 to 24,000 in 2017. BfV notes,

In 2017, 286 offences motivated by right-wing extremism (2016: 907) were linked to accommodation centres for asylum seekers. These included 42 violent crimes (2016: 153), 16 of them arson attacks (2016: 65). One reason why the number of acts of violence motivated by right-wing extremism against accommodation centres for asylum seekers dropped is presumably the consistent practice adopted by many courts of partly imposing long prison sentences against perpetrators.

Reichsbürger” (“citizens of the Reich”) and “Selbstverwalter” (“sovereigns”) comprise groups and individuals who for various reasons deny the existence of the Federal Republic of Germany and reject its legal system. They claim that the German Reich survives, for example, they invoke conspiracy theorist arguments or refer to a law of nature of their own definition.

Some 16,500 people across Germany were classed as “Reichsbürger” or “Selbstverwalter” in 2017 (2016: 10,000). The majority of “Reichsbürger” and “Selbstverwalter” are male (approx. 74%) and over 40.

As well as being verbally aggressive, “Reichsbürger” and “Selbstverwalter” also have a great affinity with weapons. Almost 7% have a licence for firearms, a higher proportion than among the general population (approx. 2%). In 2017, some 1,100 “Reichsbürger” and “Selbstverwalter” held a gun licence. The security authorities are paying close attention to these groups because they pose a risk to others. The public authorities have revoked many licences, although the holders have often filed legal remedies against these measures. Most of the cases are still pending.

Left wing extremist party membership has risen from 26,500 in 2015 to 29,500 in 2017.

In 2017, 6,393 criminal offences were classified as left-wing politically motivated crimes with an extremist background (2016: 5,230), of which 1,648 were violent crimes (2016: 1,201). The BfV report states,

Autonomists make up the largest group of violence-oriented left-wing extremists. As they do not recognise the state’s monopoly on the use of force, autonomists generally deny the legality of government action. They regard violence against representatives of the state (e.g. police officers) as legitimate self-defence. Autonomists attempt to escalate demonstrations by means of mass militancy or they launch targeted, clandestine attacks against people or property. Their aim is to force the state to reveal its alleged “fascist nature” which it is supposedly hiding behind a democratic “mask”.

Islamic Extremists

Salafist movements in Germany have risen from 8,350 in 2015 to 10,800 in 2017 with the BfV noting on the whole, that all Islamist following in 2017 amounted to approximately 25,800 individuals, over 1,400 more than 2016. BfV did note,

The Salafist scene is the main recruiting source for jihad. Salafism in Germany enjoys undiminished popularity. In 2017, the number of Salafists in Germany once again increased by 1,000 to a total of 10,800. This makes the adherents of the Salafi ideology the only Islamist group seeing a significant increase in followers. This is particularly problematic when considering that political and jihadist Salafists share a common ideological basis. Despite the fact that political Salafists usually refrain from using violence, focussing on propaganda and recruitment activities they call “proselytising”, experience has shown that no clear distinction can be made between the two tendencies. Generally approving violence is an integral part of the Salafist ideology. Analysing the recent attacks carried out in Germany and in Europe has shown that jihadist activities are very often preceded by a Salafist radicalisation.

The BfV reports there were 30,550 foreigners posing a threat to the state in 2017 that weren’t of Islamist background. The largest part, i.e. 18,050 individuals, belong to left-wing extremist groups of foreigners, while 11,000 individuals were affiliated to right-wing extremist groups of foreigners, and 1,500 individuals had to be considered members or adherents of separatist groups of foreigners.

In the area of politically motivated crime by foreigners, 2,566 offences with an extremist background were registered (2015: 1,524), including 427 violent offences (2015: 235). The total number of criminal offences in this category thus increased by 68.4%, the number of violent crimes even by 81.7%. 

We should be careful what we wish for in Australia. The Labor Party’s promise to introduce new protection laws to compel speech is laced with danger. When people feel their freedoms have been removed one by one, eventually they will seek to take the law into their own hands. Forget civil disobedience. Australia risks heading the way of Germany.

