#DNC

Shotgun Joe for 2020?

Joe Biden has officially thrown his hat into the ring for the 2020 presidential run. Despite the Creepy Joe video footage which will undoubtedly run on a loop during the campaign, he now has this video talking of why owners should just buy shotguns instead of high capacity rifles.

Nonetheless, if Biden wins the Democrat nomination, will his flock of voters care about those images any more than Trump voters dismissed audio of locker room talk? Probably not. Trump Derangement Syndrome is a pretty chronic condition.

The bigger question is why Obama never came out to support Biden during the creepy video release when he lauded him the best VP in American history? Talk about a conditional bromance.

So to the never ending list of Democrat nominees. The party looks so disjointed. Instead of narrowing the field down to a small clutch of realistic candidates with a consistent message, the policy platform has no sound base. It’s radical left all the way to traditional liberal. Perhaps the “shotgun” scatter policy mix is what the Democrats will end up with rather than targeted sniper fire.

The list of candidates so far is as follows –

Bernie Sanders,

Joe Biden,

Elizabeth Warren,

Kamala Harris,

Beto O’Rourke,

Pete Buttigieg,

Cory Booker,

Julian Castro,

John Delaney,

Tulsi Gabbard,

Kirsten Gillibrand,

John Hickenlooper,

Jay Inslee,

Amy Klobuchar,

Wayne Messam,

Seth Moultham,

Tim Ryan, Eric

Swalwell,

Marianne Williamson and

Andrew Yang

President Trump needn’t lose much sleep. Hating him is the only consistent policy message the Dems have. Why hasn’t Alec Baldwin or Oprah announced they’re running yet? Baldwin think s he’s a shoe in!

White Nationalism – Candace Owens torches the Democrats

Candace Owens, a black conservative, torched the Democratic Party in front of the House Judiciary Committee. Her aim was to dispel the myths around hate crime (which she noted the mainstream media refused to cover an Antifa assault against her), the black community and the perpetual policy platforms that try to keep minorities, like those of her heritage, as victims.

Her grandfather, who sat behind her, was a victim of segregation but Owens said he never raised her with a victim mentality and always told her to strive for what she wanted. He never once mentioned whites when she grew up. Powerful speech.

CM covered hate crime in charts a few months back. Overall hate crime is sharply lower than two decades ago, in absolute and percentage terms.

CM also covered a race baiting article by the New York Times suggesting unconscious bias in school discipline last year. It wasn’t if one bothers to do the statistics.

Or how the media ignored a Rasmussen Report which found Black Americans feeling better under Trump than Obama.

Or when Nancy Pelosi was hot mic’d telling Andre Wilson to let the audience know he was a Muslim. What relevance was that other than to stir a culture of victim hood?

Or Maxine Waters calling for the left to kick Trump officials from restaurants, gas stands and public places.

How about all those Democrats like Kamala Harris, Maxine Waters and Corey Booker rallied behind Jussie Smollett to cook up fears of rising white nationalism only to live in denial once the narrative was completely debunked? Mad Maxine even supported Smollett after the charges were dropped. Yet the Police Superintendent Eddie Johnson was not laughing.

Would it have suited Waters to have the CPD lie about the hoax to whip up more division to feed a narrative that is on the decline? Exactly who is dog whistling?

We need more Candace Owens in the world. Prople that don’t cry for free hand outs because of something that happened before they were born. No doubt she will be branded an Uncle Tom and a sell-out but despite all attempts to shut her down she stands by the content of her character, not the colour of her skin. Bravo.

The Mueller Madness form guide

The NY Post put forward this interesting schematic to let people vote for who they think was the most worthy contender for frothing at the mouth over the Mueller investigation. Such a strong field. From MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow welling up on hearing the news of the president’s exoneration to Kathy Griffin tweeting furiously about his collusion. The main networks dedicated 2,300 minutes of coverage on this investigation over 2 years with 90% negative coverage. So much for objective journalism.

In having to accept the bitter taste of defeat, the apologies from the mainstream media have not been forthcoming. According to CNN’s Brain Stelter, “you’re going to hear from the right that the press just made all this up to take down President Trump…the press was just following a trail Trump created“. Perhaps they might ponder who was behind these accusations. Maybe liberals will call for an investigation into Bob Mueller because they didn’t like the result of his investigation?

