#caravan

Beasts at the border?

A lot of negative noise has been made about the actions of the Customs & Border Protection (CBP) employees in the US. Notably, the arrest statistics across the entire staff of 59,178 totalled 254 people. Only 2 people were arrested for sexual misconduct. Two-thirds of the crimes that led to the arrest of CBP staff were alcohol or DV related. The Annual Report published in 2018 notes that the trend fell marginally.

The CBP Standards of Conduct state that in order to fulfill its mission, CBP and its employees must sustain the trust and confidence of the public they serve. As such, any violation of law by a CBP employee is inconsistent with and contrary to the Agency’s law enforcement mission. CBP’s Standards of Conduct specify that certain conduct, on and off-duty, may subject an employee to disciplinary action. These standards serve as notice to all CBP employees of the Agency’s expectations for employee conduct wherever and whenever they are.

Rep Jerry Nadler is calling for CBP officials to face ‘child abuse’ sanctions. Substantiated ‘crimes involving children leading to arrest numbered only 6. Six too many one might say but hardly a sign of widespread child abuse. 

We can see the total number of formal disciplinary warnings and sanctions against staff as follows over the past 3 years.

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Note that under Trump, an 18% increase in drug testing of CBP employees (13% of the total were tested in 2017) led to a fall in positive responses to narcotics in 2017 over 2016.

A total of 12 people, or 0.02% of CBP staff, tested positive in 2017 to illicit substances.

Looking at allegations made against CBP staff, 3,806 of the 7,239 claims made were dismissed as unsubstantiated in 2017. This is down from 3,828 out of 7,740 in 2016. There were 8,253 claims in 2015. in 2017, 1,279 employees required counselling. 1,074 received written warnings. So the idea that CBP employees are merely Nazis bullying people with no consequences, it couldn’t be further from the truth. Statistically, the quarterly reported nature of the data suggest very little seasonality with respect to punishment – i.e. it is consistent.

Breaking it down by department within the CBP, 4% of the 20,954 US Border Patrol (USBP) staff were disciplined, 3% of the 29,321 Office of Field Operations (OFO) employees were cracked over the knuckles. These represented 90% of all disciplinary actions in CBP.

The highest number of CBP OFO sanctions in 2017 vs 2016 caused in the Laredo Field Office (441 -> 378), followed by the San Diego Field Office (398->408) and Tucson Field Office (328 -> 200). These figures were out of a total of 3,129 sanctions issued.

The highest number of CBP USBP sanctions in 2017 vs 2016 were caused in the Tucson Sector (809->701), followed by the Rio Grande Sector (704->568) and the El Paso Sector (317->332). These figures were out of a total of 3,168 sanctions issued.

Each year, CBP receives and reviews hundreds of allegations pertaining to use of force incidents. Authorized employees may use objectively reasonable force only when it is necessary to carry out their law enforcement duties. When these cases involve excessive force or civil rights abuse allegations, and prosecution is declined by the U.S. Attorney’s Office or the local prosecutor, the matter is then subject to an administrative investigation to determine if an employee’s actions, although not unlawful, violated Agency policy or procedure.

In FY 2015, CBP implemented a new process for reporting, tracking, and investigating use of force incidents. Under this new process, use of force cases are evaluated to determine whether the amount or type of force used was excessive or outside of Agency policy. CBP’s National Use of Force Review Board (NUFRB) reviews all lethal use of force incidents, including the use of firearms and uses of force that result in serious injury or death. The Local Use of Force Review Board reviews all less than lethal use of force incidents not addressed by the NUFRB. If there is a determination that an employee’s use of force was outside of Agency policy, the case returns to HRM for potential disciplinary action.

The remaining cases involving alleged use of force that are not handled through the NUFRB or Local Use of Force Review Boards, including allegations of excessive force, are referred to OPR or component management for review and consideration of disciplinary action.

In conclusion, CBP noted,

All CBP employees are guided by these principles of the public trust both on and off-duty. Those who breach it are held accountable for their actions.

Although the number of CBP employees arrested for misconduct on or off-duty declined for the second year in a row, the number of employees arrested continues to be a concern. CBP is addressing employee arrests through its ongoing efforts promoting education and resilience services to employees and their families, reducing the use of administrative leave or indefinite suspension when employees are subject to a criminal proceeding, and by ensuring appropriate discipline is applied.

CBP will continue to increase its transparency efforts with annual discipline overviews, publication of National Use of Force Board results, and through public engagement on our policies and operations. Finally, CBP’s internal complaints and discipline systems will remain focused on systemic improvements to reduce case investigation and administrative processing timelines and increase consistency in handling misconduct allegations and more timely arrive at discipline case decisions.”

