AfD

What Australia’s authorities can learn from Germany’s extremist boom

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Of course the easiest thing to do is label the Melbourne-based True Blue Crew (TBC) a bunch of racist bigots. It’s members view themselves as patriotic vigilantes. TBC is a group filling the void left wide open by the politically correct who in its mind are glossing over the things that matter to everyday Australians. One can debate their motives til the cows come home but growing numbers suggest that the political class is not responding. Germany is seeing a similar wave of vigilante behavior. Is it any wonder that Merkel is struggling to form a coalition with the surge in the AfD party to 14% of the vote. One Nation is at 10%. Notice a trend?

TBC, according to its Facebook page is planning to meet and then march through the streets of Melbourne to protest a “lack of action by the courts”  They have a point. An opinion piece in The Australian this week highlighted this leniency:

When it comes to sentencing, the courts take a sensitive approach. Ibrahim Kamara, from Sierra Leone, received a suspended sentence of just over one year, with an 18-month good ­behaviour order, after admitting to five counts, including grooming and having sex with a minor. The ACT Supreme Court judge said “(Kamara) has tried to make a good start on his life in Australia”.

In NSW, an Islamic sect leader was the first person in Australia to be imprisoned over the genital mutilation of two sisters aged six and seven. Notwithstanding a 21 years maximum, the leader ­received 11 months’ jail, while his two accessories will serve a minimum of 11 months’ home detention. This sets a derisory bench­mark for future sentencing….Judges have become politicians in robes and, like the police and other unelected authorities, selectively administer the law according to their prejudices.

Ironically, as much as the police and political class downplay the extent of  “African crime gangs”, “radical Islamic terrorism” or “FGM” the hardware suggests otherwise. We have “Public Order & Riot Squad” emblazoned across police cars in NSW and police officers are decked out in full para-military kit including M-4 automatic assault rifles, a superior weapon to that used by the Australian Infantry. These riot cars and machine guns didn’t exist 10 years ago. While we’re told all is well, the preventative materiel speaks volumes of the concerns within. The only problem is that the voting public is not that stupid that it doesn’t notice the hardware.

TBC also plans in the 2nd part [of the meeting] to take a stand on the streets which it claims “isn’t for the PC (politically correct) so keep that in mind. PC is not going to stop people’s houses being invaded, innocent people being attacked etc.”

Why are we surprised at such groups springing up? Germany’s Federal Ministry for the Interior (BfV) updated its factbook on the explosion in left and right wing groups and the rise of Salafists at home. To summarize:

In 2016, the BKA (Federal Criminal Police Office) registered 41,549 offences in the category of politically motivated crime, an increase of 29% over the 2014 figure.

Right wing extremist party membership has risen from 22,600 in 2015 to 23,100 in 2016.

1,600 (2015: 1,408) registered cases, the number of violent criminal offences with a right-wing extremist background increased by 13.6%. At 1,190, the number of violent crimes directed at foreigners (2015: 918) was the highest since the current definition of politically motivated crime was introduced in 2001. The number of violent crimes against actual or supposed left-wing extremists (250; 2015: 252) remained about the same. The number of violent offences against other political opponents fell significantly (34; 2015: 82).

Left wing extremist party membership has risen from 26,700 in 2015 to 28,500 in 2016.

In 2016, 5,230 criminal offences were classified as left-wing politically motivated crimes with an extremist background (2015: 5,620), of which 1,201 were violent crimes (2015: 1,608). The number of violent criminal offences with a left-wing extremist background that were directed against the police and security authorities significantly decreased to 687 (2015: 1,032) and is gradually returning to the level of 2014. The number of violent criminal offences against actual or supposed right-wing extremists also decreased to 542 (2015: 833). The number of violent crimes in the context of campaigns against restructuring more than tripled in 2016 (2015: 54, 2016: 188).