When will the Democrats finally focus on policy to win an argument instead of allowing the media to handhold them through a two year mental disorder? Trump Derangement Syndrome should be added to the next DSM volume. It is really that insane.

MSNBC embraces capitalism by looping socialism

MSNBC has decided to do a non stop loop of Obama’s 16 minute 2004 DNC speech until President Trump’s wall address to the nation is over. It is indeed a choice as an independent network to embrace the free market to cater to its audience.

Although MSNBC should not be surprised if Trump or Huckabee Sanders skip the network’s reporters during question time at White House briefings. Easy argument to make that their viewers don’t care much for what their leader has to say in any event. Best pick networks that have audiences interested in the machinations at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

MSNBC spokesman, Harland Dorrinson, claimed the cable news station’s own research showed next to zero people wanted to watch the national event and the rerun was a better bet. Would love to see the polling figures of who was asked. Staff cafeteria perhaps?

CM has argued for a long time that reduction in Trump’s airtime by the mainstream media is their strongest asset in taking the wind out of his sails. However to date, even though 99% of the coverage is negative (sometimes deserved), Trump is on a non-stop loop with hysteric items of news with next to no relevance dominating coverage. After all Melania wore Timberlands in Iraq – a source of national importance to Americans.

Despite this, Trump’s popularity ratings remain ahead of the majority of the very world leader’s that MSNBC fawn over. These are facts as distasteful as they are to many.

It should be known that there has been a long standing unwritten rule when a sitting president addresses the nation that the media complies for the sake of getting that message out to all citizens. By all means MSNBC could run a panel of experts to vilify the bigoted man behind the wall construction after the address with rigorous debate. Instead they chose to snub. On the other hand it is fair to say in today’s world, anyone wanting to watch will be able to do via C-SPAN or social media.

Ultimately markets will judge whether MSNBC got the viewer stats to back the strategy but surely there was a better opportunity to draw audiences than a 15 yo loop which only cements its reputation for overwhelming partisan bias. Perhaps Reagan’s 1987 speech in Berlin calling for Gorbachev to “tear down this wall” would have been a more apt address to throw two fingers up at Trump? Perhaps even he might get the subtlety of the barb? Use your imagination MSNBC!

Write Ocasio-Cortez off at your peril

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez might be the New Democrat piñata for a band of Republican supporters but beware. While it is true she is weak on facts, how economics works and a whole other range of political topics, she has 1.9mn followers on Twitter, more than Nany Pelosi. If she gets the right sort of campaign team behind her she could become a serious threat to the GOP and incumbent Democrats alike.

She didn’t really have any dollars to fight her nomination on the NY Dem ticket but she booted the 14 year incumbent Joe Crowley and won the 2018 mid term with 80% of the vote. Hardly something achieved by a complete fool, wouldn’t you say?

Think about it. She’s a millennial. She’s deeply socialist, pro climate change and all the pet causes of her generation. The latest shrill surrounding her dancing while at college is frankly pathetic. Who cares?

CM was critical of those who bashed Republicans over a lack of intelligence. It was a key part of why people refrained from openly supporting Trump in the lead up to the 2016 election. The polls and mainstream media all pointed to a Clinton coronation and were rudely shocked when the opposite happened. The ballot box is all that matters. The irony of Paddy Power paying out those who bet on a Clinton win. That’s how badly so many got it wrong. They completely missed the mood.

Pelosi and Feinstein are 78 and 85 years old respectively. Ocasio-Cortez is not even 30. We can already see the incumbent Democrats become uncomfortable as the younger generation wants to take the party hard left. Ocasio-Cortez’s pulling power is evident. Media attention is never far away.

Don’t forget she turned on Senator Kirsten Gillibrand after her resounding  nomination win saying, “Unsurprising, but disappointing that @SenGillibrand didn’t even bother to talk to nor consider me before endorsing…You‘d think a progressive leader would at least be interested in how a no-corporate money Bronx Latina triggered the 1st NY-14 primary in 14 years on prog issues. 

Republican supporters who troll her Twitter feeds only enhance her bidding. They lift her profile and if anything only cause more millennials to rush to her defence. Her retweets are up there with Trump who has 30x more followers. Don’t dismiss it. Trump’s rise to POTUS came from Democrats and mainstream media coverage that reported on pointless trivialities so far removed from what voters were screaming for.

