#nigelfarage

Dictator with term limits

While no one can doubt that Trump polarizes opinion, do his detractors honestly think they will win the debate by mowing a giant phallus into a lawn? Will this attempt to (literally) take the moral low ground somehow swing those who hold different opinions?

If the dictator moniker were true he would be the world’s most incompetent executor of such an office. Sadly Trump has between 1.5 and 5.5 years (likely the latter) to remain as DOTUS. Instead of 99% of the population voting for him like a Xi Jinping, Kim Jong-un or Hitler, Trump will likely garner around half. If Americans truly wanted a real dictator they would be better off voting for someone who could get 99%. Sadly democracies don’t operate like that.

The Queen, who long remembers the 80 year relationship which preserved her monarchy, knows that after Trump leaves office, the UK will still continue to have a strong bond with America. Her Majesty won’t resort to petty snubs of its head of state because she feels the need to kowtow to the intolerant mindsets of a few.

Will Americans want to see politicians like Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry show such conditional support for American democracy? Did she call for protests when the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia visited? A man with pretty questionable actions regarding journalists in embassies. No she did not.

There are far more effective ways to show courtesy to visiting dignitaries. As CM mentioned yesterday, Trump’s tweets are unstatesmanlike. It doesn’t make Thornberry or Khan’s any better.

Perhaps the Queen is sending the world a message about “the long game.” She probably knows a thing or two about diplomacy as the world’s longest serving monarch. Her state dinner invitation list is the perfect representation of who she feels needs prioritization. What an embarrassment that the UK government did not extend the invite in the first place.

God save our Queen!

Westminster gets its second referendum on Brexit

If the House of Commons needed any reconfirmation of the mandate to leave the E.U. – because there was ambiguity over the Brexit referendum – this should clear it all up. Interesting how Brexit stops at Hadrian’s Wall. If a second referendum was held, Leave would be an even bigger margin. Interesting to see the oxymoronically named Change UK (Remain) had no impact.

EU populists thumping establishment

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EU election results so far are a disaster for the eurocrats. This was predictable. As CM has long argued, Brussels has continually ignored the issues of member states. Since 2007, poverty levels have grown from 78mn to 118mn of the EU population. UK won’t be the last to leave the EU, unless the bureaucracy in Brussels makes considerable reforms. CM bets it won’t.

UK: Brexit Party – 31.8% (populist), Tories – 7.6% (incumbent). Tories fallen from 20%. Of interest, Brexit took 38% of the West Midlands which is a slap in the face for Corbyn’s Labour Party. Even Islington, Corbyn’s home constituency, saw Labour fall behind the Lib Dems.

Greece: New Democracy 33.3% (populist), Syriza 23.9% (incumbent/socialist) – snap elections to be held

France: RN – 23.5% (nationalist), LREM 22.5% (incumbent) – Le Pen has called for snap elections.

Germany: CDU – 28.8% (incumbent), AfD – 10.8% (nationalist)

Austria: OVP – 34.9% (incumbent/nationalist), FPO – 17.2% (incumbent/nationalist)

Poland: PiS – 42.4% (incumbent/nationalist)

Italy: Liga -33.6% (populist/incumbent) + M5S – 16.7% (populist/incumbent)

Bulgaria: GERB – 30.1% (incumbent/populist)

Hungary: Fidesz – 52.1% (nationalist/incumbent)

Latvia: JV – 26% (populist/incumbent)

Sweden: Socialist Democrats – 23.6% (incumbent), Sweden Democrats – 15.4% (populist)

Czech: ANO – 21.2% (populist/incumbent)

Romania: PNL – 25.6% (populist), PSD – 21.7% (incumbent)

While results are Still coming in, it seems that the populist swell has only gathered momentum.

Voter turnout to EU elections is generally weak but this is the strongest showing since 1994. This is entirely self-inflicted. Europeans are growing increasingly frustrated at the EU’s authoritarian behaviour. The sooner this project fails the better.

While total seat numbers aren’t fully decided, the percentage terms are undoubtedly going to send shockwaves through the E.U. establishment.

Brexit Party’s want to change politics for good

Doctors, lawyers, entrepreneurs, housewives, fishers etc. Ordinary people fed up with the duplicitous House of Commons which has failed to deliver on Brexit. Very sensible campaign and is there any wonder why in the space of a few months, the Brexit Party is polling at more than Labour and the Tories combined. Forget incumbency. If only Australia had a credible third option to shake the orthodoxy. It will eventually come because neither party has got the people at heart.

Could the message be any clearer for Theresa May?

The latest YouGov opinion poll has Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party at 28%, Labour at 22% and the Tories at 13%. Interestingly YouGov polled 5x as many people as usual. Very damning indictment on Theresa May’s lack of decisive leadership. The PM has had no authority from the beginning of this process and remaining (no pun intended) in the top job is toxic for the Conservatives.

Nowhere to top in less than 4 months

Populism in Europe is thriving. Forget the notion that new parties will always lie on the fringes. The populist Dutch FvD gained the most number of new seats in the upper house after only 2 years in existence. The Italian 5 Star Movement is less than 10 years old and has a PM leading the country. Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party is but 4 months old and look at the results.

A YouGov poll released yesterday ahead of the May 23rd European elections revealed the following:

The Brexit Party: 27%

The Labour Party: 22%

The Conservative Party: 15%

This is what happens when the population feels betrayed by the longest running parliamentary democracy in history. To think the Tories have been around since 1834. Mrs May has all but killed it.

This is what happens when politicians bury their judgement and allow incompetence to flourish. A self inflicted wound. Even if Farage doesn’t end up contesting the European elections, the UK elections should see a very strong result for The Brexit Party.

Note social media following on Twitter (taking into account the infancy of the Brexit Party):

The Brexit Party: 91,000

The Labour Party: 669,000

The Conservative Party: 372,000

UKIP: 210,000

Leaders

Nigel Farage: 1,200,000

Jeremy Corbyn: 1,900,000

Theresa May: 826,300

Gerard Batten: 53,100

On Facebook:

The Brexit Party: 66,200

The Labour Party: 1,034,000

The Conservative Party: 652,000

UKIP: 582,000

Leaders:

Nigel Farage: 830,000

Jeremy Corbyn: 1,425,000

Theresa May: 516,000

Gerard Batten: 734

In 4 months that is solid progress. Voter anger will only grow with the dithering in the Commons. Expect Brexit Party social media and polling figures to continue to surge.

Populist Finns Party set to more than double number of seats

The nationalist, anti-immigrant and eurosceptic Finns Party is set to grow seats from 17 in 2015 to 38 in today’s election, or represent around 17% of parliament. The party election video is an interesting one to say the least.

Whatever one’s personal views on populism, in Europe it is the fastest growing segment in politics. With 118m Europeans below the poverty line, 50% higher than 2007 is it any wonder the citizens of many member states have had enough of EU control. Finland has only 15.7% (up from 12.6% in 2007) poverty as a percentage vs 22.4% (16% in 2007) in the EU-28 but that is enough to trigger the ice cold welfare state to revolt.

Mrs May, do you understand more EU members don’t want to be held captive by Brussels?