Islamic Extremists

Salafist movements in Germany have risen from 8,350 in 2015 to 9,700 in 2016 with the BfV noting on the whole, that all Islamist following in 2016 amounted to approximately 24,400 individuals, slightly down over 2015. BfV did note

Although this total number is smaller than in the previous years, the threat situation has not at all eased. On the contrary: the shift towards a violence-oriented/terrorist spectrum has revealed a new dimension of the Islamist scene, which was also illustrated by the attacks carried out in Germany in 2016However, Salafism in Germany enjoys undiminished popularity. Its continuous attractiveness shows the importance of Salafism being subject to a debate in society as a whole and of intelligence collection carried out by the community of the German domestic intelligence services. This is even more significant as adherents of the jihadist tendency of Salafism not only reject the West – symbolised by the free democratic basic order – but also actively fight against it: either by travelling to so-called jihad areas or by mounting attacks in the West.”

In the area of politically motivated crime by foreigners, 2,566 offences with an extremist background were registered (2015: 1,524), including 427 violent offences (2015: 235). The total number of criminal offences in this category thus increased by 68.4%, the number of violent crimes even by 81.7%. In 2016, there were two homicides and 13 attempted homicides by foreigners with an extremist background (2015: three).

Limp wristed rhetoric and responses (this town hall meeting in Germany is a good example) by officials is a large part of the problem for the rise of such groups. When people feel marginalized and ignored for long enough they will take matters into their own hands. It is not a question of whether groups like TBC are right or wrong in their approach to street justice but law enforcement risks having the problem blow up in their face because few in the political class are willing to tell it how it is.

How many more EU-skeptics can one squeeze in a selfie?

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Last week a 31yo Austrian Sebastian Kurz swept to power in Austria with a strong anti-EU bias. Following the growing strength in nationalist parties in The Netherlands, France, Germany, Catalonia, Britain, Hungary, Italy, Poland it seems that the Czech Republic may be the next country to say, “who do you think you are kidding Mr Juncker

Tomio Okamura (far left in the picture) of the Czech Freedom and Direct Democracy Party (SPD) has experienced a huge surge in popularity in the polls on the eve of the vote suggesting he could secure 10% and form part of the governing coalition of which the center-right Ano Party is set to win.

He said that “Over the last couple of years, the EU has shown itself to be un-reformable… The elites are incapable of showing the flexibility needed to react to current and crucial problems such as terrorism and the migration of Muslim-African colonisers to Europe.

So where have we heard that before? Once again regardless of whether a growing number of people in Europe are viewed as unsympathetic, racist or bigoted towards refugees they are ‘still’ voting for these nationalist parties which can only be seen as another vote of no confidence in the EU project. How could it be anything else?

As to the anti-EU selfie, they may need a drone camera to squeeze them all in next time.

Austria proves again why the EU needs to listen more and talk less

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God gave us two ears and one mouth so that we’d listen more and talk less,’ so the old saying goes This is what the EU gets for trying to bully its member states. It wasn’t long ago that EU President Jean-Claude Juncker was telling Austrians that if they democratically elected Norbert Hofer of the right wing FPO then the EU would remove Austria’s voting rights and cut off any transfers. Well the Austrians have voted for a conservative anti-immigrant party (which wants a programme to get immigrants to assimilate with the local culture) with a 31yo leader, Sebastian Kurz. His People’s Party garnered 31.4% (+7%) of the vote with the far-right wing FPO coming in second at 27.4% and incumbent Social Democrat Party coming in third with 26.7%. The Greens will probably not make the cut off of 4% to make a party, So once again the EU has had yet another major repudiation of its totalitarian ideals.

CM has been making the point for ages that forcing one’s beliefs onto others must be done in a way that listens to the other side. Otherwise it delivers results like Trump. It seems the EU hasn’t learned a thing.

So what have we had?

-Le Pen garnered 1/3rd of the French vote (double the best ever achieved by Front National),

-the far right Freedom Party’s (FPO) Norbert Hofer still managed 46% in Austria farcical re-run presidential election),

-Geert Wilders’ 25% increase in seats for the anti-immigrant PVV in The Netherlands,

-the surge in the Sweden Democrats to the top of the recent polls, Elections in 2018.

-Italy’s referendum which turned into a backdoor vote to oust PM Renzi. Elections in 2018 likely.

