True colours of the left exposed when it comes to white Sth African farmers


There is something to be said of the left when it comes to compassion. For all of the sanctimony of how we must do our bit for social justice and fight to stop every -ism in the world, whites need not apply. It shouldn’t have escaped many that certain “white” South African farmers are fleeing persecution while their land is being confiscated. Murders, beatings of men and women, children having their faces given the “joker’s cut” with razor blades. It’s truly horrific. Yet some are prepared to cynically fire off “the poor whites…”

Yet because of their skin colour some on the left deem their “white privilege” should be checked first. It would seem in order to restore justice, white South African farmers should get a taste of their own medicine after the oppression of apartheid some 30+ years ago. Surely people in need are indeed just that – in need. Are all white farmers guilty of apartheid? Back of the line. Sacrifice your lives for the sake of equality.

Australia is often beaten over the head for its asylum seeker policies. That somehow asylum seekers kept in detention centres (where they demand Hyatt 5-star  services and amenities) awaiting processing on Manus Island got a raw deal as ‘fellow whites’ get a fast pass. What the media, like The Guardian often fail to do is report the balance. Immigration Minister Dutton fast tracked the visas of 700 Yazidi women who had escaped ISIS rape gangs. They aren’t white. They were in grave danger. Instead of congratulations it wasn’t reported.

On the flip side 12 Iranians had their visas revoked by Dutton’s office for lying in their applications. They had pleaded they were fleeing persecution in Iran yet the first thing they did on receipt of visas was to fly back to the very danger zone they had escaped for a holiday. Was that racist policy or one that is simply preventing visa fraud to ensure integrity in the immigration system?

Asylum seeker policy is a touchy subject. How Angela Merkel was praised for her social caring programme by granting a come one come all refugee policy, one which ended up being the mother of all misguided altruism. Instead of helping the truly needy, the EU tallied that 80% were economic migrants seeking better fortunes in the West. That’s right 80% weren’t fleeing war zones.

Since she started her benevolence, Merkel gagged the media, muzzled the police and silenced those that spoke out about the cover up of the deterioration in public safety, rapes and crime which even now Merkel admits has led to the creation of no go zones which never existed before. She’s now paying for refugees to leave with generous incentives. Yet where is the left’s media outrage? Why not just admit it was a dreadfully executed policy which cost her the worst election result for her party in 70 years and gave the anti-immigrant AfD the second largest following in Germany from nowhere?

Then the folly is extended to the EU which then tried to cover up for Merkel by enforcing migrant quotas like they were cattle. Asylum seekers were mostly making a B-line to Germany yet the EU in its infinite wisdom thought all members had a duty to take a share. If they truly spared a thought for asylum seekers, why would any wish to be allocated to countries like Hungary that held a referendum on the topic and got a 98.4% response against having them? Not a promising starting point.  Then we sit back and wonder why the Italians voted for anti-immigrant, eurosceptic parties? Or why the UK voted Brexit? Or why the Austrians also voted in a government that put a right wing anti-immigration party in charge of immigration? Or The Netherlands? Poland? Hungary? The list goes on.

Yet the media focuses on a drowning 3 year-old boy on a shoreline and tried to shame our collective lack of compassion. Still the media refused to focus on the billion dollar illegal people smuggling industry that lured so many who weren’t fleeing persecution to their deaths. That poor little Aylan Kurdi died, not  because he and his family were fleeing  to safety (they already had been for 3 years in Turkey) but that his life was put at risk without a life jacket in a flimsy vessel for the sake of his father’s own dental treatment.

Why not beat Gulf states over the head for not doing their bit? The Saudis can accommodate 3 million, chair the UN Human Rights Council yet refuse to step up and the media stays silent. Why not smash up Japan for letting in low double digit numbers of asylum seekers? Is it a coincidence that the 98% homogeneous society has such low crime rates, social harmony and safety record the envy of the world? It is not to say that foreigners commit most of the crime in Japan because they don’t (per head of population they do) but Japan is not prepared to throw its culture out the window to get with the times on doing its bit for humanity. Japan would prefer to throw billions in foreign aid to fix the problem at source.

The better narrative is to pick on the West. Shame our white privilege. Mock our colonialist past and tell South African farmers to go to hell.

