#M5S

EU populists thumping establishment

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EU election results so far are a disaster for the eurocrats. This was predictable. As CM has long argued, Brussels has continually ignored the issues of member states. Since 2007, poverty levels have grown from 78mn to 118mn of the EU population. UK won’t be the last to leave the EU, unless the bureaucracy in Brussels makes considerable reforms. CM bets it won’t.

UK: Brexit Party – 31.8% (populist), Tories – 7.6% (incumbent). Tories fallen from 20%. Of interest, Brexit took 38% of the West Midlands which is a slap in the face for Corbyn’s Labour Party. Even Islington, Corbyn’s home constituency, saw Labour fall behind the Lib Dems.

Greece: New Democracy 33.3% (populist), Syriza 23.9% (incumbent/socialist) – snap elections to be held

France: RN – 23.5% (nationalist), LREM 22.5% (incumbent) – Le Pen has called for snap elections.

Germany: CDU – 28.8% (incumbent), AfD – 10.8% (nationalist)

Austria: OVP – 34.9% (incumbent/nationalist), FPO – 17.2% (incumbent/nationalist)

Poland: PiS – 42.4% (incumbent/nationalist)

Italy: Liga -33.6% (populist/incumbent) + M5S – 16.7% (populist/incumbent)

Bulgaria: GERB – 30.1% (incumbent/populist)

Hungary: Fidesz – 52.1% (nationalist/incumbent)

Latvia: JV – 26% (populist/incumbent)

Sweden: Socialist Democrats – 23.6% (incumbent), Sweden Democrats – 15.4% (populist)

Czech: ANO – 21.2% (populist/incumbent)

Romania: PNL – 25.6% (populist), PSD – 21.7% (incumbent)

While results are Still coming in, it seems that the populist swell has only gathered momentum.

Voter turnout to EU elections is generally weak but this is the strongest showing since 1994. This is entirely self-inflicted. Europeans are growing increasingly frustrated at the EU’s authoritarian behaviour. The sooner this project fails the better.

While total seat numbers aren’t fully decided, the percentage terms are undoubtedly going to send shockwaves through the E.U. establishment.

Germany’s shocking political crime problem

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has often been admired by outsiders for her switched-on socialist driven policy platform. Sadly, the underlying domestic security issue continues to deteriorate. Is it any wonder that we are witnessing the surge of populist parties across Europe? The following report is a damning indictment on what happens when people feel disenfranchised by the incumbent political class.

Germany’s Federal Ministry for the Interior (BfV) updated its factbook on the explosion in left and right wing groups and the rise of Salafists at home. To summarize:

In 2017, the BKA (Federal Criminal Police Office) registered 39,505 offences in the category of politically motivated crime, an increase of 20.4% over the 2014 figure.

Right wing extremist party membership has risen from 22,600 in 2015 to 24,000 in 2017. BfV notes,

In 2017, 286 offences motivated by right-wing extremism (2016: 907) were linked to accommodation centres for asylum seekers. These included 42 violent crimes (2016: 153), 16 of them arson attacks (2016: 65). One reason why the number of acts of violence motivated by right-wing extremism against accommodation centres for asylum seekers dropped is presumably the consistent practice adopted by many courts of partly imposing long prison sentences against perpetrators.

Reichsbürger” (“citizens of the Reich”) and “Selbstverwalter” (“sovereigns”) comprise groups and individuals who for various reasons deny the existence of the Federal Republic of Germany and reject its legal system. They claim that the German Reich survives, for example, they invoke conspiracy theorist arguments or refer to a law of nature of their own definition.

Some 16,500 people across Germany were classed as “Reichsbürger” or “Selbstverwalter” in 2017 (2016: 10,000). The majority of “Reichsbürger” and “Selbstverwalter” are male (approx. 74%) and over 40.

As well as being verbally aggressive, “Reichsbürger” and “Selbstverwalter” also have a great affinity with weapons. Almost 7% have a licence for firearms, a higher proportion than among the general population (approx. 2%). In 2017, some 1,100 “Reichsbürger” and “Selbstverwalter” held a gun licence. The security authorities are paying close attention to these groups because they pose a risk to others. The public authorities have revoked many licences, although the holders have often filed legal remedies against these measures. Most of the cases are still pending.

Left wing extremist party membership has risen from 26,500 in 2015 to 29,500 in 2017.