Which part of failed EU don’t the UK politicians get?

Which part of the failed EU project don’t British politicians get? Why would anyone want to remain a member in a club which is so badly failing them? 40m more Europeans under the poverty line since 2007. 118 million in total or 22% of the EU population. Did they forget the Swiss handing back its free pass to enter the EU because they saw no value in joining a club anyone can join. Are the Brits wanting to ditch the pound in favour of a forced euro currency? What merits lie in remaining?

Two more clear examples emerged in the last week to show how more member states are rejecting the elites in Brussels.

League head and Italian Deputy PM Matteo Salvini has seen his party unseat the Democratic Party in Basilicata which had a strong hold on the region for 25 years. At the last election 60% of Italians voted for parties that rejected the EU. This poverty stricken area south of Italy has now endorsed League to take care of its affairs after decades of failure by the pro-EU centre-left incumbent.

Switch to The Netherlands. The anti immigration eurosceptic Forum for Democracy (FvD) Party, established only 2 years ago, took the largest number of seats (13) in the upper house election from zero. The FvD stripped the centre-right of its Senate majority, with PM Rutte’s party losing 7 seats to 31.

Throw on top that, former darling of the left, President Macron, has authorized the army to shoot unarmed yellow vest protesters who are rejecting nose bleed cost pressures for 19 straight weeks. Let’s remain in the EU to endorse such progressive behaviour.

If the board of directors of the EU Club live in denial and fail to listen to the grievances of a growing swell of disgruntled members there can only be one outcome. The club will go out of business. Best that the UK doesn’t renew its membership.

How many more EU-skeptics can one squeeze in a selfie?

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Last week a 31yo Austrian Sebastian Kurz swept to power in Austria with a strong anti-EU bias. Following the growing strength in nationalist parties in The Netherlands, France, Germany, Catalonia, Britain, Hungary, Italy, Poland it seems that the Czech Republic may be the next country to say, “who do you think you are kidding Mr Juncker

Tomio Okamura (far left in the picture) of the Czech Freedom and Direct Democracy Party (SPD) has experienced a huge surge in popularity in the polls on the eve of the vote suggesting he could secure 10% and form part of the governing coalition of which the center-right Ano Party is set to win.

He said that “Over the last couple of years, the EU has shown itself to be un-reformable… The elites are incapable of showing the flexibility needed to react to current and crucial problems such as terrorism and the migration of Muslim-African colonisers to Europe.

So where have we heard that before? Once again regardless of whether a growing number of people in Europe are viewed as unsympathetic, racist or bigoted towards refugees they are ‘still’ voting for these nationalist parties which can only be seen as another vote of no confidence in the EU project. How could it be anything else?

As to the anti-EU selfie, they may need a drone camera to squeeze them all in next time.

Crystal Clear Fear

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I still keep reading article after article on how the Dutch election was a clear win for the EU. Even Merkel is out there clinking champagne glasses at the crystal clear vote of confidence in the EU. The irony of all of this is simple. If the EU had confidence in its own legitimacy it wouldn’t need to say a word yet it is using every form of media at its disposal to shout out to the people “don’t worry, nothing to see here.” That only elevates to the voting population how frightened they are. Instead of seeing the sharp shift to the right in The Netherlands the fact Wilders didn’t take the PM is somehow seen as a bold rejection. His best result to hope for was the largest opposition party – job done. Wilders ceded seats back to Rutte when the PM made a more palatable restricted immigration a party platform. The Right won the day. The Left was bludgeoned. Fact. As I wrote yesterday forming a coalition has traditionally been a long drawn out affair and is expected this time to be even longer. I’m not sure what is crystal clear about that Mrs Merkel.

