#EC

Comrade Corbyn, the next British PM?

Something has been burning in the back of CM’s mind as the UK election looms this week. While polls point to the Tories winning, Corbyn is likely to do way better than what the pundits predict. Could he end up as PM? It is not an impossibility. In fact, the odds are increasingly in his favour. CM thinks Corbyn might actually do it.

While it is true that 1.3mn more people voted to leave in the largest ever democratic process in UK history, almost 13mn people didn’t vote on the basis they probably assumed it was a foregone conclusion. CM fundamentally believes that referendum results should have been respected regardless. Not showing up to vote is no excuse. None-the-less we now have a ‘youthquake’ who are desperate to overturn the referendum result to consider.

Of the 18.6mn that couldn’t vote in the referendum in 2016, official figures suggest that 3.85 million registered to vote between the day the election was called on Oct. 29 and Tuesday’s registration deadline — two-thirds of them under the age of 35. The youth seem far more preoccupied with socialism than their parents. While it is safe to assume that not all of the 13mn that didn’t vote were remainers, the youth could well be a decisive factor.

CM detests pretty much every policy that Corbyn espouses as it would be a total disaster for Britain in terms of future investment and immediate capital flight. Yet young kids being offered free everything lack the lived experiences of pre-Thatcher socialism and the economic calamity that ensued. They are utterly clueless in this respect. Yet Corbyn sings all of the woke causes of climate change, social justice and equal outcomes. They are on his side.

How well do millennials know their tyrants? A CIS study in Australia showed that 58% of millennials had a favourable view of socialism. Unfortunately, 51% did not know who Chairman Mao was. Another 32% did not know Stalin and 42% hadn’t heard of Lenin. If we combine with “know but not familiar” with “don’t know” we see almost 80%, 66% and 74% respectively. Oh how wonderful to learn in school about three men whose social policies led to the deaths of 10s of millions. With Marxist teachers rife throughout academia, Corbyn will have a plentiful stock of willing comrades in his back pocket.

Still, as much as the press smears the socialist opposition leader, UK PM Boris Johnson has been the man who has been looking to avoid confrontation at all costs. Surely if BoJo possessed a winning hand and held a superior manifesto, why wouldn’t he show up on the popular BBC programme hosted by Andrew Neil to state his case? It is a terrible look. Neil eviscerated Johnson without the PM being there to defend himself. Worse for BoJo is that his video went viral. What have you got to hide PM?

Corbyn could well snatch victory.  If the Tories take the attitude of former PM Theresa May’s snap election in June 2017 they should beware the barking electorate. Don’t forget how well Corbyn did in that fight.

CM stated in May 2017 the following,

“The first thought to come across CM’s head when Theresa May called this [June] election was, “bad idea.” This hubris she’d romp home may prove yet again how out of touch many politicians are with their constituents and how one must never believe in polls. I think she scrapes home but for now, wants the nightmare over.”

History revealed she scraped home with the help of the DUP. The EU has masterfully engineered delay after delay to keep the ‘remain’ dream alive. Now the youth have gathered steam as registered voters, they could well hand the EU a gift that will keep its Ponzi scheme alive.

When will politicians realise that being less worse no longer cuts it with the electorate? They are sick of the self-interest of the political class. They want to blow it up. Johnson has not looked good and the Brexit Party, which might have smashed the European elections, looks as though it does not have the traction it had hoped for. It could underwhelm.

Many of the Labour MPs may have ignored their elderly constituents but it would be a safe bet to say that the ultimate outcome in these so-called “betrayed” constituencies is anything but a doe deal to shun them.

Polls are damned near useless now. They failed to predict Trump. Failed to pick Brexit. Why put faith that the UK pollsters are any closer to the mark?

Politics is a random walk. Trudeau managed to cling on to power in Canada despite being found guilty of two breaches of conflicts of interest, blackface, cultural appropriation and many other gaffes. Clearly, it didn’t matter enough, just as “p*ssy grabbing” didn’t impact Trump in 2016.

Therefore CM expects a much higher chance of a Corbyn PM-ship or at the very least a parliament that puts us straight back where we were before the election – a hung parliament with no rudder and a Brexit that is watered down in such a way that it achieves nothing in the way of that originally intended.