Judge for yourself. Things are not exactly rosy, but the idea that border forces are unhinged and unaccounted is simply unfounded. To that end, steps taken to improve the situation are not limited to the following:

Improving Use of Force instruction for law enforcement personnel by extending basic training of new recruits to include a 35% increase in less lethal and 58% increase in use of force judgement/firearms related training; Adding mandatory live and computer-assisted scenario based Use of Force training for all.

Continuing release of information to the public immediately following use of force incidents and publishing monthly use of force statistics on CBP.gov

Implementing CBP’s Policy on Zero Tolerance of Sexual Abuse and Assault

We await the FY2018 figures due shortly to see whether the Trump administration has added a layer of Nazi stormtrooper to the data. CM guesses the statistics will prove otherwise.

Trump mid term victory more probable than not

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Actions not words. Forget all of one’s personal opinions (hatred) of Trump and analyze the facts.  This is a picture of Obama trying to rally Democrats in Nevada this week. Despite the small audience, Obama mentioned himself 92 times in 38 minutes as opposed to talking up the candidate he was there to support. Sounded like a desperate attempt to save his own legacy. The following pictures are of Trump’s rally for Ted Cruz in Houston, Texas.

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Conventional wisdom tells us that the party in opposition tends to get the House in the mid terms. Politics is in such a funk, why would we for one second believe that consensus should be the default in November 2018? How did that work out on 2016?

Ahh yes, but the Democrats have learned from treating the prior election as a coronation for Hillary Clinton. They’ll be out in droves. No doubt they will but after the Kavanaugh debacle in the Senate and over 10,000 strong Honduran caravan surging to the US southern border (the Dems have been eerily quiet over this) it only plays to Trump’s domestic agenda. What many overlook is that ICE records indicate there are  474,000 illegal immigrants still in the queue for processing. Four hundred and seventy four thousand. Think of the costs to process that.

So to the polls? They were wildly inaccurate at the 2016 election. Largely because they are telephone polls to 1,000 people with landlines. Hardly an accurate assessment. Only old folk have landlines now don’t they?

A MSN (left leaning) online poll conducted last month showed 76% of 73,000 would lean Republican in the mid terms. How valuable are polls? Let’s be honest, a Fox poll leaning to conservatives and and a CNN poll swaying to liberals Shouldnt shock anyone. It is the anomaly that should cause us to question a mood as this MSN poll did. Are 73,000 people representative of the 250mn eligible to vote? More than 1,000 would be that is for sure.

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Once again, forget personal dislikes for Trump. If a p*ssy grabbing, racist, xenophobic, bigoted, nationalist silver back Nazi orange buffoon as he is often referred to as can get this many people to a gathering imagine if he had none of the baggage? Potentially less people because there is not as much shock value.

CM has said for ages that the mainstream media is his best ally. The constant one-eyed bias against him only gives more air time. He is a showman. The White House has become  a reality TV program. All the MSM does is feed his exposure. Sadly ratings reflect that he is winning. The media can only tell the public that Trump is the antithesis of the establishment so many times before it wears thin and people tune out.

Then again perhaps it is more telling that the average American doesn’t look to him as a spiritual leader. Or put that another way, the mid terms will be a measure of how successful he has been to date (even if blasted Russian bots meddling in the voting machines are behind it).

If he has genuinely helped put Americans on a better financial footing in their minds that is all that matters to them. Call Stormy ‘Horseface’, slag off Blasey-Ford for her amnesia and bash CNN at a rally for “fake news”. None of it matters. It appears Americans are less likely to be intimidated by thuggery (chasing Republicans out of restaurants or shooting them) of the left than to join their ranks as the #WalkAway campaign has demonstrated.

Trump is the most left field curve ball President in US history.  So unconventional in his diplomacy. He has shown that pushing back can get results. Whether smashing NATO members for failing to execute on  their own self imposed military spending targets, stopping Rocketman testing nukes or getting Juncker to sign an FTA a week after he stumbled blind drunk at a NATO summit there is some method to the madness.

In two weeks time we’ll get a result which will reflect the mood of America. The observation of CM is that the Dems are playing all the same party tricks as the 2016 election albeit at 11.

CM may be well off the reservation on this but those same vibes from Nov 2015 suggest Trump may well upset decades of history. Fake views? Allie Stuckey did a rather amusing parody of the Democrats here.

We’ll know soon enough.