If AO-C gets a good team behind her she will be a force to be reckoned with. As is so often the case with people so easily dismissed is that she becomes a sleeper. She can only improve how to come across more intelligently. She ticks plenty of identity boxes in a world that seems to place greater emphasis on diversity and inclusion.

She maybe new to the game but it will be interesting how the incumbent Democrats deal with her. Will they try to suppress her or mold her into a dynamo? Her storming of Pelosi’s office alongside environmental activists suggests that maybe the old guard Democrats try to keep a lid on her but sadly they lack time and adaption to new age technology on their side which Ocasio-Cortez has in spades.

Write her off at your peril.

Does the data show Donald in the dumpster?

Midterm

This is a simple schematic of first term presidents and the results at the ballot box of their first mid term. Since 1910, the incumbent parties have invariably lost ground. More interestingly, Democrats had control of either/both House of Reps and Senate during Nixon, Ford, Reagan and Bush Sr – all Republicans. Republican Presidents Taft, Harding, Hoover, Eisenhower and Trump lost the House at the midterms. Truman, Clinton and Obama suffered the same fate for the Democrats.

Trump achieved the highest number of Senate seats taken by a first term Republican president for over 100 years. George W Bush achieved rising numbers for HoR/Senate  post 9/11 but only Democrats have achieved the feat – Woodrow Wilson, FDR and JFK. Perhaps the irrelevance of the outcomes in the mid-terms is that despite the floggings Wilson, Truman, Ike, Reagan, Clinton, Bush Jr and Obama all were comfortably reelected for a second term.

Given the headwinds Trump was facing from the mainstream media, his unorthodox outbursts, twitter tirades and so forth, the electorate didn’t grant the Democrats a huge gift  they were expecting. Even worse they gave Trump a bigger authority to appoint SC justices should an opportunity arise by bumping his numbers in the Senate. Not surprising given the shocking gutter level political theatre over Justice Kavanaugh, vindicated by  victims confessing they had lied.

The Democrats should still be concerned that the $70mn spent on Beto O’Rourke came to nothing.  Beyonce also endorsed Beto. Oprah endorsed Abrams in Georgia – who is likely to lose. Taylor Swift endorsed Bredesen – who also lost. All four candidates openly supported by Obama lost. So much for celebrity power swaying electorates. It probably had a counter effect.

Even worse, in Nevada a brothel owner and reality TV star won his race despite dying last month. It is hard to work out what is the bigger tragedy. Voting for someone dead or being the competing Democrat to lose to a dead person. A Republican is to be appointed to the seat by county officials.

We shouldn’t forget that the Republicans had the highest number of sitting member retirements at a first midterm in the House of Representatives for 88 years. 25 seats had a new face. Republicans won re-election as governors in New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts and Maryland – three of them deep blue states. Where was the mainstream media on that?

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Turnout was good (for a mid term). 48.1% voted in 2018. In the last 100 years the average has been 41%. Only in 1966, did the first midterm of LBJ exceed this level at 48.7%. So much for either party causing a red or blue wave. Less than half of eligible voters showed up on November 6th 2018. More cared, but not enough.

Felons make for an interesting outlier subset. While it is hard to know their exact voting intentions, for the Gubernatorial in Georgia, would 219,431 felons have made a difference for Abrams? She trails Kemp by just under 100,000 votes. So if 55% of felons (the Georgia midterm turnout ratio) voted, 120,687 votes were up for grabs. Were it legal for Georgian state felons to vote, she would have been wise to campaign there.

Felons

Now that the Democrats have the lower house, one wonders why they have put Nancy Pelosi in charge of the House? This is possibly to be contested. Up to fifty Democrat congressmen might oppose her for Speaker. Trump couldn’t wish for a better adversary as her litany of gaffes will undoubtedly embarrass her party. Pelosi represents pretty much everything Americans have come to despise about the Democrats.

More worryingly, Maxine Waters is being put in charge of the Financial Services Committee. At a point in the cycle where financial acumen is probably most required, this is an embarrassment, made worse by her open calls for payback.

The Democrats need fresh faces. Ones that will look for bipartisan support. If the Democrats embark upon a cocktail of revenge politics and look to push for investigation after investigation in order to impeach Trump but end up with nothing they will be seen for what they are – a party completely self-absorbed with petty vendettas. The toxic Senate debacle should have given them warning enough that voters won’t tolerate more political roadkill like that going forward.  Yet Pelosi will likely use her subpoena powers to drag everything through the gutter instead of working to improve things for Americans. Failure here will only lead the electorate to conclude they wasted two years and gift wrap 2020 for Trump.

