#donaldtrump

Betting agency’s kiss of death?

History repeats? In the 2016 presidential election Paddy Power paid out on an expected Hillary Clinton win two weeks early. How wrong the betting agency was. How funny to watch the one sided mainstream media switch from 90% chance for Clinton to 98% for Trump. Expensive mistake.

CM has never forgotten watching a Bloomberg screen updating tallied Brexit votes and seeing the betting agencies scramble to cover their completely wrong odds as the count swept through the Midlands.

Now SportsBet has paid out early on a Bill Shorten win over PM Scott “ScoMo” Morrison. $1.3mn in total. A great stunt but this election is about cost of living, not climate change or refugees. Labor is no slam dunk as much as we were led to believe from the string of negative polls.

To be fair this election is so hard to call. The Coalition has been terrible since the Turnbull years but Shorten, for all of the easy ride into the Lodge, has hardly shown himself to be a clear winner. What on earth made him think ScoMo’s thoughts on whether gays would go to hell was even an issue? Now his Treasurer Chris Bowen is telling people not to worry if their largest asset falls into negative equity.

ScoMo has performed very well. Strong on numbers and content. Bill Shorten couldn’t count to save himself. CM only this morning pointed out the ridiculous claims made by Labor MP Richard Marles.

SportBet May yet prove correct but history has been a poor guide in recent years.

Poor old Joe Biden

Joe Biden maybe the front runner for the Democrats in 2020 but the internet trolls are having a wow of a time. Note his creepy t-shirts are being sold under www.joebiden.info and the web address of joebiden.org leads straight to the White House website listing President Trump’s accomplishments. It seems now that election campaigning requires more than just placards and postbox drops. Ouch.

CNN ranks 15th last week

According to the latest Nielsen ratings, Fox News grabbed #1 slot for viewers, followed by MSNBC, HGTV, USA Network & TBS. CNN scored 15th spot, behind networks like The Discovery Channel, Food Network, TLC, and A&E.

From April 8-12, CNN only averaged 690,000 people and 180,000 in the key 25-54 age demographic.

This is what happens when people “tune out”. Perhaps the reality is that too many CNN viewers think everything is a rerun because even new news can be mistaken for being old news played on a loop on CNN. Did you know they can’t stand President Trump?

Don’t do the crime if you don’t wanna pay $130k overtime

Good news. The City of Chicago sent the US$130,000 worth of overtime spent by the Chicago Police Department to investigate the hoax to Jussie Smollett giving him one week to pay or risk further legal action. Is it the job of the Chicago taxpayers to fund Jussie’s DIY hate crime hoax career enhancement and self promotion program? What utter contempt shown by Smollett’s representatives to demand that the Mayor & Chicago Police Department apologise for “dragging an innocent man’s name through the mud.” Thankfully the FOIA request to the CPD meant they could release all of the documents before the suppression order was put in place. Just desserts.

President Trump is absolutely correct to get the FBI & DOJ involved in this case to look at how such a ridiculous outcome could ever come to be. How does a First Assistant State Attorney with 30 years in the role openly say Smollett was guilty then drop all 16 felony charges? Now his excuse is that the SA office is more focused on combating violent crimes.

Does the data show Donald in the dumpster?

Midterm

This is a simple schematic of first term presidents and the results at the ballot box of their first mid term. Since 1910, the incumbent parties have invariably lost ground. More interestingly, Democrats had control of either/both House of Reps and Senate during Nixon, Ford, Reagan and Bush Sr – all Republicans. Republican Presidents Taft, Harding, Hoover, Eisenhower and Trump lost the House at the midterms. Truman, Clinton and Obama suffered the same fate for the Democrats.

Trump achieved the highest number of Senate seats taken by a first term Republican president for over 100 years. George W Bush achieved rising numbers for HoR/Senate  post 9/11 but only Democrats have achieved the feat – Woodrow Wilson, FDR and JFK. Perhaps the irrelevance of the outcomes in the mid-terms is that despite the floggings Wilson, Truman, Ike, Reagan, Clinton, Bush Jr and Obama all were comfortably reelected for a second term.

Given the headwinds Trump was facing from the mainstream media, his unorthodox outbursts, twitter tirades and so forth, the electorate didn’t grant the Democrats a huge gift  they were expecting. Even worse they gave Trump a bigger authority to appoint SC justices should an opportunity arise by bumping his numbers in the Senate. Not surprising given the shocking gutter level political theatre over Justice Kavanaugh, vindicated by  victims confessing they had lied.

The Democrats should still be concerned that the $70mn spent on Beto O’Rourke came to nothing.  Beyonce also endorsed Beto. Oprah endorsed Abrams in Georgia – who is likely to lose. Taylor Swift endorsed Bredesen – who also lost. All four candidates openly supported by Obama lost. So much for celebrity power swaying electorates. It probably had a counter effect.

Even worse, in Nevada a brothel owner and reality TV star won his race despite dying last month. It is hard to work out what is the bigger tragedy. Voting for someone dead or being the competing Democrat to lose to a dead person. A Republican is to be appointed to the seat by county officials.

We shouldn’t forget that the Republicans had the highest number of sitting member retirements at a first midterm in the House of Representatives for 88 years. 25 seats had a new face. Republicans won re-election as governors in New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts and Maryland – three of them deep blue states. Where was the mainstream media on that?

Midterm VT.png

Turnout was good (for a mid term). 48.1% voted in 2018. In the last 100 years the average has been 41%. Only in 1966, did the first midterm of LBJ exceed this level at 48.7%. So much for either party causing a red or blue wave. Less than half of eligible voters showed up on November 6th 2018. More cared, but not enough.