Brexit (although PM May is handling negotiations in true British efficiency – Fawlty Towers ring a bell?),

the Swiss handing back a 30yr standing free ticket to join the EU,

-the AfD in Germany getting 13% of the vote (Merkel may have won but it was her party’s worse showing in 7 decades)

…these don’t look like promising trends for an EU which is already badly listing. Despite ample warnings the EU refused (and still refuses) to change its course or exercise due care. It just issues more threats.

While the left openly voices its rage at these ‘right-wing’ parties growing in support, they never bother to seek reasons why. The right are generally just dismissed as racists, bigots or worse.  Major party loyalty has never been worse. The fabric of the loyal party voter base is wearing thinner. Take Australia’s One Nation Party led by Senator Pauline Hanson. The popularity of the mainstream LNP and Labor Parties is at record lows. One Nation is now 10% of the vote from 2% several decades ago. While some parties may claim their loyal base has abandoned them the stronger case to be made is the clear shift of the parties away from their once faithful constituents. Why?

Incumbent governments seem to cower at receiving negative news from the 24-7 polling cycle that is social media. Being careful to avoid inviting attack, they pander to all of the socially acceptable agendas – climate change, gender fluid bathrooms, laws clamping down on free speech, open borders and afffirmative action.

However political correctness is clearly not the answer as these results across Europe and elsewhere show. People are sick of the brow beating by socialist activists. Tired of the constant protests and social justice bleating. The NFL might find that most of its fans are against police brutality but they aren’t wanting a weekly lecture in grievance politics with the price of entry or their cable TV channel. Growing weary of the idea that it is ‘free speech’ and anything against those ideals are deemed ‘hate speech’. It is not to deny some positions are not necessarily palatable but in the marketplace of free speech, ridiculous positions can easily be disproven. Better to give extremist voices a chance to talk and invite public opinion on them at their own peril. Shutting it down forces it underground., making it inherently more dangerous.

Too many mainstream political parties are moving off the policy reserve that defined them so their once loyal followers are actively seek ones that will. While Hanson’s One Nation or Senator Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives may not tick every box to existing LNP voters, they cover enough of the positions that matter to them that they’ll tolerate some of the more out there ideas. It is not uncommon to hear the left complain at One Nation’s is growing popularity at the expense of the Greens but it is a devil of their own making.

So will the EU listen to the Austrian call? Will it pay attention to the Hungarians who voted over 98% against accepting forced migrant quotas? Think through the logic. If you were an asylum seeker, would you think your chances of unincumbered settlement would be best placed where 98.4% of the population doesn’t want you? It is irrelevant whether we think the Hungarians are insensitive brutes not to extend a welcome to those that are legitimately in need. It is their country and their democracy has spoken. If Brussels assumes to dictate to Hungary how it wishes to protect its culture and whatever it holds precious, why shouldn’t the EU have the same rights to enforce income tax, housing benefits and anything else it sees fit? Of course it is a preposterous notion.

It will not be long before the EU will be front and center on Greece. Let us not forget that the EU colluded with Goldman Sachs to ‘fiddle’ the accounts to make Hellas much prettier optically than it was. Was this pig without lipstick it wouldn’t have gained acceptance to the club. So the EU is not in a position to claim innocence over a deliberate ploy to ram-road the Greeks into its federal state yet have no qualms treating it with disdain. Talk about double standards.

In all seriousness the treatment of the Greeks by the EU is despicable beyond words. So for all of the left’s blind love for the EU and its socialist agenda, 36% of Greeks live below the poverty line and 58% of the youth are unemployed. So for all of the EU’s shared sense of purpose and equality, that means many can’t access affordable healthcare because it is generally provided by corporates and when you lose a job you lose the healthcare. This means many are forced to use A&E of major hospitals which are now overcrowded and understaffed as more doctors are leaving to seek better fortune for their services elsewhere.

If that wasn’t enough, mothers who had given birth were being restricted from taking their new-borns home if they couldn’t pay the hospital fees. While the government has banned this practice they have introduced new laws to allow the seizure of assets (e.g. homes) if debts are not settled.

Shortly, the Greeks are coming up for discussion over its debt position and austerity. With just months left before Greece’s latest lifeline expires, officials directly involved in the country’s bailout say they don’t have the stomach for contingent aid program when the current one expires in August 2018. While the EU and Athens are battle worn after 7 years of this knife edge rescue,  Greece will need to show it can go it alone but it’s eurozone creditors will be reluctant without further strings attached.

