#northkorea

F*ck Trump?

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Would DeNiro have got the same rapturous applause at the Tony’s for saying “F&ck Trump” if it were held this evening? Most likely answer is yes. Hollywood and the liberal mainstream media outlets can’t wipe the bitter taste from their mouth that the man they despise so much has done something not seen since Reagan and the fall of the Berlin Wall. While details of any negotiations are sketchy it is without a doubt a milestone in history.

They say “it takes one to know one.” Even if it holds true that both are narcissistic madmen, that’s what it took to achieve these talks. This is the power of unpredictability. Unlike the gutless and all too predictable diplomacy of recent decades, expediency has not been put before principle. It took a horses’s head in the bed to make Kim realize that he must reform. Better to do so on terms that are in his favour than face military reprisals. Sometimes being the most powerful military in the world has its advantages. After all Al Capone said, “I grew up in a tough neighborhood where I learnt you could get much further with a kind word and a gun than just a kind word.”

How political elitism has been exposed since he took office. While Trump has had a volatile revolving door in his own administration, how telling to see the smiles wiped off the face of G-7 cronies. Instead of working for the greater good of constituents they seem insistent on padding future careers in bodies they have set up for life outside politics. Spineless and literally “brow” beaten.

Unconventional, brash, rude, petulant, moody or whatever else the liberals want to rightly or wrongly categorize Trump as, DeNiro would be well advised that the global audience witnessing Trump shaking hands with Kim are probably overwhelmingly applauding the President indirectly saying “F*ck DeNiro”

Will liberal media go back to reruns of Stormy Daniels or admit they have been so wrong?  Expect belittling articles downplaying the significance of these talks. Whatever they scribe the script for the 2020 re-election is already written, even if Bill Maher gets his wish for a recession.

Xi and Trump summit In Singapore

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On May 25th, CM wrote after the spat between Trump & Kim, “It will be China sending Kim back to the meeting table with Trump because it will ultimately be managing the protectorate after any peace is signed for its own geopolitical aims. China does NOT want US friendly forces on its border. Best keep the buffer by getting Kim to accept a lesser deal where he gets to keep his life. For a man in his early 30s he can either choose to go down fighting or see out his days with the embezzled billions and bevy of beauties in his concubine.

Shouldn’t the fact that China provided Kim Jong Un with a “private” jet to get to the summit speak volumes about who his interests represent? While the US State Dept might quibble over minibar expenses at his hotel in Singapore, President Xi is showing he’s truly behind the outcomes from North Korea’s side. The Chairman is but a puppet.

China only wants reunification if that means US Forces leave the South. That is unlikely to be on the cards so Kim can de-nuclearise and clutch to the bosom of Xi.

As CM wrote back in August 2017, China will turn North Korea into a puppet state. Kim knows it is best to hitch his wagon to the world’s most ruthless regional power in coming decades. He only needs to bear 6.5 years of Trump. President Xi will be around for decades.

Folly of The Economissed

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On a flight back to Tokyo this week a copy of The Economist was in the magazine rack. A subscription had long been cancelled for its plunge into yet another group think rag. A long time ago, the magazine was regarded as the go to for objective journalism from economics, geopolitics through to specials. Now it is little more than a cheerleader. A chance was given to see if things had changed. If anything it has gotten worse. This article on the peace deal only reinforces the pathetic bias and wish that Trump losing is preferable to any alternative including world peace.

For no sooner had Trump sent a letter calling the peace talks with North Korea off, The Economist was writing about humiliation. They’ve got to be kidding?

While even the blind can see any postponement is a setback, it is not without reason. Trump has made absolutely clear from the beginning – ‘peace or business as usual. Your move Kim.’ 

This started when Kim Jong-Un fired angry remarks when long scheduled war games were  commenced by the South. If one wanted to gift the upper hand to the North Koreans in the negotiations then stopping annual war games would be a great way to do it. It was tactical.

Glass jaw or not, firing salvos at Vice President Pence or standing up US envoys is not conduct becoming peace talks. Trump’s letter sounded somewhat childish with respect to comparing arsenals again but the point being made to Kim is clear – “we’re not playing. Put up or shut up!

This is exactly what you’d want Trump to do. Not some Obama era red line which crossed carries no consequences. This is exactly why there is so much geopolitical instability thanks to 8 years of utter weakness in foreign policy. This isn’t about humiliation at all. This about a world leader who is using clear military and economic strengths at the negotiating table with a dictator who 6 months ago threatened to nuke Guam. We should not want Trump to appease at any cost which we’ve seen throughout history carry devastation.