Germans celebrating the Dutch election result are kidding themselves

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Fact. Geert Wilders’ PVV did worse than polls (then again how much faith can you put in their accuracy these days) suggested but still won far more seats (19, but below the peak of 24) than the previous election (15) amidst the highest voter turnout in over 30 years. Somehow this was a rout? The media naturally went into group think mode lambasting the platinum haired demagogue. The German Foreign Ministry followed up tweeting “The Dutch have rejected the anti-European populist. Good for that. We need you for a strong Europe in 2017.”  In what way have the people rejected Wilders? Rutte’s party lost a quarter of the seats they held. The Labour Party imploded. The Green-Left Trudeau wannabe was a large winner. Which part of selective journalism did I miss? If anything the German Foreign Ministry just exposed how afraid it is of the instability (which it is indeed a major factor) within Europe. Moreover, the Dutch are speaking for the Dutch not the Deutsche. In fact the Dutch have experienced the foreign policies of the Deutsche in the past and they would play absolutely zero part in their decision making process.

Here is the full breakdown of the 13 parties that will comprise the new Dutch parliament:

VVD (Liberal Party, Prime Minister Mark Rutte) 31 seats vs 41 seats in 2012 elections (24% DOWN)

PvdA (Labor Party, Lodewijk Asscher)  9 seats vs 38 seats in 2012 elections. The party is current government partner with Liberal Party (75% DOWN)

PVV (Freedom Party, Geert Wilders) 19 seats vs 15 seats in 2012 elections (27% UP)

SP (Socialist Party, Emile Roemer)  14 seats vs 15 seats in 2012 elections (7% DOWN)

CDA (Christian Democrats, Sybrand Buma) 19 seats, vs 13 seats in 2012 elections (46% UP)

D66 (Democrats 66, Alexander Pechtold) 19 seats vs 12 seats in 2012 elections (58% UP)

CU (Christian Union, Gert-Jan Segers) 6 seats vs 5 seats in 2012 elections (20% UP)

GL (Green Party, Jesse Klaver) 16 seats vs 4 seats in 2012 elections (400% UP)

SGP (Reformed Party, Kees van der Staaij) recieves 3 seats (NEW)

PvdD (Party for the Animals, Marianne Thieme) recieves 5 seats (NEW)

50+ (50 Plus Party, Henk Krol) recieves 4 seats (NEW)

Denk recieves 3 seats (NEW)

Forum for Democracy gets 2 seats (NEW)

5 parties that had no seats in the 2012 parliament took 17 this time. The average time to form a government in Holland is 75 days. Now that the combinations to form a government become even more complex because Rutte and Asscher suffered huge blows means that may take longer. A minimum of 4 parties is required.

So here is Germany celebrating more political gridlock and compromise, the last thing that any voter wants. As written prior to the election, the PVV was never likely to form a government because most of the other parties vowed to spurn it. Wilders had to win at least 70 seats on his own and hope on a few other’s to take the PM’s role. An unlikely feat.

The extrapolations are that this is likely to dent Marine Le Pen’s chances in the French Presidential elections. The parallels are farcical. Brexit showed that the Brits wanted nothing more to do with the EU, the Italians turned a referendum into a choice to boot out PM Renzi to usher change in favour of Italexit and we don’t even have to mention the Greeks. Yet the Germans and EU officialdom think that this is a precious victory and vote of confidence in the EU.

The idea that PVV was a party for racists and bigoted whites, note that 14% of Dutch-Surinamese voted for Wilders. The majority of them like PvDA but still it puts paid the notion that Wilders was running on the campaign outlined by the biased media. Most Hindus in The Hague voted PVV ostensibly because of its anti-Islam ticket, DENK garnered a lion’s share of Turkish and Moroccan immigrant votes because it opposed PVV.

The most important sign from the Dutch elections is that people stepped up to vote in greater numbers. What we got was even more fragmented politics when some of the silent majority that has stayed on the sidelines stepped up. German politicians should think far more deeply about what might happen if angry Germans who have seen their leaders turn their country turned into a doormat decide to show up at the polling booths.