Compassion for the truly needy should only depend on the danger faced. Skin colour, religion, sexual orientation or any other identity based criteria should be irrelevant. People who are desperately fleeing for their lives should fall over themselves to willingly respect the rules of their new house. They should be only too happy to repay the generosity of those that provide safety and strive to become model citizens. Many Vietnamese fleeing the ravages or the Vietnam War have paid back our support in spades.

Yet too often those who have not escaped persecution end up being the ones that expect society to bend to their culture not the other way around. Our authorities and judiciaries are becoming self annointed justice warriors often turning a blind eye to crime by meting out lenient sentences for armed robbery, rape, child grooming, assault and manslaughter with paltry community service orders. Take this example. Ibrahim Kamara, from Sierra Leone, received a suspended sentence of just over one year, with an 18-month good ­behaviour order, after admitting to five counts, including grooming and having sex with a minor. The ACT Supreme Court judge said “(Kamara) has tried to make a good start on his life in Australia”. Or last week a Sudanese woman, Ayou Deng, was given 80 hours community service for running over and killing a 13yo boy in a car she was driving unlicensed. What message is being sent to the people that we would hope want to integrate in the great Aussie way of life? Do what you please as the worst you’ll get is a slap on the wrist.

Then should we criticize Australia’s asylum seeker policy when we ask for the recipients of asylum visas to sign a code of conduct order which explicitly tells them that rape and sexual harassment of women and children is not accepted? Surely civilized society shouldn’t need to have to force new arrivals to sign a document for common decency but apparently they do. Clearly the immigration department saw it as a requirement supposedly to stem the tide of countless incidents before it was introduced. Then again Canada is trying to remove female genital mutilation from its new citizen’s code of conduct for fear it might offend. You can’t make this stuff up.

So to the left that wants to selectively administer asylum seeker policy based on prejudices. In the quest for diversity they should check their own hypocrisy before asking white South African farmers to check their privilege as they cry for genuine grounds for asylum. The true colours of the left are exposed for what they are. Institutionalized diversity folks is anything but. No one wins acceptance by denying their own identity,

A link between crime & IQ?


While updating all of the data for crime in Japan, CM was intrigued by the IQ test data compiled by the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) for all 20,000 new inmates in 2016. The average IQ recorded was 81.4. All said and told, 57.4% of new inmates scored an IQ of more than 80. The MoJ also recorded that the level of education attained by criminals showed 62.5% had attained a maximum of middle school (years 7-9) or dropped out of high school (years 10-12).


Japan has a high school matriculation rate of around 95% which places it in the top 4 countries around the world. The US has around a 76% completion rate (rank 13) for high school according to the OECD.

To study IQ for inmates on a more global basis, a 2003 study by Ellis & Walsh revealed that of all the Texas inmates who entered the prison system in 2002 approx. 23% of the inmates scored below 80, almost 69% scored between 80 and 109, and only 9.6% scored above 110. The average was 85. The Prison Reform Trust in the UK said 1/3 of prisoners had an IQ less than 80 and one-third of that was less than 70. A Levine study in 2011 showed that those who had been to jail had a mean IQ of 89.61 while those who had not who had a mean IQ of 100.6.

Although a deeper look at serial killers showed extremely high IQs. The Dating Game serial killer Rodney Alcala had a reported IQ of 170. Uni-bomber Ted Kaczynski 167 and Jeffrey Dahmer 144. Hideo Murai, chief scientist of the Aum Shinrikyo (responsible for the Tokyo subway sarin attacks), was also reported t have an IQ of 160. On the other and, Australia’s worst mass murderer, Martin Bryant, reportedly has an IQ of only 68.

We shouldn’t forget that months after winning a national title, Harvard’s debate team lost to a group of New York prison inmates. A three-judge panel concluded that the jailbirds had raised arguments the Harvard team had failed to consider or was it a slight bias that the judges feared repercussions were they ever released?

Many prevailing theories of intelligence suggest people with lower IQs are most likely to break the law, since impulsivity, struggles at school and a lack of social bonding are all linked to criminality.  Although James Oleson, a criminologist based at the University of Auckland in NZ, suggests real-life geniuses have a penchant for breaking the law. He noted there may be an IQ threshold after which a high it becomes more of a risk factor for committing crimes. Intelligent offenders were more likely to get away with their crimes.