The reason Kim was drawn to the negotiating table was because China realized the new sheriff wasn’t bluffing. Why was Beijing Kim’s first state visit before shaking hands on the 38th parallel with President Moon?? He was seeking assurances from the other dictator on staying in power lest booking a plot of land in exile in Sichuan province if things require him to step down.

Kim needs to realize that the ‘throwing toys out of the cot strategy’ of decades past no longer works. He was hoping to get an apology from Trump along with better concessions ahead of the negotiations. Trump essentially told him the ‘art of the deal’ in that the status quo remains if he doesn’t wake up to harsh realities. Sending home three American hostages was a token.

It will be China sending Kim back to the meeting table with Trump because it will ultimately be managing the protectorate after any peace is signed for its own geopolitical aims. China does NOT want US friendly forces on its border. Best keep the buffer by getting Kim to accept a lesser deal where he gets to keep his life. For a man in his early 30s he can either choose to go down fighting or see out his days with the embezzled billions and bevy of beauties in his concubine.

To take The Economist at its journalistic integrity, it will be secretly happy if North Korea doesn’t sue for peace because any victory for Trump is something it can’t swallow. For the magazine to have that level of disingenuous editorial speaks volumes about turning a once prestigious brand into a tabloid. Reading through the blurb of The Economist’s 2017 Annual Report and the trends tell the story.

How would you like to save the planet?

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Climate alarmists are an interesting mob. E&E Research cites that moving North Koreans toward basic necessities you and I take for granted (e.g. electricity) might necessitate coal fired power stations being erected. That would lead to a growth in emissions as the country is rich in coal reserves. This must be stopped immediately.

E&E’s Daniel Kish said, “North Koreans reduce carbon dioxide emissions by eating, rather than burning, twigs. That’s what central control always ends up doing,

So it would seem that keeping North Koreans in the dark and encouraging its dicactor to keep developing nukes and oppressing the population is preferable in order to stop global warming. Why not keep all developing nations from jumping on the grid? Why not sacrifice their people for the greater good of the world. How can E&E continue its work if sacrifices aren’t made elsewhere?!.

Saving the planet is a grand idea…but how? Is it any wonder climate skeptics keep questioning the science….?

Who will get the Nobel Peace Prize for helping end the Korean War – Kim, Moon & Xi or Trump?

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Will President Donald Trump be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for getting Kim & Moon to the peace table? It is unlikely in so far as the Norwegian Nobel Committee would fear the full weight of international opinion (aka mainstream media) for doing so. Surely they wouldn’t risk making a mockery of such a coveted award? Then again a one Barack Obama was handed one less than 9 months into his first term on the stated basis of a noble quest for the Holy Grail of world peace rather than anything actually achieved. In 2016 alone, the Obama administration dropped 26,171 bombs on enemies. Not bad for a serial appeaser. A Nobel prize has even been awarded to a multi billion dollar embezzling terrorist of a self appointed authority, so Kim Jong-un is in with a shot.

Will Trump receive any credit (even without a Nobel) for pushing ‘Rocketman/The Fat Kid’ to the negotiating table? Probably not. How come no other administrations were able to achieve something that was relatively easier when the state of the North’s arsenal was considerably less lethal? Kim threatened Guam less than half a year ago. Trump didn’t back down and the North Korean dictator clearly realized from Twitter that the most powerful man in the world wasn’t all bluster. President Xi may well have played a solid hand in pushing Kim to sue for peace negotiations. In the interests of President-for-life Xi, his foe Trump has a maximum 7 years left to meddle. If Korea gets a peace deal, Xi can play hardball on the peninsula if a softer President enters the White House thereafter. Then he can take a stab at Taiwan. Xi can afford to wait.

We should not forget that Kim Jong-Un travelled to China on his first ‘overseas’ visit earlier this year. Best get the approval of a real dictator before progressing. Kim was there to get Beijing’s blessing to ensure North Korean sovereignty come what may so as to maintain the desired geographical buffer to pro-US nations.

Noone said peace isn’t desirable. The question is what price must one pay to get it? There are too many incidents in the past where signing peace treaties with dictatorial regimes have ended in disaster. Hitler/Chamberlain (Munich Agreement), Hitler/Stalin (Pact of Steel), Putin/Merkel/Macron (suggestion of UN in Ukraine), Le Duc Tho/Kissinger (Paris Peace Accords over Vietnam), Xerxes II/Leonidas (Greece) etc.