In 2017, 6,393 criminal offences were classified as left-wing politically motivated crimes with an extremist background (2016: 5,230), of which 1,648 were violent crimes (2016: 1,201). The BfV report states,

Autonomists make up the largest group of violence-oriented left-wing extremists. As they do not recognise the state’s monopoly on the use of force, autonomists generally deny the legality of government action. They regard violence against representatives of the state (e.g. police officers) as legitimate self-defence. Autonomists attempt to escalate demonstrations by means of mass militancy or they launch targeted, clandestine attacks against people or property. Their aim is to force the state to reveal its alleged “fascist nature” which it is supposedly hiding behind a democratic “mask”.

Islamic Extremists

Salafist movements in Germany have risen from 8,350 in 2015 to 10,800 in 2017 with the BfV noting on the whole, that all Islamist following in 2017 amounted to approximately 25,800 individuals, over 1,400 more than 2016. BfV did note,

The Salafist scene is the main recruiting source for jihad. Salafism in Germany enjoys undiminished popularity. In 2017, the number of Salafists in Germany once again increased by 1,000 to a total of 10,800. This makes the adherents of the Salafi ideology the only Islamist group seeing a significant increase in followers. This is particularly problematic when considering that political and jihadist Salafists share a common ideological basis. Despite the fact that political Salafists usually refrain from using violence, focussing on propaganda and recruitment activities they call “proselytising”, experience has shown that no clear distinction can be made between the two tendencies. Generally approving violence is an integral part of the Salafist ideology. Analysing the recent attacks carried out in Germany and in Europe has shown that jihadist activities are very often preceded by a Salafist radicalisation.

The BfV reports there were 30,550 foreigners posing a threat to the state in 2017 that weren’t of Islamist background. The largest part, i.e. 18,050 individuals, belong to left-wing extremist groups of foreigners, while 11,000 individuals were affiliated to right-wing extremist groups of foreigners, and 1,500 individuals had to be considered members or adherents of separatist groups of foreigners.

In the area of politically motivated crime by foreigners, 2,566 offences with an extremist background were registered (2015: 1,524), including 427 violent offences (2015: 235). The total number of criminal offences in this category thus increased by 68.4%, the number of violent crimes even by 81.7%. 

We should be careful what we wish for in Australia. The Labor Party’s promise to introduce new protection laws to compel speech is laced with danger. When people feel their freedoms have been removed one by one, eventually they will seek to take the law into their own hands. Forget civil disobedience. Australia risks heading the way of Germany.

Nowhere to top in less than 4 months

Populism in Europe is thriving. Forget the notion that new parties will always lie on the fringes. The populist Dutch FvD gained the most number of new seats in the upper house after only 2 years in existence. The Italian 5 Star Movement is less than 10 years old and has a PM leading the country. Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party is but 4 months old and look at the results.

A YouGov poll released yesterday ahead of the May 23rd European elections revealed the following:

The Brexit Party: 27%

The Labour Party: 22%

The Conservative Party: 15%

This is what happens when the population feels betrayed by the longest running parliamentary democracy in history. To think the Tories have been around since 1834. Mrs May has all but killed it.

This is what happens when politicians bury their judgement and allow incompetence to flourish. A self inflicted wound. Even if Farage doesn’t end up contesting the European elections, the UK elections should see a very strong result for The Brexit Party.

Note social media following on Twitter (taking into account the infancy of the Brexit Party):

The Brexit Party: 91,000

The Labour Party: 669,000

The Conservative Party: 372,000

UKIP: 210,000

Leaders

Nigel Farage: 1,200,000

Jeremy Corbyn: 1,900,000

Theresa May: 826,300

Gerard Batten: 53,100

On Facebook:

The Brexit Party: 66,200

The Labour Party: 1,034,000

The Conservative Party: 652,000

UKIP: 582,000

Leaders:

Nigel Farage: 830,000

Jeremy Corbyn: 1,425,000

Theresa May: 516,000

Gerard Batten: 734

In 4 months that is solid progress. Voter anger will only grow with the dithering in the Commons. Expect Brexit Party social media and polling figures to continue to surge.

Which part of failed EU don’t the UK politicians get?

Which part of the failed EU project don’t British politicians get? Why would anyone want to remain a member in a club which is so badly failing them? 40m more Europeans under the poverty line since 2007. 118 million in total or 22% of the EU population. Did they forget the Swiss handing back its free pass to enter the EU because they saw no value in joining a club anyone can join. Are the Brits wanting to ditch the pound in favour of a forced euro currency? What merits lie in remaining?

