brexit

Brexit – No Deal is a No Brainer

Brexit 1.pngAs BoJo signs up more future FTA deals with the likes of America, Australia and Japan at the G7, where does Project Fear come from? What manner of spurious schoolyard bullying makes anyone think Britain will be thrown back into the stone age? Surely the exploits of Ben Stokes at Edgbaston shows only too well how the lion can roar when pushed into a corner. Plucky Brits indeed.

Looking at the latest trade stats between the EU and Britain it is simple. EU members make up 7 of the Top 10 British export markets accounting for 37.4% of all trade. Top 10 accounts for 65.9% of trade. Trump acccounts for £54.9bn vs £36.5bn from Merkel.

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On the Import side, the UK matters much more to the likes of Germany £68bn. The Dutch at £42bn and France at £28bn.

In short of the UK ‘s Top 10 importing nations, 8 are EU members. The Top 10 account for 65.7% of total. Those 8 EU nations make up 48.1%. 7.13% of Germany‘s exports end up in Blighty. One might argue that 10% of UK exports ending up in Germany is reason enough to back down. Yet why would either seek to make their position worse off. Germany is the UK’s #1 importer and Germany is the #2 destination for British exports. For Germany the UK ranks #11 importer and #3 export nation.

By all means play hard ball Brussels. Something tells me you’ll put the Brits at the front of the queue to do any trade deal. Especially Mrs Merkel. The trade surplus she runs with the UK is the equaivalent of 1% of GDP. Hardly something she will go out of her way to jeopardize given her economy went backwards last quarter.

No Deal is the best outcome. Start with a fresh slate. As soon as we start negotiating back stops and all manner of political trickery the disappointment will come thick and fast.

It is unlikely BoJo can get his Oct 31 deal done. It will take a partnership with Farage to do this. The lack of proportional represntation in British politics plays into the hands of Corbyn so there is a real necessity to ensure Brexit Party & Tory votes aren’t split like wthat experienced in the Peterborough by-election.

More stats to follow.

Toxic males and older folk still prefer Brexit to climate change

Activist group Christian Aid has published a survey of 2,072 people across representative age, gender, region and socioeconomic background to tell us that 71% of people care about the “long term” impacts of climate change than Brexit. 60% of people said that the UK government isn’t doing enough on climate change. Although looking at the questions in the ComRes survey we find when the word long term is removed it falls to 49%. Those damned toxic males make it 44% agreeing and 48% disagreeing with climate change being more pressing than Brexit in the short run. Don’t mention the older people! What do they know!? If Brexit occurs they’ll have stolen our “futures” twice!

Then by region, those pesky Northern Irelanders don’t think climate change is as important as Brexit. The double-barreled snobs in the South West are a given to be in favour of leaving the EU.

As can be seen from the Christian Aid website, it is an alarmist organization pleading its followers to bully banks into ending finance to fossil fuel industries.  HSBC is the main target.

When the next general election comes, CM thinks that Brexit will be given priority to climate. The EU elections proved that. Now that Corbyn has gone back on his word on Brexit and Boris is a “leaver” one imagines that the results of this survey will be disproven at the ballot box.

Dictator with term limits

While no one can doubt that Trump polarizes opinion, do his detractors honestly think they will win the debate by mowing a giant phallus into a lawn? Will this attempt to (literally) take the moral low ground somehow swing those who hold different opinions?

If the dictator moniker were true he would be the world’s most incompetent executor of such an office. Sadly Trump has between 1.5 and 5.5 years (likely the latter) to remain as DOTUS. Instead of 99% of the population voting for him like a Xi Jinping, Kim Jong-un or Hitler, Trump will likely garner around half. If Americans truly wanted a real dictator they would be better off voting for someone who could get 99%. Sadly democracies don’t operate like that.

The Queen, who long remembers the 80 year relationship which preserved her monarchy, knows that after Trump leaves office, the UK will still continue to have a strong bond with America. Her Majesty won’t resort to petty snubs of its head of state because she feels the need to kowtow to the intolerant mindsets of a few.

Will Americans want to see politicians like Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry show such conditional support for American democracy? Did she call for protests when the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia visited? A man with pretty questionable actions regarding journalists in embassies. No she did not.

There are far more effective ways to show courtesy to visiting dignitaries. As CM mentioned yesterday, Trump’s tweets are unstatesmanlike. It doesn’t make Thornberry or Khan’s any better.

Perhaps the Queen is sending the world a message about “the long game.” She probably knows a thing or two about diplomacy as the world’s longest serving monarch. Her state dinner invitation list is the perfect representation of who she feels needs prioritization. What an embarrassment that the UK government did not extend the invite in the first place.

God save our Queen!

EU populists thumping establishment

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EU election results so far are a disaster for the eurocrats. This was predictable. As CM has long argued, Brussels has continually ignored the issues of member states. Since 2007, poverty levels have grown from 78mn to 118mn of the EU population. UK won’t be the last to leave the EU, unless the bureaucracy in Brussels makes considerable reforms. CM bets it won’t.

UK: Brexit Party – 31.8% (populist), Tories – 7.6% (incumbent). Tories fallen from 20%. Of interest, Brexit took 38% of the West Midlands which is a slap in the face for Corbyn’s Labour Party. Even Islington, Corbyn’s home constituency, saw Labour fall behind the Lib Dems.

Greece: New Democracy 33.3% (populist), Syriza 23.9% (incumbent/socialist) – snap elections to be held

France: RN – 23.5% (nationalist), LREM 22.5% (incumbent) – Le Pen has called for snap elections.

