Norway

Who does this help?

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The City of Victoria has removed a statue of Canada’s first Prime Minister John A. Macdonald from the steps of City Hall. As ever the left’s obsession with erasing history it doesn’t like continues around the globe. The main question is, who does this help? Macdonald did call Canada’s indigenous people “savages” but are these words remotely surprising for the times?  It isn’t to condone those sentiments but why not learn from them instead of bleaching things said 150 odd years ago? Embrace how we have changed and “progressed.” At the very least use the first PM as a yardstick for how far civilization has come.

Will the left go a step further and try to deny Macdonald was the 1st PM? Rewrite Canada’s confederation history  from 1867 to 1873 and make the country’s 2nd PM Alexander Mackenzie the first, because he turned down the offer of a knighthood. Sadly the left would have to discard the multiple times Macdonald served thereafter as PM?

Macdonald offered to resign in 1873 when the party was caught up in a bribery scandal over a rail contract. His party lost the general election but he still led in opposition until winning government again in 1878. Macdonald served for 19 years in the top job despite all of these issues. He can’t have been that bad or did Vladimir Putin’s predecessors interfere?

The biggest irony is that Macdonald is largely regarded as one of Canada’s best PMs, ranked 3rd by MacLean’s in 2016 out of 23. He was 2nd in 1997 and 2011. Those rankings take into account a variety of measures ranging from effectiveness, economic growth and legacy.

Which brings us back to what does removing statues achieve? How do we move forward as a society if some who weren’t alive at the time feel obliged to apologize to people that weren’t born nor directly affected by whatever words were used?

As an Australian, should CM flagellate for things that our First Fleet might have perpetrated 230 years ago? CM’s father emigrated to Australia in 1949, not 1788. CM’s great grandparents were of Norwegian, Polish and Austro-Hungarian stock. Perhaps CM should embark on a global apology tour for things that happened at the hands of those evil empires over the centuries?

Or do we just conclude that the radical left might be best to look in the mirror and reflect why conservatives don’t wish for history to be erased as the 100 million that have died at the hands of socialism’s own work serve as a stark reminder why we need to remind us of our past? Exactly. Wipe away all signs of supposed oppression and bring on the cultural Marxists to enlighten us on how we need to conform through compelled speech and laws to punish us if we choose to step out of line to their warped version of the world. So much easier to do with social media and facial recognition.

Tesla – reports of only 345 deliveries of Model 3 in November

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Seems that Tesla has only managed to make 345 Model 3s in November. A far cry from the promises to make 5,000 Model 3s every week by December. At the Q3 results the goal was pushed out til March 2018 at the earliest as “production hell” bites. Note that no single mainstream auto supplier is on Tesla’s deck which tells us how little faith they have in the company. Auto suppliers run on the smell of an oily rag and after so many bad experiences won’t accept dealing with auto makers who may jeopardize their own future. Recall how many auto suppliers almost went to the wall (many were in Chapter 11) after the tech bubble collapse at the turn of the century.

The other news is that Norway is ending Tesla subsidies and Germany has now disqualified Tesla Model S subsidies as the cars breach the €60,000 threshold. Finally a government that thinks it’s not advisable to give the well heeled tax breaks when it’s the battling insurance salesman Manfred from Bremen living paycheck to paycheck whose taxes to register his clapped out 1983 VW Golf diesel pay for it.

The shares have languished and even the hype of the new products and outrageous deposits has not converted into a ramp up. Q4 is likely to be a shocker at this rate. When will the faithful eventually pull the plug? Maybe Tesla should gamble the deposits on Bitcoin to see if they can lever cash flows that way?

Norwegians want a referendum on leaving the EEA & warn Brits not to become like them

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It seems more in Norway are wanting to have a referendum on the European Economic Area Access (EEA). The claims is that their costs have risen 10-fold since signing the EEA 25-years ago. Norway, while not a member of the EU, still pays around £650 million to Brussels to fund the EEA administration and other EU research projects. Two recent opinion polls conducted by Sentio reveals there is a strong majority wanting to have a say on the EEA agreement: 47% are in favour of a referendum on Norway leaving the EEA, with only 20% rejecting such a referendum. 70% of Norwegians do not want to enter the EU and the Labour Party has recently removed it as a policy platform.