Two more clear examples emerged in the last week to show how more member states are rejecting the elites in Brussels.

League head and Italian Deputy PM Matteo Salvini has seen his party unseat the Democratic Party in Basilicata which had a strong hold on the region for 25 years. At the last election 60% of Italians voted for parties that rejected the EU. This poverty stricken area south of Italy has now endorsed League to take care of its affairs after decades of failure by the pro-EU centre-left incumbent.

Switch to The Netherlands. The anti immigration eurosceptic Forum for Democracy (FvD) Party, established only 2 years ago, took the largest number of seats (13) in the upper house election from zero. The FvD stripped the centre-right of its Senate majority, with PM Rutte’s party losing 7 seats to 31.

Throw on top that, former darling of the left, President Macron, has authorized the army to shoot unarmed yellow vest protesters who are rejecting nose bleed cost pressures for 19 straight weeks. Let’s remain in the EU to endorse such progressive behaviour.

If the board of directors of the EU Club live in denial and fail to listen to the grievances of a growing swell of disgruntled members there can only be one outcome. The club will go out of business. Best that the UK doesn’t renew its membership.

Grazie Mille?

German MEP Elmar Brok has apparently told German media that Nigel Farage has secured Deputy PM Matteo Salvini’s assurance that the Italians will block the plan to extend the Brexit deadline. All 27 EU nations must unilaterally agree to such terms. Nice to see one nation state honour the democracy of another.

Note that even left-leaning UK House of Commons speaker John Bercow has said that May’s mildly altered versions can’t be brought before the House again for another vote. He’s right. Nothing short of wholesale change would alter the current drubbings.

How quickly can Eurocrats back down to offer the deal they probably ought to have done in the beginning? Did the British public ask for a watered down relationship with the EU at the time they voted to leave? No.

Hopefully Farage’s plan works. Sad to see that it takes a foreign leader to uphold democracy in the UK than the very people elected to do so.

Or do we cynically need to consider the idea that the EU will cut Italy some generous concessions to vote with the herd. Although siding with the British forces much needed change within the EU which probably can achieve the same result.

Actions speak louder than laughs

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While the mainstream media has blown much hot air about the UN GA audience laughing at POTUS during his speech, where was the very same audience backing the poster boy of virtue signaling and globalist politics? Here is a picture of Canadian PM Trudeau addressing the UN General Assembly during the Nelson Mandela Peace Summit on Sep 24th. Worse, a whole section of them are on their mobile phones. As impolite as deleting/sending emails during the speech of any world leader (or anyone for that matter) is, at least being laughed at suggests the audience was paying attention to the content, as ridiculous as anyone may have made it out to be. As much as Trump’s boasting and glass jaw were on full display, it was standing room only, because love or hate him, his words have global ramifications.

While French President Macron might have sounded sensible castigating Trump’s America First view as fanning the flames of nationalism around the world, perhaps he might have reflected on the shift toward populist parties across Europe occurring well before either took office. Macron should remind himself that anti-EU leader of the far right Front National, Marine Le Pen, achieved twice the vote ever achieved by her party. 35%.

People may not have noticed but Sweden’s newly appointed PM Stefan Lofven has lost a no confidence motion yesterday. The right leaning Sweden Democrats achieved the fastest growth in the Sep 9 election, taking almost 18% of the vote from 12.9%, holding the balance of power despite the establishment is reluctant to wed . All the while,  3 weeks have passed and a no confidence motion has occurred.

Italy is now run by an anti-EU M5S & anti-immigrant League coalition. Austria voted in a EU-skeptic party led by a 32yo Chancellor Sebastian Kurz. The Brits voted for Brexit. The Dutch awarded the fastest growing share to platinum haired Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party. The Hungarians and Polish have openly told Juncker where to stick his views on forced migration. Even Chancellor Merkel had the worst showing of her party in 70 years as the anti-immigrant Alternative for Deutschland took 13% of the vote, achieving 94 seats in the Bundestag mostly at the expense of Merkel’s CDU & former European Parliament President Schulz’s SPD.

Poor old Justin Trudeau had a member of his own party, Leona Alleslev, defect to the Conservatives stating she was ‘concerned about the government’s handling of the economy.’ It is one thing for the opposition to berate the government for poor stewardship but it is deeply embarrassing to lose people from one’s own party due to a lack of confidence.

