indonesia

COP24 – checking cash, corruption and cars

It should come as no surprise that the COP24 summit is a time to put the money where the mouth is. Look at the numbers of the delegates from Africa to stake their claim of the wealth redistribution. Guinea has sent the biggest delegation of 406 people. In 2016 the country received over $10.7mn in climate grants. DR Congo’s 237 delegates garnered $45 mn in aid for climate mitigation projects according to the OECD. The Ivory Coast received $114 million in 2016 for environmental aid. Indonesia got $250 million in climate related aid in the same year.  Poland can be forgiven being the host nation to be 3rd place. It receives zip, much like the US and Australia. The COP summits are nothing more than networking events to collect cash from virtue signaling Western governments.

COP24delegates2.png

Putting that in context of the representation amongst all delegates to their representative population, Guinea is at 15.5x. America at 0.1x. Guinea is 86 people lighter than in 2017. The Ivory Coast had halved its delegates on the previous summit.

COP24delegates

One has to question how efficiently these millions given away get to be spent on the intent. Take a look at Transparency International’s global 2017 corruption index. 180 is the worst. 1 is the best. Note the correlation of delegates attending COP24 to those countries with a higher prevalence of corruption?

Corruption.png

There is a touch of irony that the transport recommendations to/from Katowice airport made by the UNFCCC are all diesel vehicles. Not an EV in sight. Surely there was an opportunity to team up with an EV maker to co–sponsor the event? Did the 7,331 observers going to the summit pick up on this? Why didn’t they take advantage of the virtual attendance technology that was available? Better to be there and enjoy the banquets and political graft.

Polandchauffeur

Live free and negotiate

Harley-Davidson needs a major overhaul

MCFEBIT

Harley-Davidson (HOG) is the classic case of a divine franchise. While still the world’s largest maker of cruiser motorcycles, it is being swamped by new competition. HOG’s EBIT performance has slid for the last 4 years and is even below the level of 2012. BMW Motorrad, KTM AG, Ducati and Triumph are all growing unit sales and profits. HOG has a very defined product line whereas its competitors are flush with sports, adventure, cruiser, heritage, cafe racers, scooters, off road and much broader engine sizes.

MCForeign

The further complication is that the Japanese are getting their act together. Honda is targeting over 20mn units in 2018 (mainly driven by emerging Asia). Honda has received rave reviews of its new CB1000R which should keep the fires burning. Several years ago, Yamaha introduced a budget cruiser called the Bolt but HOG responded with a competitively priced bike made in India which showed the desperation of a strategy where it doubted its brand power. Kawasaki has a 12 month waiting list on its Z900RS cafe racer which is a replica of the 1970s classic. Kawasaki has no interest playing in scooter markets and remains focused on its core larger bore segmentation.

Yamaha and Kawasaki have gone down the path of profitability than pure unit growth while Suzuki is the real laggard, lost in me too group think product. Honda has had a real resurgence in product which harks on its history. Honda now has 75% market share in Indonesia, 72% in Vietnam, 80% in Thailand and 82% in Brazil. Only 28% in India. Still, the market share, resale and brand power in Asia no maker will usurp them for decades. Put another way, the risks associated with dethroning Honda in Asia by a dealer channel push would be astronomically high. Yamaha has the other 10%.

MCJapan.png

Profitability is starting to look much rosier for the Japanese too. Even Suzuki has managed to pull itself out of loss.

MCJEBIT.png

Sadly for HOG, 1Q 2018 has shown even worse numbers. Global unit sales were 7.2% down on the previous year and 12% down at home.  Japan and Australia were soft. Looking at the strategy it looks like throwing spaghetti at a wall and hoping it sticks. It looks like some consultant has rattled together some funky catchphrases.

18637171-5A09-411D-ACE7-382A20CF6C46.jpeg

HOG’s problems are simple. It is not listening to customers. When grandson of the founder, Willie Davidson, took over the reins after the near bankruptcy under AMF stewardship in the 1980s, the company really consulted customers and worked out they wanted more reliability and capability. It delivered. Sadly HOG is hanging on by its fingernails on brand alone today. The Polaris-owned Indian brand is coming up with excellent product lines which have all of the cachet of HOG given it was its fiercest competitor in the 1930s.

HOG’s product line up is relatively stale in terms of real innovation. While the Milwaukee 8 engine is a very good start and the Fat Bob is a proper philosophy change, the rest of the line up needs major revamp. At the moment it seems the brand is stuck in an echo chamber.

In closing Harley’s are a cult. There aren’t many brands where customers are prepared tattoo it to their bodies. In all the bikes CM has owned, the Harley had 10x the number of people wanting to ride on the back vs the rest combined. Yet it goes to show that brand only goes so far. Product still matters.

 

Even your steak is at stake with the left

9950E08E-C789-4B43-A158-04A8B8928831.jpeg

In order to create change in our society, we must challenge current belief systems and force people to take a side; oppression or justice, cruelty or compassion.” – Melbourne Cow Save Animal Liberation Army (MCSALA)

35 members of the  MCSALA forced their way into the Rare Steakhouse to protest last night. What is it with the left? Even diners can’t enjoy a meal without being harassed. Maybe customers were celebrating a birthday, anniversary or wanting to enjoy a steak after a hard day at work. Parting with good money to consume is a choice.

Instead of abusing customers why not whine to the government who clearly allow such supposedly inhumane slaughtering practices? Did they protest in front of the Indonesian Embassy when videos of Indonesian abattoirs showed how cruelly live cattle were being killed? Why not raid the Halal Certification Board? Ah no, that couldn’t be done because that would clash with the left’s other ideologies. It is not the principle but the side. Only soft targets with limited repercussions will do.

CM sincerely hopes charges are pressed against the MCSALA. Normally demonstrations in public spaces require permits. The Rare Steakhouse is a private space. It has a right to refuse entry to those that ruin the ambience. It rents the space to run a business and one can be sure the manager would not have invited them on the premises. It employs staff who equally shouldn’t face interference in the workplace.

CM wishes to see the restaurant get a lot of free publicity off the back of this stunt. That customers, through their own volition, exercise choice based on offering rather than be ranted to by protein starved vegans. Surely the ultimate irony would be to see the Rare Steakhouse see a large tick up in business.

People don’t have to take sides on every issue but the flaw in the MCSALA’s statement is that the left doesn’t believe in choice. It believes in shoving its views down the throats and those that don’t tow its line must be ‘outed’. No options but control. Indeed in its statement the MCSALA says it must “force”. Tells us all we need to know.

Imagine the howls if butchers and beef farmers walked into a vegan cafe and razed hell? Sadly they’re too busy making a living.