This mid-term election was anything but a slam dunk. Put aside personal hatred of Trump, look at the data and see that Americans did not write him off as many pundits predicted. It should be more scary to realise that he is probably more Teflon-Don than he was in 2016. Second biggest mid-term turnout in history, highest net gain of seats in the Senate in 100 years for a first term GOP president, record dollars thrown at Democrat candidates backed by Trump-hating billionaires. At the end of the day folks, this is just the data talking.

Mid Term Turnout.png

Trump mid term victory more probable than not

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Actions not words. Forget all of one’s personal opinions (hatred) of Trump and analyze the facts.  This is a picture of Obama trying to rally Democrats in Nevada this week. Despite the small audience, Obama mentioned himself 92 times in 38 minutes as opposed to talking up the candidate he was there to support. Sounded like a desperate attempt to save his own legacy. The following pictures are of Trump’s rally for Ted Cruz in Houston, Texas.

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Conventional wisdom tells us that the party in opposition tends to get the House in the mid terms. Politics is in such a funk, why would we for one second believe that consensus should be the default in November 2018? How did that work out on 2016?

Ahh yes, but the Democrats have learned from treating the prior election as a coronation for Hillary Clinton. They’ll be out in droves. No doubt they will but after the Kavanaugh debacle in the Senate and over 10,000 strong Honduran caravan surging to the US southern border (the Dems have been eerily quiet over this) it only plays to Trump’s domestic agenda. What many overlook is that ICE records indicate there are  474,000 illegal immigrants still in the queue for processing. Four hundred and seventy four thousand. Think of the costs to process that.

So to the polls? They were wildly inaccurate at the 2016 election. Largely because they are telephone polls to 1,000 people with landlines. Hardly an accurate assessment. Only old folk have landlines now don’t they?

A MSN (left leaning) online poll conducted last month showed 76% of 73,000 would lean Republican in the mid terms. How valuable are polls? Let’s be honest, a Fox poll leaning to conservatives and and a CNN poll swaying to liberals Shouldnt shock anyone. It is the anomaly that should cause us to question a mood as this MSN poll did. Are 73,000 people representative of the 250mn eligible to vote? More than 1,000 would be that is for sure.

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Once again, forget personal dislikes for Trump. If a p*ssy grabbing, racist, xenophobic, bigoted, nationalist silver back Nazi orange buffoon as he is often referred to as can get this many people to a gathering imagine if he had none of the baggage? Potentially less people because there is not as much shock value.

CM has said for ages that the mainstream media is his best ally. The constant one-eyed bias against him only gives more air time. He is a showman. The White House has become  a reality TV program. All the MSM does is feed his exposure. Sadly ratings reflect that he is winning. The media can only tell the public that Trump is the antithesis of the establishment so many times before it wears thin and people tune out.

Then again perhaps it is more telling that the average American doesn’t look to him as a spiritual leader. Or put that another way, the mid terms will be a measure of how successful he has been to date (even if blasted Russian bots meddling in the voting machines are behind it).

If he has genuinely helped put Americans on a better financial footing in their minds that is all that matters to them. Call Stormy ‘Horseface’, slag off Blasey-Ford for her amnesia and bash CNN at a rally for “fake news”. None of it matters. It appears Americans are less likely to be intimidated by thuggery (chasing Republicans out of restaurants or shooting them) of the left than to join their ranks as the #WalkAway campaign has demonstrated.

Trump is the most left field curve ball President in US history.  So unconventional in his diplomacy. He has shown that pushing back can get results. Whether smashing NATO members for failing to execute on  their own self imposed military spending targets, stopping Rocketman testing nukes or getting Juncker to sign an FTA a week after he stumbled blind drunk at a NATO summit there is some method to the madness.

In two weeks time we’ll get a result which will reflect the mood of America. The observation of CM is that the Dems are playing all the same party tricks as the 2016 election albeit at 11.

CM may be well off the reservation on this but those same vibes from Nov 2015 suggest Trump may well upset decades of history. Fake views? Allie Stuckey did a rather amusing parody of the Democrats here.

We’ll know soon enough.