So yes, we can collectively laugh at Trump for his bluster, chest beating and itchy Twitter fingers, but one would hope the mockers at the UNGA would glance in the mirror and realise that their constituents are becoming ever more disillusioned with the establishment they represent. These are the same people that bashed the president for calling out their lack of commitment to NATO, with 23 nations well behind promises made of their own volition 12 years prior. Could it be that for however abhorrent they might find the current leader of the US, he is calling many out on their failure to hold up their end of the bargain?

At the end of the day, no matter what one’s personal feelings for Trump may be, we have to live with his decisions. He is far from perfect. Yet instead of the predictable constant drone of noise following his speech, perhaps countries would be better off putting aside personal differences. Rather than crossing fingers in hope he maybe impeached so they can go back to the status quo and live the very lies he has exposed in his almost 2 years in office. Now that type of hypocrisy is truly laughable. Indeed the very fact that out of touch politicians can mock in such a manner shows just how badly they stink at relaying the very messages they think resonate with the public.

If the status quo is so good why would we vote out the incumbents?

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Almost everywhere we look, we’re told by the political class how good our lot is. Our blessed Aussie PM told us, “It has never been a better time to be an Australian.” Boosted asset prices, low unemployment and tepid inflation gives the illusion of real wealth for everyone. As an electorate, if all of that were true, why wouldn’t we be going out of our way to make sure the status quo gets voted back in with similar if not greater majorities? As it stands, more and more incumbent parties are hanging on by their finger nails, being forced to create alliances to stay in power rather than stick to the principles their parties were founded on. The irony is that these grand coalitions are formed on the tenets of ignorant ‘un-populism.’

The latest election cycle shows us that a growing number of people aren’t buying mediocrity. They’re sick of incumbent politicians ignoring them. The current crop of leaders seem to think that being less worse than the opposition is a virtue to be proud of. Yet poverty levels continue to rise and wealth is not trickling down to the masses. Even rising state entitlements have a finite life and the electorate knows it. Being married to the government is not seen as a desirable strategy long term. Deficits keep rising and look increasingly hard to pay down.

Searching through the St Louis Fed database, civilian employment under Obama managed to grow 2.5% on pre-crash levels. So the US loaded up on $9 trillion in short term debt to create 4 million net new jobs. That works out at $2.25 million per worker. Hardly an achievement. Yet despite that economic growth has dithered at the lowest post recession rates ever. As much as we might want to celebrate record low unemployment these are not proud statistics. The quality of jobs keeps going down. $8.4 trillion of this federal debt load needs to be refinanced inside 4 years. $12.3 trillion inside 10 years. While politicians can call the average voter stupid, the daily struggles of the average punter shows how out of touch the law makers are. This was the grand mistake made by Clinton. While she hung out with her elite mates at $1,000 plate dinners in Democrat strongholds in LA, NY and Chicago expecting a coronation, Trump hit the little people and had crowds flocking to see him.

While Trump’s trade tariffs seem daft on the face of it, it was done for the forgotten people who voted for him. He is not concerned about the consequences. That’s the point. So much of his platform appears abhorrent but he is the only politician in danger of being raked over coals for keeping his promises. That’s why he was elected. The status quo had failed to deliver over decades. 80% of the population didn’t benefit from the asset bubble post GFC. The 1% took 42% of those gains. The average Joe and Joanne see this. While they might not fully comprehend it they know enough to see their situation is not much better.

Take a look at Trudeau’s India debacle. Apart from the embarrassing wardrobe saga, the bigger problems came when he blamed the Indians for letting a known terrorist attend a state dinner. The Indians, unsurprisingly, were most unhappy at the accusation. Many look to Trudeau as the posterchild of the left, pushing peoplekind. Telling Canadians that he will convert returning ISIS fighters with haiku poetry, podcasts and comparing them to Italian migrants at the end of WW2 is utterly preposterous to his constituents. Telling his veterans they’re asking for too much flies in the face of love of one’s country. No wonder his popularity continues to dive. His speech to the UN – where he rattled off how Canada was ticking all the UN diversity boxes – was only a quarter full. Not even his own liberal mates rallied to show unity in numbers. It was telling that virtue signalling is all about appearing to do good rather than doing it.  Yet the day before Trudeau presented, Trump spoke of America First and the audience was packed. They might have hated every word that dripped from his tongue but they didn’t miss it for the world. It is hard talk. Not carefully prepared politically correct nonsense.