The flip-side to claiming mental disability is also that of avoiding execution. In the US, there are some states debating whether an inmate with an IQ below 70 cam be executed on the grounds he or she may not have sufficient mental faculty. Abandoning the 70-point IQ cutoff could double the number of death row inmates who claim they are mentally disabled.

According to the 2005 Annual Report on Government Measures for Persons with Disabilities published by the Japan Cabinet Office, of the total estimated 3,600,000 people with a mental disability, 459,000 people possessed the Certificate of Mental Retardation – 12% of all mentally disabled people in Japan possess it vs. 6.3% of mentally disabled inmates. The Yokohama National University suggested this clearly indicates a tendency that people who are bound to be in prisons are less likely to have possessed the certificate, therefore likely to have missed some form of assistance from social welfare programs.

Morie and Matsushi wrote, “5.9% of all population on average is categorized as intellectually disabled. However, the percentage of children who are classified as mentally disabled and receiving special education as well as social welfare is stagnant at 1%. Because the Certificate of Mental Retardation is only issued upon request, many of the parents/guardians are reluctant to apply due to the fear of being stigmatized. This is especially true for a mild case of mental retardation. Lack of appropriate education and opportunity to receive social welfare can lead the children with mental disability to anti-social behavior, ultimately connecting them to crimes. Therefore, guardians should be strongly recommended to apply for the certificate without hesitation…”

Although it is worth noting that despite prison capacity in Japan expanding 50% over the last decade, the number of inmates is 31% lower at around 56,000 or 62% capacity, down from 105% at the peak. Compared to the 2.2mn prisoners in the US, Japan is still at the very low end of the crime spectrum. That is to say the US has 13.1x the number of prisoners relative to the population than Japan. The US ranks 1st while Japan ranks 35th.

Hard to work out who is more mentally deranged?


It is honestly hard to work out who is more deranged – policy makers or the perpetrators? Before the bleeding hearts come out saying that we have a moral duty to provide safety to those in need I will tell them I couldn’t agree more. Having said that anyone fleeing for their life must be so completely and utterly relishing the prospect of a new chance, Not looking to plough a vehicle into innocent civilians. Not look to invade people’s homes, car jack and commit assault and battery much less try to set a petrol station on fire.While the Victorian Police and State Government are using the excuse that the (not so called)  terrorist  was  “mentally deranged”  take a look at the Australian Code of Behaviour that new arrivals are asked to commit to. Don’t molest, sexually assault or rape women or children. On what grounds are we looking to accept people that are so bereft of common decency?

Do we require cultural sensitivity training? What on earth is society thinking if such common humanistic basics require a contract? Clearly because the risks of them being committed is too high, Perhaps that is why Trudeau’s Liberal government is pushing to remove ‘female genital mutilation (FGM) from the Canadian Citizen’s Guide. Listening to a committee on the subject, Conservative Party members got absolutely no reassurance that this would be retained in the guide. Indeed the Liberals were looking to ‘consult’ so they could deflect responsibility, Then again returning ISIS terrorists won’t be arrested but given rehabilitation with a combination of haiku, poetry and podcasts. Yes that’s the level of rolling over. Close your eyes wide shut. Nothing to see here.

So instead of calling Melbourne’s attack for what it is even after the mentally deranged has left his intentions be known we hide behind political correctness so as not to offend. Then again the Victorian Police’s recruitment drive offered segregated information sessions. Just the ticket to have a police force that serves under certain conditions. It is a farce,

Many complain that Australia’s refugee policy has been unjust. Is the rescue and fast-tracking of visa applications for 700 Yazidi women who escaped the rape of ISIS fighters not stepping up to the plate? How much praise should be government to the women from federal immigration who are on the ground processing? The highest.  Is the rescinding of a dozen Iranian asylum seekers’ visas unjust when on receipt of them flew directly back to the country that supposedly they were fleeing for their lives from? They lied. No sympathy.