CM sincerely hopes he is wrong on Corbyn. He would be an economic disaster at a time the Tories would have left a troubling fiscal legacy that is nothing to write home about.

If Corbyn wins, the UK will face severe capital flight. The pound will tank. A second referendum will be put forward. The outcomes will be dire. This is not being hysteric in any way. The markets are simply not pricing it in at all.

At least Sir James Dyson of vacuum cleaner fame saw the light. He is a Brexiteer but his lack of faith in the process has already seen him relocate the HQ to Singapore. Many more would follow. After all, if Corbyn wants to control the behaviour of British business on the FTSE and nationalise utilities it will hardly be a fertile ground to invest.

Black humour is a British trait but Brexit extensions just ain’t funny anymore

While black humour is definitely a strong British trait, there is nothing remotely funny about further delays to execute a Brexit deal. Despite the highest turnout in British voting history, UK legislators continue to show their employers utter contempt. We all know how King Arthur was eventually forced to deal with the Black Knight in Monty Python’s The Holy Grail despite denying the obvious.

While many Remainers argue that there was a whole swag of voters that didn’t show up on the day of the referendum – meaning the majority didn’t support Leave – they clearly showed by those actions that it didn’t mean enough to get to the polling booth. Too bad if they thought “remain” was a formality. It is a bit late to complain after the result. Tell that to Americans who believed in Hillary Clinton’s coronation three years ago. They can’t stop banging on about being robbed. That is how democracy works. Complacency is no excuse. Do we change the rules? Hand out mulligans?

It isn’t hard to work out what is at stake here. The EU wants to turn the UK into a colony. PM Boris Johnson’s latest deal was week-old leftovers from Theresa May’s disastrous proposal. Any deal short of “no” will come with so many caveats as to beggar belief.

To say that people were “duped/misled/lied to” in the lead up to the referendum is deceitfully condescending. People knew exactly what they were voting for. Now they see the very people sworn to represent them, going out of their way to cede more power to unelected bureaucrats in Brussels. The deal, as it stands, is the type of document a vanquished nation would be forced to sign – unconditional surrender. Blind Freddie can see that.

The greater irony here is that if politicians are so cocksure they can read the mood of the nation to the extent of lecturing citizens that they don’t understand the implications of Brexit they should use that same chest-beating confidence to win by a landslide. Surely was such conviction so iron-clad, they would call an election immediately. Yet the Remain camp steadfastly refuses, hopefully using the time to lock in cushy EU jobs post being turfed from office.

Maybe a crushing victory in the Rugby World Cup final this weekend will be all Britons need to know that they are capable of greatness on their own.

Despite all the problems at the gates of Elysee Palace, Macron torches 10 Downing St instead

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As the German 6th Army marched on Paris on June 14th, 1940 civil servants of Britain and France drafted a proposal for a Franco-British Union in the ensuing 48 hours. It wasn’t to be a mere military pact but essentially merging two countries. The document stated clearly,

At this most fateful moment in the history of the modern world, the Governments of the United Kingdom and the French Republic make this declaration of indissoluble union and unyielding resolution in their common defence of justice and freedom against subjection to a system which reduces mankind to a life of robots and slaves.

Churchill was surprised by the eagerness of the French. Charles de Gaulle embraced the idea of wanting immediate execution. However, the French quickly became disillusioned and disappointed when the British were pulling troops from Dunkirk. The deal collapsed.

Then PM Paul Reynaud wrote in his memoirs that, “Those who rose in indignation at the idea of union with our ally were the same individuals who were getting ready to bow and scrape to Hitler.

So it was a No Deal outcome. The British accepted it.

The British didn’t give up and abandon the French but vowed to liberate them regardless of failing to reach a ‘mutual’ deal. Surviving the Battle of Britain, the Blitz and U-boats destroying merchant shipping, the British, with allied help, played an instrumental role in defeating Hitler. We can soundly argue that Britain had little choice but to do as she did, but the liberation of France was a welcome by-product, not lost on the French in August 1944.

The sacrifices made by Great Britain to drive out those evil occupiers are not lost on the British either. So to have Macron issue an ultimatum is ignoring history. Perhaps Macron should ask his wife, who grew up soon after the war, about French attitudes of the time – how they deeply appreciated and embraced Liberté, égalité, fraternité.