Here is betting that the EU doesn’t heed the lessons that have been ringing loud and clear for years. Sincerely hoping Greece leaves the EU and lets market forces revive its economy. Better to die on its feet than live on its knees.

The much anticipated denial from Brussels has come

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Honestly, what planet are these Eurocrats on? While the FDP had no seats in the 2013 election because they missed the 5% threshold, in 2009 they had 93 seats. In 2017 they have around 78. While Verhofstadt is correct in pointing out that the two main parties do not provide any long term answers, failing to acknowledge the triumphant AfD carries all the same denial that we heard at the time of the Dutch election. As a reminder Wilders’ right wing Party for Freedom saw a 27% jump in seats. The two mainstream establishment parties – Rutte’s VVD (Liberal) Party saw a 23% fall in seats and the Dutch PvdA (Labour) Party bled 75% seats vs the 2012 election – showed yet more rejection of same old same old politics.

Yet as we know from the CM of March 16, 2017,

The German Foreign Ministry tweeted, “The Dutch have rejected the anti-European populist. Good for that. We need you for a strong Europe in 2017.” In what way have the people rejected Wilders? Rutte’s party lost a quarter of the seats they held.”

Keep it up Brussels. The people have yet again sent you a message but it seems it isn’t resonating inside the halls of the EU.

Merkel presides over worst outcome since 1949

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Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU looks to have sealed the largest support but it is her party’s worst showing since 1949. While much of the press is hailing her 4th term one can’t dismiss the rise of the Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) which looks to cement in the third spot with around 14% (c. 6 million votes). In the 2013 election AfD only managed 4.7% (c. 2mn votes) which was below the 5% threshold required to take seats in the Bundestag. Zero seats then, Now looking at 95+.

As CM wrote on Nov 21, 2016,

Think of the coming German elections in 2017 as more like Australia’s recent federal election where Liberal Party PM Malcolm Turnbull scraped home with the protest vote going to smaller parties such as Pauline Hanson’s ultra conservative One Nation Party…Merkel’s power will be greatly cut back as she is forced to pander to the reduced majority and harder line elements the results of recent state elections have borne out clearly.”

While we are already hearing the major parties refusing to form a coalition with it (much like those Dutch parties refusing to team up with Wilders’ Party for Freedom) the message is clear. More voters are sick of the political hand wringing that glosses over issues that concern them. It was the same for Le Pen. Yes, she lost to Macron but she doubled the share of the vote of her Front National party to a record – more than twice as many cared for her platform. Trump’s win. Brexit. The Italian 5 Star Movement. The Italian referendum. The Hungarian referendum. The Dutch election. All showing large shifts toward ‘national’ interests. Why?

It doesn’t matter how far-fetched some might feel the views of people who are voting for ‘nationalist’ platforms may be, the reality is that the counter arguments and actions taken by the current crop of the apologist political class isn’t cutting through. The only way many can express their frustration is at the ballot box. Hence we get Merkel’s worst showing. Yet when political parties say they ‘refuse’ to partner with it, how can they realistically alienate a party that represents 14% of the country? The mainstream media pillorying the supporters of right wing parties are part of the problem. They are made to feel ashamed for holding legitimate  concerns so all that happens is they get pushed underground and resurface at election time. This is why opinion polls have become largely meaningless.

In Merkel’s case what did she expect when she tried to gag the media and police in Cologne on New Year’s Day to cover her gross misguided altruism? To then support the Mayor of Cologne’s suggestion that German women dress more appropriately so they won’t be pestered spoke to many as such a limp wristed response to common decency. Germans are fair minded people but they cannot be expected to sacrifice hard earned freedoms for some who treat their generosity with utter contempt. Hearts and minds can’t be one by political correctness which seeks to segregate swimming pools and encourage citizens to keep an arms distance from certain groups to avoid unsolicited contact. No wonder the hard talking AfD has taken advantage of this weakness.

Before the trolls scream “racist, Nazi or bigot” we must ask ourselves why these large shifts? Put simply, more people are wanting action over problems they are not being addressed by the political class.