Nothing is simple but the citizens (even of regressive in Victoria) can see through this constant politically correct garbage. Yes we can point to the Vegas shooter and to a host of other Christian criminals but the fact of the matter is to call out the problem for what it is, whenever it occurs. Casting religion aside, to run down innocent civilians in a car is most definitely deranged. Doing it in the name of a sky-daddy doesn’t justify it but deliberately avoiding the I or M words when they are used during the act just p*sses people off. Call it for what it is,.

Perhaps the Code of Behaviour should carry an “immediate deportation” clause for anyone that commits crimes. Any legitimate asylum seekers will have no worry that they’d ever trigger the clause because they truly value the next stage of their lives and we should welcome everyone that seeks to want to make a contribution in exactly the way the Australian wat off life provides.  Welcome.

Lock’em up – Prisons in America – The facts


The Nation reported that the number of privately run prisons is on the move under Trump. At the moment private prisons make up around 5% of the 2.3mn prison population at present. The US now spends $90bn every year to incarcerate these jailbirds or around $39,000 a head (similar to Japan). According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis we had a lull in expenditure on jails after the Lehman collapse. Indeed several states were releasing ‘lower’ risk criminals from prison in order to cut their deficits. This has driven the growth in private prisons.


According to The Nation, “18 states spend more on incarceration than on higher education, and one study found that the total cost of incarceration, including social costs, adds up to $1 trillion. One point seven million children in the United States have a parent in prison, more than 70 million Americans (about one in three) have a criminal record, and those enormous impacts are suffered unequally: While African Americans are about 13 percent of the US population, they make up 37 percent of the male prison population.

The Nation highlights also that “these private prisons are important to understand and discuss because, while only about 8 percent of the current state prison population is housed in for-profit facilities, about 18 percent of those behind bars in the federal system are in these prisons, and over 60 percent of immigration-detention beds are operated by these corporations” the newspaper is overstating the performance of the stocks. While indeed the largest company, CoreCivic (CXV0 rallied off the election it has none-the-less returned to earth.


Also earnings whether in revenue or profit terms actually peaked under Obama’s administration.


While the numbers are horrific in themselves, incarceration in the US costs the equivalent of the Slovak Republic’s GDP.

On public safety alone the US is now spending $375bn p.a or the equivalent of Austria or just over half what the country outlays on defence. So combined the US spends $1 trillion per annum on ‘protection.

The Nation also notes, “The Trump administration appears to be focused on expanding the number of undocumented individuals who are detained behind bars in this country. For one, his administration requested more than $1.2 billion [in reality a 1.3% increase] in the 2018 federal budget to expand detention capacity to more than 48,000 beds a day. To put this into perspective: According to ICE, the current daily capacity ranges from about 31,000 to 41,000. And in April, the administration handed GEO group a $110 million contract to build and run a 1,000-bed detention center in Conroe, Texas. And, most recently, ICE issued “requests to identify,” which are basically pre-requests for proposals, from contractors who can house immigrant detainees in South Texas as well as in the interior of the country in places like Chicago, Detroit, and Salt Lake City.

As a reference the border wall is priced at around $10bn.

As an investment, perhaps the US private jails look a bit oversold with the hype immediately  post the election behind us. At 13x P/E for CVX perhaps a turnaround in its earnings potential is ahead of us and a discount to the market with minimal downside risks make it a proper bricks and mortar investment. The above forecasts look reasonably conservative.

Who will do the bidding to accommodate Mrs Clinton? Perhaps a premium will be warranted.


Scotland bans smacking children. Would you arrest Toya Graham?

Scotland is banning smacking children. It is a contentious issue. Sensible parenting would suggest spanking is done as an absolute last resort. Germany has banned it since 2000. Of course, preventing child abuse is a no-brainer. Recall single mum Toya Graham who shot to fame after slapping her son when she found he disobeying her direct order to stay away from the Baltimore protests. She gave her son a schooling which was widely praised in the media. Call it tough love or whatever but her son literally didn’t know what hit him. How anyone could see it as anything other than unconditional love for her ‘only’ son is beyond words? Even the media were calling her “Mom of the year”.