Take the recent European elections. Germany gave Merkel the worst ever performance of the CDU post WW2. The SPD was even worse. The anti-immigrant AfD stormed to 16%. Is it any wonder that when Merkel’s misguided altruism  showed up on Election Day even she finally conceded we have a problem with “no go zones”. Some may wish to look at the Merkel miracle of growth and low unemployment but the public service in Germany has exploded from 9% pre 2008 crash to 16% today. Not private sector growth but public sector.

The Italian election showed over 60% of the vote went to eurosceptic parties. While volatility has always been a feature of Italian politics, this results showed the discontent underbelly of Italy which has seen poverty jump 50% to one third of the population since Lehman collapsed. While M5S said it wouldn’t form a coalition, all bets are off if it tied up with League. There are plenty of overlaps on the party platforms but the M5S would have to insist on the PM role. The EU would go into a tailspin on such news.

Austria voted in a wunderkind who put the right wing anti immigrant FPO in charge of immigration. Holland saw Wilders claw more seats. Nationalist Marine LePen in France doubled the number of seats ever attained by the Front National. Even Macron is changing his spots looking to introduce national service and take a harder line against migrant crime.

Whether the real statistics of migrant crime are wholly accurate or not is beside the point. It is increasingly seen as an election issue and more EU countries have had enough. They feel their lot is getting worse and view forking out billions in aid for people to settle here is pennies out of their pocket. If the stats are as the government sugar coats them to be in terms of the prevailing prosperity surely the citizens would overwhelmingly back them. Sadly the opposite is true meaning politicians aren’t selling their “compassion” effectively. Too many examples of gagging the police and muzzling the press have surfaced.

That is the thing. If the economy was rosy and bullish and more people felt secure there is a likelihood they would look at the immigration debate in a more positive light. All they see now is millions flocking to Europe as poverty is on the rise and the economy is on the back foot at ground zero. European EU-28 GDP hasn’t grown since Q4 2015. Despite a quadrupling of ECB assets net jobs created post GFC numbers 4 million, labour force participation remains below the peak. However we should not forget that Romania and Bulgaria joined in Jan 2007 and Croatia in 2013 which would add (at a 50% employment ratio) c.20mn meaning that employment in the EU on a like for like basis as a whole is down 16mn jobs ceteris paribus. Even if only Croatia was included then net jobs creation in EU-28 would be a paltry 2mn, or a smidgen above 1%. Anemic.

Yet the political class still doesn’t seem to be learning, especially the EU. Poland and Hungary have formed a pact to reject proposed quotas on migrants. The EU has failed to address the most important question. The wishes of the migrants themselves. It is one thing for the EU to appeal to voters as saving asylum seekers from war torn lands (when 80% are economic migrants by the EU’s own numbers), it is another to forcibly send them to countries that flat out don’t want them. Ask for a show of hands of asylum seekers looking to stay in Germany or head off to Hungary to settle and the likelihood is 100:0. Trying to make Hungarians or Poles feel guilty for being incompassionate is a price they’re clearly willing to pay with losing EU membership. Would we take kindly to a neighbor telling us how to arrange our furniture in the living room or sign a petition to prevent us building extensions even though it is not even in their way? Of course not. Still wagging fingers in disapproval is only likely to steel their resolve.

Flip to the Southern Hemisphere and Australian politics is also exposing the sordid state of the swamp. 5 PMs in 10 years. Now the Deputy PM has had to resign to the back bench and in a last ditched effort to claim some sort of moral high ground with the staffer he was having an affair with. He claimed he would still look after her even though a paternity test might show the kid wasn’t his. What a grub and a slap in the face for his partner to imply she may have been promiscuous. Once again the popularity of the incumbent parties in Australia continues to sink to all time lows. The Labor Party looks to have the next election in the bag but even then the popularity of the opposition leader is woefully tiny.

While the world seems to be in this state of blissful tranquility on the outside, we needn’t probe too deep before seeing how bad things continue to be on the inside. The little people may not have any financial fire power but at the ballot box they have an equal opportunity to stuff those that aren’t listening. Once again Italy shows us it wants change. Call it populism if you must but it is truly a reflection of just how bad things really are and how little ammunition to deal with any future crises remains. The little people are raising their voices. Best heed their words. It is the same reason why as zero chance as Trump looks in 2020, don’t bet against another 4 years in the White House. If the Dems hope that celebrities that talk of #METOO and gun control (all the while they attend Oscars semi-naked and collect their millions doing action films full of explosions and automatic weapons fire) will sway them to a return to the swamp they’re sorely mistaken.