In Germany, political violence has been at record highs. The domestic intelligence agency, the Verfassungsschutz (BfV), reported  in Germany’s 2016 Report on the Protection of the Constitution, the number of left-wing extremists climbed last year, rising to 28,500 — the highest figure since 2012. It said the number of right-wing extremists was 22,471, about one-quarter of whom were neo-Nazis.

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Surely such demonstrations pointed squarely at politicians failing to be open and frank about issues. Talking about truck drivers ramming Christmas markets or shooting up Munich shopping malls as isolated events doesn’t fool anyone. Perhaps the most disgraceful cover up was the camera footage of three Bulgarian migrant thugs who kicked an innocent German female down some subway stairs where she broke limbs. The man who released the video as evidence of the lack of action taken by authorities was arrested for breaching privacy laws. It is like charging a home owner for knocking out a thief trying to break and enter.

Chalk this up as another loss for the political establishment.

 

 

Germans celebrating the Dutch election result are kidding themselves

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Fact. Geert Wilders’ PVV did worse than polls (then again how much faith can you put in their accuracy these days) suggested but still won far more seats (19, but below the peak of 24) than the previous election (15) amidst the highest voter turnout in over 30 years. Somehow this was a rout? The media naturally went into group think mode lambasting the platinum haired demagogue. The German Foreign Ministry followed up tweeting “The Dutch have rejected the anti-European populist. Good for that. We need you for a strong Europe in 2017.”  In what way have the people rejected Wilders? Rutte’s party lost a quarter of the seats they held. The Labour Party imploded. The Green-Left Trudeau wannabe was a large winner. Which part of selective journalism did I miss? If anything the German Foreign Ministry just exposed how afraid it is of the instability (which it is indeed a major factor) within Europe. Moreover, the Dutch are speaking for the Dutch not the Deutsche. In fact the Dutch have experienced the foreign policies of the Deutsche in the past and they would play absolutely zero part in their decision making process.

Here is the full breakdown of the 13 parties that will comprise the new Dutch parliament:

VVD (Liberal Party, Prime Minister Mark Rutte) 31 seats vs 41 seats in 2012 elections (24% DOWN)

PvdA (Labor Party, Lodewijk Asscher)  9 seats vs 38 seats in 2012 elections. The party is current government partner with Liberal Party (75% DOWN)

PVV (Freedom Party, Geert Wilders) 19 seats vs 15 seats in 2012 elections (27% UP)

SP (Socialist Party, Emile Roemer)  14 seats vs 15 seats in 2012 elections (7% DOWN)

CDA (Christian Democrats, Sybrand Buma) 19 seats, vs 13 seats in 2012 elections (46% UP)

D66 (Democrats 66, Alexander Pechtold) 19 seats vs 12 seats in 2012 elections (58% UP)

CU (Christian Union, Gert-Jan Segers) 6 seats vs 5 seats in 2012 elections (20% UP)

GL (Green Party, Jesse Klaver) 16 seats vs 4 seats in 2012 elections (400% UP)

SGP (Reformed Party, Kees van der Staaij) recieves 3 seats (NEW)

PvdD (Party for the Animals, Marianne Thieme) recieves 5 seats (NEW)

50+ (50 Plus Party, Henk Krol) recieves 4 seats (NEW)

Denk recieves 3 seats (NEW)

Forum for Democracy gets 2 seats (NEW)

5 parties that had no seats in the 2012 parliament took 17 this time. The average time to form a government in Holland is 75 days. Now that the combinations to form a government become even more complex because Rutte and Asscher suffered huge blows means that may take longer. A minimum of 4 parties is required.

So here is Germany celebrating more political gridlock and compromise, the last thing that any voter wants. As written prior to the election, the PVV was never likely to form a government because most of the other parties vowed to spurn it. Wilders had to win at least 70 seats on his own and hope on a few other’s to take the PM’s role. An unlikely feat.

The extrapolations are that this is likely to dent Marine Le Pen’s chances in the French Presidential elections. The parallels are farcical. Brexit showed that the Brits wanted nothing more to do with the EU, the Italians turned a referendum into a choice to boot out PM Renzi to usher change in favour of Italexit and we don’t even have to mention the Greeks. Yet the Germans and EU officialdom think that this is a precious victory and vote of confidence in the EU.