However, all credit must be given to French President Emmanuel Macron for conveniently forgetting the past and embracing double standards to try to railroad and back the very foreign democracy – that essentially assured he was able to attain the position he has – into a corner. That is the EU operating to type.

As CM has mentioned multiple times, the negative impacts on the UK economy are effectively zero if common sense between nations prevails.

Looking at the latest trade stats between the EU and Britain it is simple. EU members make up 7 of the Top 10 British export markets accounting for 37.4% of all trade. Top 10 accounts for 65.9% of trade. Trump accounts for £54.9bn vs £36.5bn from Merkel.

On the Import side, the UK matters much more to the likes of Germany £68bn. The Dutch at £42bn and France at £28bn.

In short of the UK ‘s Top 10 importing nations, 8 are EU members. The Top 10 account for 65.7% of the total. Those 8 EU nations make up 48.1% of all British imports. 7.13% of Germany’s exports end up in Blighty. One might argue that 10% of UK exports ending up in Germany is reason enough to back down. Yet why would either seek to make their position worse off? Germany is the UK’s #1 importer and Germany is the #2 destination for British exports. For Germany, the UK ranks #11 importer and #3 export nation.

Will Angela Merkel really work to ruin a trading relationship with the UK where the trade surplus alone is worth 1% of German GDP? Especially as the German economy is contracting?

Macron has once again revealed the EU’s utter contempt for sovereign state democracy. Ironic coming from a man who has seen his popularity collapse at home. If he can’t fix the will of those very constituents he represents at his own doorstep (yellow vest protests haven’t ended), what place does he have soiling the doormat at 10 Downing St? It reads like Aesop’s “Dog in the Manger.

In closing, wasn’t the whole point of establishing the EU to prevent tyranny from ever happening again?

German car makers in trouble with the EC environmental regulator

While governments around the world champion the idea that auto makers are “all aboard” when it comes to climate change mitigating tech, it appears the VW Group (incl Porsche & Audi), BMW and Daimler have been raked over the coals by European Commission (EC) officials for deliberately withholding it.

Why doesn’t the EC understand that advanced pollution cutting technology costs more the tougher the emissions regulations get? That cost gets passed onto consumers.

If auto makers met all the appropriate legislative hurdles at the time, why should they be punished? The law didn’t mandate it. Furthermore consumers put safety and utility at a premium to exhaust fumes.

The EC might complain these auto makers colluded but even if they hadn’t met in secret the outcome would have been exactly the same. Focus on shareholders wouldn’t change. Why can’t we accept it is a 100% reflection of the car makers’ true feelings about the environment. They don’t care! VW even cheated the tests.

What more evidence do we need? Automakers push narratives that they’re big on saving the planet so as to not catch the wrath of the activists. Actions tell the real story.

Perhaps we should question the regulator for not introducing tougher standards earlier rather than beat manufacturers over the head for their inability to provide adequate oversight?

The European Muppet Show

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The EU has agreed to postpone Brexit till October 31st. This will give more time for PM Theresa May, undoubtedly the most incompetent PM in British history, to dither and faff around with another 27 versions of a plan that will still resemble the initial deal.  No amount of lipstick on this pig will sell it to the British public. How she hasn’t resigned given the lack of authority is beyond comprehension? Opinion polls already show an overwhelming preference for No Deal.

Yet the 77% of remainer MPs inside the Commons somehow think they know better than the peons. What these elected officials are failing to grasp is that their constituents are questioning the respect shown to the very democratic processes which gave them the privilege to serve in the first place. Many existing members will see their employers sack them at the next election. May has destroyed the Tories.

At the same time, Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party will romp home in the EU elections in May and add to the already rapidly rising trend of populist eurosceptic parties across the continent.  While the EU thinks the extension will just provide a path to keep the UK inside the union bar the nameplate, it actually significantly raises the risks of further revolt within the ranks. His party, not a month old is already polling 3rd, behind Labour and the Tories.

The Britons are being viewed as a calm, placid and polite people but when pushed the lion will roar. What we are witnessing is a complete rewriting of the rules. That all of the legalities surrounding the treaties are being ignored to get a different result to that originally agreed. It is shameless.