Will part of the denuclearization ‘deal’ call upon a withdrawal of US Forces from the Korean Peninsula? Would the US go for that? Highly unlikely. Would Moon be so gullible as to suggest a (slow) withdrawal? Of course he has the right to demand a foreign garrison pack up and go home. Trump may have pushed China and NK to act but he’d prefer the status quo than to roll over and vacate the premises. China wins in either scenario. America certainly doesn’t want to pay for the same real estate twice. Some quarters in South Korea must surely want the US military to stay as an insurance policy. Afterall how can one trust someone who comes from a dynasty that kills its own people and assassinates family members? Worryingly Moon looks to have a certain ring of Chamberlain about him.

It was clear that North Korea was dictating the moves at the Winter Olympics. It was South Korea who funded the $3mn in travel costs for the cheer squad. Anything that looked to mock the North Koreans was swiftly dealt with. It spoke volumes about which Korea was calling the shots. Anyone impersonating any other world leader could do so with reckless aplomb. Anything resembling Kim Jong-un  was quickly removed from sight. Tyrannies rarely do humour and sadly not enough democracies defend it. Still it is hardly an encouraging sign for even handed peace talks when one side looks to appease in this way.

Kim Jong-un is smart enough to realize at such a youthful stage in his life that he probably has another 40-50 years left in him. Reunification only works if he is given sanctuary. Idi Amin saw the beauty of a life in exile in Saudi Arabia. If Kim Jong-un can relax in Sichuan Province it maybe a dignified way out. One can bet his ‘some are more equal than others’ inner sanctum would rather the two stay separated. They would stand to lose way more than Kim.  It would be ridiculous to assume that Kim could be a major cog driving a reunification process with such an abysmal human rights record. Name a despot who would willing cede authoritarian rule much less without a deal which would exonerate him from any international criminal court that he would be held accountable for under a functioning democracy?

The South Koreans have had a think tank in Berlin researching the effect of reunification in Germany. The former West is still heavily subsidizing the former East. Depopulation (-15% between 1989 & 2013), unemployment rates (higher today that 1989) and inferior GDP per capita (27% less) are all a feature of the former communist state vs the federal republic over the last three decades.

How easily could South Korea absorb the North? West Germany had a population of 63mn in 1989 vs 16mn in East Germany or 4:1. South Korea has 53mn vs North Korea’s 24mn or 2:1. West Germany had a 2.3x GDP/capita ratio to the East in 1989. South Korea has a 52x GDP/capita ratio to the North. Reunification for Korea isn’t an apples to apples comparison with Germany. While Samsung might relish the prospects of tapping a cheap labour pool to build washing machines, the South would likely face far higher integration costs than the Germans. Even 30 years ago East Germany had a GDP/capita 17x that of North Korea.

In any event the only sure outcome of peace on the Korea Peninsula is that President Trump will get next to zero credit in the media. Wailing about the reckless diplomacy of an unhinged dictator will be the main with a few conceding it was at best a fluke.

Usually a mutually exclusive headline in WaPo

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Surprising to see such an opinion piece in WaPo. Usually mutually exclusive subject matter with such a title. Admittedly the author said she had incredibly low expectations.

My Button is bigger than yours

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Purile but effective. The message has gone around the world. How is it more people are worried about his language than the ability for a nation like the DPRK to possess a capability to strike the US? How many times have we seen the North Korean’s nuke technology end up  in the wrong hands – e.g. Syria. Spurn the US for its post war foreign policy but it’s a known devil.

Back to mine is bigger than yours – unorthodox message delivery but why is anyone in the least bit surprised? How can anyone feel outrage at something that has happened almost daily for nearly 12 months straight? One should be howling if he wasn’t doing it! Then one could truly call him an unhinged lunatic because one would be worried that he was unpredictable.

Let’s not forget that China has recently told the world what it thinks of the UN sanctions by continuing to trade oil with the rogue nation. Trump told Xi than no amount of theatre by hosting a dinner in the Forbidden City will give them any free passes like his predecessors. Let’s not forget the farewell message sent by China to Obama on his last state visit – no stairs, no red carpet and no senior delegates. He exited by the emergency stairs of Air Force One. What a humiliation.

It is reasonably unstatesmanlike to be sure but the message is pointed at China not Kim. Quit screwing around is the message. If China doesn’t take care of business with its ‘tenant’ the US will evict him for it.

For all those panicking that a nuke strike is on the horizon Korean CDS spreads are 52. At the first stage of the verbal exchange several months back they were mid 70s. Yawn.