Felons make for an interesting outlier subset. While it is hard to know their exact voting intentions, for the Gubernatorial in Georgia, would 219,431 felons have made a difference for Abrams? She trails Kemp by just under 100,000 votes. So if 55% of felons (the Georgia midterm turnout ratio) voted, 120,687 votes were up for grabs. Were it legal for Georgian state felons to vote, she would have been wise to campaign there.

Felons

Now that the Democrats have the lower house, one wonders why they have put Nancy Pelosi in charge of the House? This is possibly to be contested. Up to fifty Democrat congressmen might oppose her for Speaker. Trump couldn’t wish for a better adversary as her litany of gaffes will undoubtedly embarrass her party. Pelosi represents pretty much everything Americans have come to despise about the Democrats.

More worryingly, Maxine Waters is being put in charge of the Financial Services Committee. At a point in the cycle where financial acumen is probably most required, this is an embarrassment, made worse by her open calls for payback.

The Democrats need fresh faces. Ones that will look for bipartisan support. If the Democrats embark upon a cocktail of revenge politics and look to push for investigation after investigation in order to impeach Trump but end up with nothing they will be seen for what they are – a party completely self-absorbed with petty vendettas. The toxic Senate debacle should have given them warning enough that voters won’t tolerate more political roadkill like that going forward.  Yet Pelosi will likely use her subpoena powers to drag everything through the gutter instead of working to improve things for Americans. Failure here will only lead the electorate to conclude they wasted two years and gift wrap 2020 for Trump.

This mid-term election was anything but a slam dunk. Put aside personal hatred of Trump, look at the data and see that Americans did not write him off as many pundits predicted. It should be more scary to realise that he is probably more Teflon-Don than he was in 2016. Second biggest mid-term turnout in history, highest net gain of seats in the Senate in 100 years for a first term GOP president, record dollars thrown at Democrat candidates backed by Trump-hating billionaires. At the end of the day folks, this is just the data talking.

Mid Term Turnout.png

Pick axe or tape recorder? The murder weapon is actually the dangerous precedent it sets

FBCFCA60-6D50-4950-B013-90B0A1008AE9.jpeg

If this was Cluedo (Trump Edition), Milton Bradley would need to launch a whole new series of weapons, scenes and villains to cover the endless scenarios.  The problem would be that no matter how many times players tried to kill off the president, the perpetrators would turn themselves in with the weapon and inform the scene of the crime, believing it better to seek forgiveness for failing to execute.

Yes, everyone gets it. The left hate him! How many more ways do we need to be shown this? A few weeks ago a Mexican comedian pretended to urinate on his Hollywood Walk of Fame  star. Now a loony hacked  it with a pick axe. Do these people truly believe hearts and minds are won with such actions?

Now the Cohen tapes are a CNN ‘ratings at all costs’ ploy. Apart from the obvious violation of attorney-client privilege to secretly record a meeting without Trump’s knowledge, the reality is that it doesn’t really prove anything. Without a doubt if Jim Acosta had his own lawyer release tapes of him without consent he’d be demanding remedial action to stop it. Most Americans would feel the same way but the brazenly “because it’s Trump it doesn’t matter” attitude should send shudders down the spines of Americans about setting precedents.

CNN keeps saying it has juicier stuff to reveal but surely if the smoking gun was in its possession, why wouldn’t it seek to impugn the man it hates so much as soon as humanly possible to expedite their lust for impeachment? Why would it bother to hold its audience (what’s left of it) in suspense?

If it is campaign violations, Obama was busted for the same thing in 2013 and all was settled with a fine. A nothing burger.

What the left continue to forget is that he was elected in full knowledge of his vulgarian tendencies (proven & alleged) – racism, sexism, adultery, affairs with porn stars, p*ssy grabbing tapes and so on. Voters are duly aware of these character flaws yet still voted him in because the alternative was so awful. Yet Trump Derangement Syndrome hits new highs (lows) on a daily basis. More centrist Democrats must surely be thinking the actions of their unhinged left brothers and sisters are calling into question their own beliefs in the party platform.

America is a strange nation to many of we non- citizens. Accuse NRA members of being murderers after school shootings and their membership ranks swell in the millions. Shout at deplorables as beyond redemption and they harden against those that berate them. When will they learn that all of the stunts and actions to date turn the “blue wave” into a “red tsunami”?

The precedents of kicking people out of restaurants, threatening them for wearing a MAGA hats or shooting politicians don’t gel well with the normal middle of the road Americans who believe their 1st Amendment rights must be protected. It is no wonder that when they see the 1st being violated that the 2nd Amendment must be defended at all costs.

 

 

These results may surprise many

8E6E36E2-44C4-4CFE-B510-4B56D6429522.jpeg

We are often told by the likes of Pelosi et al that race relations in the US have never been worse than now. More narrative busting from Rasmussen,

”Voters feel young black Americans are better off under President Trump than they were under Barack Obama, the nation’s first black president. 

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey shows that 32% of Likely U.S. Voters believe life for young black Americans has gotten better since Trump’s election. Slightly more (36%) say life for these Americans has gotten worse, while 26% think it has stayed about the same.

But in March 2014, just 16% said life for young black Americans had gotten better since Obama’s election five-and-a-half years earlier.  By July 2016 in Obama’s final year in office, only 13% thought life was better for young blacks.

Even black voters are nearly twice as likely (28%) to say young black Americans are better off now than they were in the closing year of Obama’s presidency (15%).

Forty-seven percent (47%) of all voters, however, believe race relations are worse since Trump’s election. Still, that compares to 60% who felt that way after eight years of the Obama presidency. Just 20% say those relations are better now, while 30% rate them about the same.