The Dutch have not had the type of terrorist incidents that have afflicted France and Germany. It is on another level. Having said that, even if Le Pen is defeated there can be no doubt that her success has to date been nothing short of stellar. So much so that the EU, responding to a request from the French judiciary, caused EU MEPs in the legal affairs committee to vote to lift her immunity. How stupid do they take the citizens of the members states for? That she NOW risks being prosecuted for posting pictures of ISIS beheadings in 2015, something that provides proof as to why she pushes the platform she does. If it was such a terrible crime why did they choose to do nothing at the time (i.e. 2015) ? Could it be they finally see her taking the French presidency and with that her anti-EU stance.

In summary there is an irony with regards to the EU and Germany celebrating this way about the Dutch election. It shows they have learnt nothing. Even worse is they fail to see that Europe’s history has always been fractured by cultural, language and nationalist lines.  No different over 100s of years. The idea of one Europe is an impossibility. The attitudes of those who believe in the pipe dream like the German Foreign Ministry are exactly the reason the EU will fail – the Dutch result is signal that the supranational body has to rapidly reform to prevent its implosion. Yet they continue to be a ship of fools. The Dutch are with themselves.

Will the Dutch get to live in the Wilderness?

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The first round of European elections in 2017 kicks off on Wednesday this week. The betting agencies have Wilders’ Party for Freedom most likely to gain the most seats. Truth be told, betting agencies have totally missed Brexit and Trump. Poor old Paddy Power missed the mark so bad they paid out on Clinton before the coronation (sorry election). There is no doubt that Wilder’s support is rising. He needs 75 seats to form government in his own right. The best polls have him at 36 but many parties have openly said they’ll form a cordon sanitaire to prevent a PVV government. The problem nowadays with forming a coalition to block another party which is sharply rising in relevance is fraught with danger. The mood of the people signaling such  change is not something that can be brushed aside. If the coalition doesn’t lean some of its policies toward a party that triples its seat count and wins the greatest number is kidding themselves.

On Dec 12 CM wrote:

“Well isn’t it interesting when the legal system contributes to the very thing it’s trying to gag. Last week the Dutch anti Muslim immigration/anti-EU Freedom Party’s (PVV) head Geert Wilders was charged and convicted of discrimination and fined €5,000. The court deemed his comments about Moroccan immigrants (who Gilders claimed were responsible for a disproportionate amount of crime and should be prevented from coming here) were inappropriate.

Well the court may have liked its decision but would be voters in next year’s elections certainly didn’t.

A poll ,conducted by the Maurice de Hond Institute, after the ruling showed if legislative elections due in March 2017 were held this week, Wilders’ PVV would pick up 36 out of 150 seats in the lower House of Parliament , making it the largest political party.

Before the trial began on October 31, the PVV was credited with 27 seats. During the trial it rose it rose to 34 seats. It currently has 12.

The poll also found that Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s Liberals would place second with 23 seats, against 40 today, and his junior coalition partners, the Labour Party (PvdA), would gain only 10 seats, compared with 35 today.

What it does show is that more people are sick and tired of being gagged. Wilders was acquitted of hate speech yet he struck a chord with many who don’t feel safe and are concerned their values and culture are being cast aside in the interests of diversity which seems to be a one way street.”

It remains a long shot that Wilders could become Prime Minister because unless he romps home other parties will form a cordon sanitaire to block PVV from forming government. However if PVV tops the number of seats, even a party led by Rutte would have to gravitate toward the hardline stance of Wilders. Only the Reformed Party (SGP) which is expected to get a handful of seats has agreed to potentially partner. The Elderly Party (50PLUS) is willing to negotiate with PVV if it withdraws the proposed immigration ban (highly unlikely) and supports their wish to lower the retirement age.

Even if the PVV loses, it should be no comfort for the EU. Juncker’s recent musings that the UK may return someday reveals yet again why their empire is crumbling. Denial is its biggest problem.