Norwegian businesses had duty free access on all exports to the EU before the EEA was signed and this FTA would still apply if the EEA agreement were terminated. Ironically Norway used to export more to the EU as a percentage of total before the EEA than after it meaning that the supposed benefits of the club have not led to bigger trading opportunities within the block.

So to Brexit – Norwegian Prime Minister, Erna Solberg of the Conservative Party, sounded a warning before the UK referendum about following a Norway style deal, stating that “you’ll hate it…that type of connection is going to be difficult for Britain, because then Brussels will decide without the Brits being able to participate in the decision-making.”

What Do Europeans Think About Muslim Immigration?

img_0254The majority of Europeans polled by a Chatham House survey of more than 10,000 people from 10 European states threw light on what people think about migration from mainly Muslim countries. It showed overwhelmingly that they want further Muslim immigration stopped. Majorities in all but two of the ten states agreed. It ranged from 71% in Poland, 65% in Austria, 53% in Germany and 51% in Italy to 47% in the UK and 41% in Spain. Those that disagreed with the idea failed to go over 32% (Spain) with the bulk in the 10-20% range. So while the press went full rage against Trump’s temporary ban it seems many Europeans agree with him. In Austria, Poland, Hungary, France and Belgium over 38% of respondents “strongly agreed” to stop more immigration. By  gender, age and education we see that the results show a skew. Males more for the proposal than women but over 50% for both. Only 18-29yo failed to have a majority but more in favour than not. The older  those surveyed the more in favour of the ban. Is it that they are bigoted fools or is it their experience on the planet that leads them to this conclusion. Those with less than a post grad diploma voted in the majority in favour while undergraduates and above only reached 48% but much higher than the 27% against. Rural towns were more in favour than city folk.

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UKIP MEP Nigel Farage said to the EU Parliament yesterday,

“I feel like I am attending a meeting of a religious sect here this morning. It’s as if the global revolution of 2016, Brexit, Trump, the Italian rejection of the referendum, has completely bypassed you.

You can’t face up to the fact that this bandwagon is going to roll across Europe in these elections in 2017. A lot of citizens now recognize this form of centralized government simply doesn’t work. … At the heart of it is a fundamental point: Mr. [name not recognized] this morning said, the people want more Europe.

They don’t. The people want less Europe. We see this again and again when people have referendums and they reject aspects of EU membership. But something more fundamental is going on out there. …. No doubt, many of you here will probably despise your own voters for what I am about to say because just last week, Chatham House, the reputable group, published a massive survey from 10 Europen states, and only 20% of people want immigration from Muslim countries to continue. Just 20%. … Which means your voters have a harder line position on this than Donald Trump, or myself, or frankly any party sitting in this Parliament. I simply cannot believe you are blind to the fact that even Mrs. Merkel has now made a u-turn and wants to send people back. Even Mr. Schulz thinks it is a good idea.

And the fact is, the Europen Union has no future at all in its current form. And I suspect you are in for as big a shock in 2017 as you were in 2016.”

I don’t buy the premise that this is all down to bigoted views. I honestly think that the sharp rise in poverty since 2009 is driving people’s fears of sustainable financial security. I wrote the same about Trump and why he’d win for over a year, despite being laughed at. Take Eurostat’s latest figures on poverty across the EU. Although there has been a minor improvement between 2013-14 across the EU-28 (mainly due to inter-EU transfers) many countries including Germany, Spain, Greece, France and Belgium saw poverty rates grow.

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This is what poverty looked like in 2005 and 2007 across EU. I added in the 2014 figures to show clearly how poverty has risen in EVERY country since that time. The UK has jumped from 16% to 23%. Italy from 20% to 28%. Germany 14% to 21%. France 13% to 18%. Is it any wonder right wing parties are gaining traction from socialist governments who think they are going to win the battle by sharing in the pain. Gimme a break. People are already bleeding but EU parliamentarians think it is just a flesh wound.

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However let us suppose that it is all down to racist, bigoted intolerance. If you were an asylum seeker why would you want to have the EU divvy you up into countries that ‘especially’ don’t want you period. Hungary held a referendum where c.95% of those that voted against forced immigration. What prospects would you have in Budapest when citizens are so open about their unwillingness to accept? Canada on the other hand believes diversity makes it stronger so why don’t EU countries subsidise Canada to take more if they think it is a great deal. A better use of the 90mn euro being proposed by Merkel to get those asylum seekers not in any danger to go home.