The idea that PVV was a party for racists and bigoted whites, note that 14% of Dutch-Surinamese voted for Wilders. The majority of them like PvDA but still it puts paid the notion that Wilders was running on the campaign outlined by the biased media. Most Hindus in The Hague voted PVV ostensibly because of its anti-Islam ticket, DENK garnered a lion’s share of Turkish and Moroccan immigrant votes because it opposed PVV.

The most important sign from the Dutch elections is that people stepped up to vote in greater numbers. What we got was even more fragmented politics when some of the silent majority that has stayed on the sidelines stepped up. German politicians should think far more deeply about what might happen if angry Germans who have seen their leaders turn their country turned into a doormat decide to show up at the polling booths.

The Dutch have not had the type of terrorist incidents that have afflicted France and Germany. It is on another level. Having said that, even if Le Pen is defeated there can be no doubt that her success has to date been nothing short of stellar. So much so that the EU, responding to a request from the French judiciary, caused EU MEPs in the legal affairs committee to vote to lift her immunity. How stupid do they take the citizens of the members states for? That she NOW risks being prosecuted for posting pictures of ISIS beheadings in 2015, something that provides proof as to why she pushes the platform she does. If it was such a terrible crime why did they choose to do nothing at the time (i.e. 2015) ? Could it be they finally see her taking the French presidency and with that her anti-EU stance.

In summary there is an irony with regards to the EU and Germany celebrating this way about the Dutch election. It shows they have learnt nothing. Even worse is they fail to see that Europe’s history has always been fractured by cultural, language and nationalist lines.  No different over 100s of years. The idea of one Europe is an impossibility. The attitudes of those who believe in the pipe dream like the German Foreign Ministry are exactly the reason the EU will fail – the Dutch result is signal that the supranational body has to rapidly reform to prevent its implosion. Yet they continue to be a ship of fools. The Dutch are with themselves.

To even propose handing out voting rights like confetti suggests how little politicians respect their citizens

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Honestly how much longer can German politicians take their citizens for mugs? To have certain parties (SPD, Greens) suggest that non-citizens be given the right to vote is ridiculous. Is this all part of the bigger welcoming society they claim or a ploy to add to the ranks of dependents on government hand outs to build a voter base for life? Social Democrat (SPD) voters are 63.7% in favour and Greens voters 64.8% in favour of letting refugees vote. The voters for Alternative for Germany (AfD) showed 96.9% against the idea.

In total 57% rejected the proposal with 42.9% voting “absolutely no way”. 16.2% were definitely in favour. 55.6% of respondents between the ages of 18 and 29 support the proposal. However, at least one third (32.8%) in this age group also says “Absolutely no way”. The greatest rejection is among participants between the ages of 50 and 64 years. 68.1% of respondents to this age group reject the idea for the proposed right to vote.

Potential voters need not be an EU citizen nor do they need to pay taxes. The mere right to vote depends on being there at the time. Although Martin Schulz’s SPD is leading the polls the idea that voting rights are no more valuable confetti will give rise to further (current) voter discontent. Once again where is a nation’s pride and respect when long term law abiding taxpayers are told that one doesn’t even have to contribute to a society before given rights to determine the course of its destiny.

I’ve lived in Japan for 20 years and I’ve paid more tax than I care to remember the entire period yet I have no voting rights. They are for citizens. I am a permanent resident not a citizen. I accept it. We’re the Japanese to offer voting rights to me of course I would take them if legally offered but I can choose to leave Japan if I don’t like the fact I can’t vote. What Germany is doing is selling out citizens. No amount of ‘assimilation and integration’ rhetoric could convince me that this is a sensible strategy. Why not let Canadians and Mexicans vote in American elections and vice versa. Why not go a step further and have a global vote and dispense with countries. Sounds like the precursors to global government. That Schulz left his cozy presidency in the EU was not as a snub to Brussels but a plan to push EU federalism beyond that of what Merkel has been prepared to.

If Germans vote in Merkel or Schulz to power they have themselves to blame for self inflicted schadenfreude.