Yet in this powder-puff world, more laws are being put in place to wrap kids in cotton wool and cage parents behind barbed wire. Is it any wonder we have so many unadjusted millennials who need safe spaces, trigger warnings to prevent micro-aggressions? Why not ban rugby and football for kids because by the same token, contact sports are inherently violent and would only reinforce the many studies which have tried to link those kids who are on the receiving end of corporal punishment to being “more” likely to be aggressive.

As a statistician though, collecting enough credible data on this is incredibly hard to do. For one, kids stepping out of line is not only random in terms of time and severity but age and a whole host of factors. Can one honestly say that a kid who was smacked twice a year is likely to be twice as prone to anxiety in later life than one smacked once a year? Can we honestly link the event of a father smacking his 7yo who stole money from his mother’s purse to buy candy was directly related to his PTSD in later life? Indeed if there is serious and continuous child abuse then that is a whole different story. What is next? Will the government use a stern telling off by a parent as ‘verbal abuse’ of children? Who  determines the line of what constitutes parenting and abuse?

Perhaps we should look at the incidence of single parent households around the world. Maybe parent responsibility (or rather lack thereof) is a far bigger factor in causing ‘problems’ in later life than a smack for insolence. Starting with America – the top 10 counties where kids are in households raised by one parent is over 70% with the ironically named Loving County in Texas the top at almost 100%. In Japan single parent households are now 25% of all families up from 15% in 1990. In Scotland, 25% of families (170,000) are single parent. As a statistician it is far easier to draw a link between growing single parent households and maladjusted kids. The bottom line is that there is a large body of literature showing that children of single parents are more likely to commit crimes than children who grow up with their married parents.

From the report ‘The Real Root Causes of Violent Crime: The Breakdown of Marriage, Family, and Community

“Most delinquents are children who have been abandoned by their fathers. They are often deprived also of the love and affection they need from their mother. Inconsistent parenting, family turmoil, and multiple other stresses (such as economic hardship and psychiatric illnesses) that flow from these disagreements compound the rejection of these children by these parents, many of whom became criminals during childhood. With all these factors working against the child’s normal development, by age five the future criminal already will tend to be aggressive, hostile, and hyperactive. Four-fifths of children destined to be criminals will be “antisocial” by 11 years of age, and fully two-thirds of antisocial five-year-olds will be delinquent by age 15.”

Maybe the Scots should make getting divorce much harder more than preventing corporal punishment? After all single parent benefits are so easy to get making the decision to split so much easier. In Japan divorces sky-rocketed when the government entitled women to 50% of their spouse’s pension. Policy matters.

Before those that want to point at poverty as a factor in crime they might want to know that the Chinese in San Francisco in the mid-1960s had the lowest family income of any ethnic group (less than $4,000 per year) but next to no crime: only 5 Chinese in all of California were then in prison.

How many parents today use iPhones or iPads as modern day pacifiers to naughty kids as a substitute for good parenting? Easier to stuff an iPhone in their face after they’ve stepped out of line than spend 5 minutes looking eye to eye to explain right and wrong. Instead threats like “wait til I tell your father when he gets home” have been replaced by WiFi password changes, temporary confiscations of devices and the cruelest of all – denial of the charger. Different families have different views about discipline. Yet, kids are continuous learners – they quickly learn what they can and can’t get away with. They are sponges. Who could forget this video of a 3yo kid obviously copying his father saying to his mother, “Linda, Linda, Honey! Listen!” Little Kevin worked out that Grandma was a far softer target.

I’m sure most kids from my generation have had a smack from a parent which was thoroughly deserved. I am sure most of you have made it without safe spaces or trigger warnings. So before the Scots declare a huge victory over banning smacking kids, perhaps society needs a deeper hard look at these other issues.

Kobe ‘Steal’ – why this scandal could get much uglier


Kobe Steel is the next in a growing list of Japanese corporates embroiled in data falsification. Kobe Steel has been supplying lower spec material to customers than advertised. In a sense stealing. Sure VW is no better in lying about its emissions but Kobe Steel has the potential to be more like Takata than Mitsubishi Motors in terms of impact. The issue here has to do with Kobe Steel products being in structures of aircraft, trains (including bullet trains) and cars. While much is being made of ‘little risk’ attached to these slightly lower spec products the reality is that ‘metal fatigue’ is calculated in the resesearch, development, testing and evaluation of such products.