Should these citizens by punished for holding a negative view given what they see and experience in their daily lives? Then again don’t blame citizens for holding these views when governments downplay or try to hide facts surrounding terrorist attacks, rapes, sexual assaults and acts of violence committed by migrants. Yes, citizens commit crimes too but when German women are told to dress more appropriately to avoid attracting unsolicited attention or well-intentioned residents charged with violating privacy laws for releasing a video of migrant thugs kicking an innocent woman down subway stairs, the people will seek their own security first. German vigilantism is up sharp double digits because the authorities are too ashamed to admit what a failure their policy has been.

The German police have reported a significant increase in far-left violence nationwide in 2015, with politically motivated left-wing crimes jumping 18 percent to 9,600. The refugee influx is a root cause with far-right groups have reacting violently and far-left groups attacking them in response. In January this year 211 far-right extremists were arrested for hosting an anti-refugee rally in Leipzig complaining Chancellor Merkel is ruining their homeland after the cover up after the new year sexual assaults in Cologne.

The Interior Ministry revealed that 39,000 (+19%YoY) politically motivated crimes were committed in 2015, with 23,000 having a far right motive. Crimes against refugees have soared from 199 in 2014 to over 1,000 in 2015. German courts are also doling out multi €1,000+ fines for online racial taunts. Pegida’s founder Lutz Bachmann, was ordered to pay €9,600 for describing refugees as ‘cattle’

Of course not all asylum seekers are bad but it is in their long term best interests to push for more vigilance by governments to ensure the actions of a few bad apples doesn’t spoil the rest of those who really want to have a fresh start and give back to their community.

I (reluctantly) watched the Australian ABC Q&A program which is often a tax-payer funded melting-pot of regressive politics. Tasmanian Senator Jacqui Lambie fired off at the Muslim activist Yassmin Abdel-Magied about how Sharia Law will never happen under her watch and that Australian law is all that matters. She also made points about why she supported Trump’s proposals. Now I am not really a big fan of Jacqui Lambie on most things but I thought she was spot on and the audience surprisingly cheered. Abdel-Magied tried to sound sanctimonious over Lambie’s improper understanding of Sharia law and her uneducated views on the treatment of women in Islamic culture but she was having none of it and closed with “stop playing the victim, your ban got lifted, get over it.”

Instead of taking the point to heart, Muslim leaders, academics and activists are demanding the ABC apologise for airing Lambie’s “racist, Islamophobic and crude” views on its Q&A program.  First of all Islam isn’t a race and to accuse the ABC of breaching its own standards (which is the norm) may I suggest they join the back of that long line.

Once again, victimology is never the way to go. If people want to change the aforementioned statistics of EU, America or Australia who show to be in favour of ‘vetting’, understand the cause. Whacking citizens for expressing concerns to deaf politicians is not the way to go. In Australia 18-C racial vilification laws have already shown how easy it is to abuse free speech. In Germany Merkel is cracking down on any form of ‘hate speech’ (as judged by the thought police). In Canada laws are being proposed to protect Muslims. After first passing a motion that condemns Islamophobia, last month, Iqra Khalid, a Member of Parliament (MP) from the governing Liberals, tabled Motion M-103 in the House of Commons. The motion demands that Islamophobia be treated as a crime without even bothering to define the offense. Hang on? What if Christianophobia is prevalent? Will Christians get the same rights if such hate crimes are committed against them? How is that diverse? How does that encourage equality by singling out one religion create tolerance? It beggars belief.

If tolerance and diversity are at the top of the list, where are these Islamic leaders trying to dissuade those who fear them?

You see there in lies the problem. Not only are citizens fearing job security they are now being silenced by acts of law to protest at where they see the problem coming from. As I wrote in ‘Staring at the dictator’  people are growing concerned about how to put food on the table. They see unhinged immigration with poor vetting a terrible recipe for helping them climb out of the trap they are in. The last thing they want is the odds cut. So before we point fingers let us get to grips with the ‘true’ state of the economy. I am willing to bet that if the world’s economy was in full swing, we wouldn’t hear a murmur about citizens wanting to ban particular immigrants.