Perhaps the UK should look at it this way. If Westminster passes a result that locks the UK into the EU, requiring the latter’s unilateral approval to leave, maybe Brits should show the same exact disdain for legal process and choose to ignore it when it suits. What will the EU do? Invade?

Brextension

Brexit is a total shambles. The delay timetable must be channeling British Rail. The Remainer PM Theresa May, instead of first negotiating terms with her own party and allies on a deal from the start and then taking to the EU, has repeatedly done the reverse. Then she wonders why she keeps losing support each time. Apart from the preposterous decision to rally support from Marxist Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn, Theresa May has asked for yet another extension to Jun 30. EC President Donald Tusk is offering a year ‘flextension’. When will she realize that she has no authority?

Tory members have been cutting membership cards in half and posting to social media. This Telegraph letters page sums up the mood. The revolt seems less and less to do with Brexit per se and more to do with the peons feeling utterly betrayed by those they voted for. MPs who have backed the PM better start filling in their P45s. Voters will not let this slide.

Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party is rapidly gaining momentum, picking up disaffected voters. If he contests the EU elections his party should do very well.

The Tories are toast. For a party that should have its core in serving free markets and less government intervention it sure has forgotten its roots. For many Brits they didn’t leave the Tories. The Tories left them.

Juncker focuses on the wrong climate

There is an irony to EC President Jean-Claude Juncker promising to spend €1 in €4 of the EU budget on climate mitigation. Worse he used 16yo Swedish climate school strike activist Greta Thunberg as the pawn to justify it. €1 trillion will be spent annually through 2027. It is for their future after all!

Last week CM debated a former client who tried to justify teachers using WMO data in their studies of teenage students on climate. WMO is a part of the U.N. which has been embroiled in so much data manipulation, scandal, lack of governance, unethical conduct and conflicts of interest as to beggar belief. So kids are being indoctrinated if the scholastic standard is the WMO.

Has Juncker considered how his climate plan will alleviate stubborn poverty and anemic economic growth?

EU poverty or risk of exclusion in 2017 stood at 22.4%. So 1 in 4 EU-28 member state citizens are struggling. In Greece it remains high at 35%. In 2007 poverty in the EU-28 was 16%. Even poster child Germany has gone from 16% to 19% in the same period. Macron’s yellow vests are protesting at 17.1% poverty vs 13% in 2007. In 2007 there were 78mn at risk of social exclusion. In 2017 there were 114mn.

The U.N. has called for “no poverty” in 15 years. The EU subscribes to this nonsense. While poverty may have drifted from the post GFC peak of 24.8% in the eurozone, 36mn extra people are unable to afford to heat their homes, afford a colour TV or eat meat, fish or chicken once every two days. These are the EU metrics on poverty. So how does spending €1 trillion per annum to mitigate climate change sit with a growing number of constituents dying to see blazing sunshine bask upon their economic climate?

Retail electricity prices across Europe are up 23% in the last decade. In Germany +39%. Spain +47%, Portugal +50%. Sweden +76%. France +40%. This is what happens when a growing amount of renewables are thrust on the grid. The countries with far lower renewables targets, like Hungary, have seen electricity prices fall. Who’d have thunk?

EU GDP growth has been slowing for the last 5 quarters and expected to slow to 1.1% in the coming quarter.

The EU claimed a 6.6% unemployment rate in Dec 2018. An update is expected on March 1. Is that number realistic if the poverty rate remains so high or is it a reflection of low paying rubbish job opportunities? Greek unemployment is north of 18% and Spain at 15%. Part time employment has grown to 20% from 15% over the last decade. In the Netherlands almost 50% of work is part time.

December 2018 EU industrial production fell 4.2%YoY. Ireland fell back 19.8% and Spain -6.7%. Hardly positive readings.

So instead of promising teenagers a green future, Juncker would find it far more sensible to focus on alleviating the chronic youth unemployment in Europe which remains around 19%. At least Thunberg is likely to skip the unemployment queue by landing a cushy EU job when she graduates unlike her fellow Swedish schoolmates who will face 18% unemployment.

What’s the point of listening to kids pleas to save the planet when the unelected overpaid bureaucracy in Brussels won’t even be able to provide them with a sustainable career to enjoy it? No doubt the kids will realize this folly when they grow up in the real world.