For instance when planes are in the development phase FAA certification depends on making sure products can meet certain tolerances, cycles and stress tests. Once certification is granted, if subsequent production is met by sub-standard intermediate products unbeknownst to the manufacturer of the part then the trail becomes a much more serious matter. It is easy enough to determine which Honda’s had defective airbags as it is a specific part on specific models. Yet Kobe Steel steel products shipped all over the globe may have been used in different parts. Then those discrete parts would need to be traced to the next intermediate stage and then on to the finished part to which may be fixed to an airline on the other side of the world. Boeing is naturally not raising any alarms until they can assess the issue.

JR has already noted 310 sub standard parts in wheel bearings in its bullet trains which will be replaced at the next scheduled service. It is likely that the JR parts are over spec for the extra margin of safety.

None-the-less aircraft could turn into a much bigger problem. There is only one spec that is supposed to be met. Failure to meet it could cause planes to be grounded until parts are replaced. This could be massively costly as planes not in the air earning money cost millions on the ground. Not to mention the risk of the US government fining the company for reckless behaviour.

Kobe Steel has seen revenues track sideways for the better part of a decade. Profits have been all over the shop. Much like Toshiba tried to fiddle the books with one division in the hope that in time it would be able to put the money back and no one would notice. As for Kobe Steel, there was obviously a plan to try to boost profitability by lowering specs and charging prices for superior spec. Even then the contribution has been poor. Hardly surprising when the cash conversion cycle has exploded from 38 days a decade ago to around 82 today. To be faker most of the big steel companies have a similar CCC which hasn’t changed much over the last decade.

What we can be pretty sure of will be the soft touch of the local authorities. Even with such willful deceit, it is unlikely anyone will see inside of a jail cell or pay multi million dollar fines in Japan. However the tail risk here is the likes of Boeing who will extract every pound of flesh with the help of its authorities to rent seek from Kobe Steel if certain parts are found to be ultimately faulty because of negligence. This is not a staged Nissan-Mitsubishi Motors leak to force a cheap entry into the latter. Still, 37,000 employees at Kobe Steel will be seen as a sizable number to protect at a national level hence a limp wristed response to follow.

One final point. Do we honestly think that Kobe Steel can conduct an honest audit of its deceit? Surely flagrant data fiddling will be milled down to more acceptable cheating.  It is a time honored tradition to leak a bit, then a bit more so as to minimize the shame.

Until Japanese listed corporates face far harsher penalties for such malfeasance, it will be hard to shake off the cynicism that the corporate governance code has introduced anything more than mere lip service. That is OK if that is what Japan wants to project to the world that shareholders are not a priority.

National Felon League (NFL)

It changes the moral high ground on the debate on the NFL when dragging it down into the statistics of the players themselves. Perhaps some players are taking a knee to stop themselves being held accountable by the very laws they break. 713 different players between 2000-2014 have been arrested, Shocking list of charges – rape, murders, shootings, animal cruelty, prostitution rings, assault, robbery, illegal gun possession, DUI, resisting arrest and so forth. So ask yourself why fans might get turned off being lectured to by these social justice footballers? Great role models.

Makes the NRL in Australia look like a bunch of choir boys.

With pay TV viewership and game attendance continuing to fall (according to Nielsen) we are seeing some team owners like the Steelers begging fans to accept it’s just a misunderstanding and sponsors like Nike sticking up for the NFL because they want to make sure their investment sustains a return. Budweiser will be the big swing factor on the NFL. It proudly promotes it has 11,000 veterans working for it. Pepsi, Budweiser’s Anheuser-Busch InBev paid $1.4 billion to sponsor the NFL out to 2022. When AB InBev first inked this deal in 2011 (to last through the 2017 Super Bowl) it paid $1.2 billion. Not small pennies. DirecTV has announced they will give full refunds to customers who want to cancel their NFL channel. Of course DirecTV will be asking the NFL to cover the costs of that.

No matter what one’s views are, the NFL will live and die by their actions. As mentioned yesterday, taking a knee is now so commonplace it is actually no longer seen as the protest it was originally done for. Then again, all the NFL is bringing on itself is the double standards of many of its players.