Dire Straits – why you need to worry about the global economy & it is nothing to do with Brexit

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Better to sit down. We will be covering some pretty bleak conclusions in this report. The world’s central banks have hit stall speed. They have lost control and do not have enough altitude to recover. How bad can things get? There are two things at play here. One is economic (explicitly monetary) policy. The other is social reality (explicitly hardship). Both have become dysfunctional. Reckless central bank monetary expansion sold behind the banner of ‘nothing to see here’ has backfired. Money velocity (or the power of money) across the globe is plummeting to record lows. While the GFC was easily avoidable the post disaster mop up operation consists of printing our way out of the disastrous debt pile by inflating it away. Even negative interest rates leave inflation well below targets. Deflation still prevails. Poverty and post-GFC destitution has reached boiling point. When people feel robbed of their identity and increasingly their democracy we should not be surprised to see the rise of nationalism and non mainstream candidates and sadly violence, especially in Europe. This social disruption should not be ignored because the experimental financial engineering that was supposed to wiggle us from the bondage of moral hazard has had the complete opposite effect.

Here are 7 things to ponder;

  • A recent US Federal Reserve survey found that 47% of Americans couldn’t raise $400 in emergency cash were the need to arise. 5% unemployment rate belies financial difficulties.
  • A bank survey in Australia showed 50% of people wouldn’t be able to meet their financial obligations if unemployed for more than 3 months. Housing price to income ratio almost twice the level pre-GFC. Private debt: GDP ratio at 160%.Credit rating downgrade imminent.
  • 60% of ETF purchases in Japan and c. 100% of sovereign bond purchases are bought by the Bank of Japan which now owns 38% of outstanding government debt. 15 year Japanese government bonds now yield -0.004%. Japan’s move to negative rates has caused a run on sales of mini-vaults as people look to store their own cash.
  • M2/M3 money velocity has hit all time lows in the US, ECB, Australia, China & Japan.
  • Italian banks non performing loans (NPLs) are approaching 20% and as high as 50% in the south of the country. The ECB is breaching their own covenants to hide the mess. Belgian Optima Bank has just been shut down for not being able to meet obligations. Many more?
  • Over 25% of those in the EU live below the poverty line and youth unemployment is c.25% with long term unemployment now 50%. In Greece those numbers are 36%, 58% and 72%.
  • China’s industrial sector among others shows clear signs of recording sales without much hope of being paid with receivables ballooning in some cases leaping to over 5 years of reported revenue pointing to a sharp uptick in corporate debt insolvency & NPLs to follow.

ECB’s left hand talking to the right?

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It is always amazing when the EU works out its own folly a decade too late. ECB President Draghi made the conclusion that the EU had a lot of wiggle room on the long term employment front and raising the participation rates in the labour market. The EU has around 12% unemployment but 50% of it is LT.

Draghi complained that the austerity in many countries is forcing monetary policy to bear a too big a load. Once again this seems like a cop out. The austerity comes from the regulation and inflexibility created by the EU which restricts Member States at the root level.

So once again the problems with some of the Southern Member States (Greece, Spain etc) we can see that LT unemployment has surged over the last decade because the EU is forcing austerity on it to make sure it can meet their imposed financial targets. The Greeks are resisting so the pressure on the people gets worse and the relative strength of the euro prevents its economy from being able to ignite the economy

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Youth unemployment, the backbone to help offset the ageing population Draghi worries about continues to rise in many parts of the Eurozone.

So once again we have a central bank looking to excuses to make up for the devil’s work of printing a way out of trouble. Don’t forget each euro of GDP requires almost 5 euros to achieve it…the EU project is fast running out of runway

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Know how many public servants there are?

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I was fascinated to know how many public servants are employed around the globe given the reckless central bank debt monetisation. The OECD data shows that in many countries the % of total workforce employed by the government continues to climb. Is this just a sign of how over-regulation is creating more and more departments?

Acceptance into the EU almost seems like an excuse to create more quangos. Greece is case in point. Greece’s public service had only 7.5% employed by the gov’t in 2001. Latest figures show that number at 22.6% (i.e. 203%).

Of course certain public service jobs are necessary (medical, healthcare, welfare etc). I do note that Services NSW in Wynyard has fantastic service. However since the EU has taken over public sector roles seem to have exploded. See the rate of change between 2013 and 2001. Is this yet another sign that the private sector has become more breathless.

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Despite this youth unemployment across the globe continues to climb. Sadly raising taxes and raiding the rich doesn’t seem the way forward…

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