Germany: CDU – 28.8% (incumbent), AfD – 10.8% (nationalist)

Austria: OVP – 34.9% (incumbent/nationalist), FPO – 17.2% (incumbent/nationalist)

Poland: PiS – 42.4% (incumbent/nationalist)

Italy: Liga -33.6% (populist/incumbent) + M5S – 16.7% (populist/incumbent)

Bulgaria: GERB – 30.1% (incumbent/populist)

Hungary: Fidesz – 52.1% (nationalist/incumbent)

Latvia: JV – 26% (populist/incumbent)

Sweden: Socialist Democrats – 23.6% (incumbent), Sweden Democrats – 15.4% (populist)

Czech: ANO – 21.2% (populist/incumbent)

Romania: PNL – 25.6% (populist), PSD – 21.7% (incumbent)

While results are Still coming in, it seems that the populist swell has only gathered momentum.

Voter turnout to EU elections is generally weak but this is the strongest showing since 1994. This is entirely self-inflicted. Europeans are growing increasingly frustrated at the EU’s authoritarian behaviour. The sooner this project fails the better.

While total seat numbers aren’t fully decided, the percentage terms are undoubtedly going to send shockwaves through the E.U. establishment.

Extinction Rebellion only accelerates lunacy

WIN!!! BREAKING: Environment and climate emergency unanimously declared in UK Parliament.

This is the first step in the government telling the truth about the climate and ecological emergency. Pressure on our politicians will now increase as nothing but decisive action will suffice.

This issue isn’t going away and neither will we. The International Rebellion will continue until all our demands are met.

This is the post put forward by the Extinction Rebellion (XR) today. There is some irony as to how a parliament that can’t vote the will of the people over three years, can unanimously find an immediate position on a “climate emergency” after being visited by a 16yo. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn called the motion.

What exactly is a climate emergency? Wales, Scotland and cities like Bristol have declared it but not defined it. If we need any further evidence of how dysfunctional UK politics is, this confirms it. Not one dissenting voice? Virtue signaling to fix a problem that constantly gets debunked and worse no well thought out positions. Or will the government just ask Greta Thunberg for her manifesto?

If XR plan to have every demand met, will UK Parliament acquiesce them? Here are their demands

1. The Government must tell the truth about how deadly our situation is, it must reverse all policies not in alignment with that position and must work alongside the media to communicate the urgency for change including what individuals and communities need to do.

Tell the truth? Wow. If only we could legislate that. Shall we have a Ministry of Truth and Room 101 for heretics?

2. The Government must enact legally-binding policy measures to reduce carbon emissions to zero by 2025 and take further action to remove the excess from the atmosphere. It must cooperate internationally so that the global economy runs on no more than half a planets worth of resources.

Is zero carbon emissions by 2025 even feasible? Will we just ban petrol and diesel outright? Ban air travel?

Are governments comfortable turning the second most expensive household asset to effectively zero? Because phasing our fossil fuels and being zero carbon by 2025 means junking the economy.

Let’s look at the latest UK energy mix published by OFGEM.

Coal: 4.8%

Gas: 32.8%

Nuclear: 13.2%

Hydro: 1.95%

Wind/Solar: 15.16%

Biomass: 7.68%

How do the intelligent brains of XR plan to power homes in Britain when fossil fuels make up 38% and nuke (which doesn’t produce CO2) another 13% of the mix? Good luck getting agreement of all this mammoth investment to replace it all with renewables. Where will all these new plants go? New power plants are years, often decades in the planning, safety and construction.

Shall we regulate during this scrap and build program that odd numbers on your street can use power on Monday, Wednesday, Friday and alternate Sundays? And the even numbers the other days? Have they realized that Merkel’s green madness has made German power prices some of the highest in the world leaving 330,000 people with their electricity cut off for inability to pay? Maybe celebrate it being down on the previous year’s 331,000. Does XR see such things as an acceptable price to pay?

3. By necessity these demands mean an initiative similar to those enacted at times of war. We do not however, hand further power to our Government, we demand a Citizens Assembly to oversee the changes, as we rise from the wreckage, creating a democracy fit for purpose.

The Citizens Assembly will likely be chosen by apparatchiks. Not to worry, the education system is already in place.

The University is Bristol’s Dr Dann Mitchell, Lecturer in Climate Change said,

Climate science is now mature enough that we do not just count climate change in terms of degrees of additional warming, we count it in terms of human lives lost, biodiversity reduced, and land claimed by the oceans...The youth, championed by Greta Thunberg, and taken up by school children around the world, recognise this is an emergency, so it is of the upmost important that our leading institutes on climate change such as the University of Bristol recognise it too.

Lives lost? Land claimed by oceans? Huh? Well it’s ok because we only need to listen to a spoon-fed 16yo. No wonder she is depressed when she’s had her head filled with 5 years of indoctrination about how her life is doomed.

We should be worried how our elected leaders are so willing to roll over without standing for anything. It reminds CM of that scene in Monty Python’s ‘Holy Grail’ where townsfolk are trying to burn a witch. When Sir Bedivere debunks their witch hunt they come to their senses. But they burn her anyway.

Could the message be any clearer for Theresa May?

The latest YouGov opinion poll has Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party at 28%, Labour at 22% and the Tories at 13%. Interestingly YouGov polled 5x as many people as usual. Very damning indictment on Theresa May’s lack of decisive leadership. The PM has had no authority from the beginning of this process and remaining (no pun intended) in the top job is toxic for the Conservatives.