#hypocrites

Scotland bans smacking children. Would you arrest Toya Graham?

Scotland is banning smacking children. It is a contentious issue. Sensible parenting would suggest spanking is done as an absolute last resort. Germany has banned it since 2000. Of course, preventing child abuse is a no-brainer. Recall single mum Toya Graham who shot to fame after slapping her son when she found he disobeying her direct order to stay away from the Baltimore protests. She gave her son a schooling which was widely praised in the media. Call it tough love or whatever but her son literally didn’t know what hit him. How anyone could see it as anything other than unconditional love for her ‘only’ son is beyond words? Even the media were calling her “Mom of the year”.

Yet in this powder-puff world, more laws are being put in place to wrap kids in cotton wool and cage parents behind barbed wire. Is it any wonder we have so many unadjusted millennials who need safe spaces, trigger warnings to prevent micro-aggressions? Why not ban rugby and football for kids because by the same token, contact sports are inherently violent and would only reinforce the many studies which have tried to link those kids who are on the receiving end of corporal punishment to being “more” likely to be aggressive.

As a statistician though, collecting enough credible data on this is incredibly hard to do. For one, kids stepping out of line is not only random in terms of time and severity but age and a whole host of factors. Can one honestly say that a kid who was smacked twice a year is likely to be twice as prone to anxiety in later life than one smacked once a year? Can we honestly link the event of a father smacking his 7yo who stole money from his mother’s purse to buy candy was directly related to his PTSD in later life? Indeed if there is serious and continuous child abuse then that is a whole different story. What is next? Will the government use a stern telling off by a parent as ‘verbal abuse’ of children? Who  determines the line of what constitutes parenting and abuse?

Perhaps we should look at the incidence of single parent households around the world. Maybe parent responsibility (or rather lack thereof) is a far bigger factor in causing ‘problems’ in later life than a smack for insolence. Starting with America – the top 10 counties where kids are in households raised by one parent is over 70% with the ironically named Loving County in Texas the top at almost 100%. In Japan single parent households are now 25% of all families up from 15% in 1990. In Scotland, 25% of families (170,000) are single parent. As a statistician it is far easier to draw a link between growing single parent households and maladjusted kids. The bottom line is that there is a large body of literature showing that children of single parents are more likely to commit crimes than children who grow up with their married parents.

From the report ‘The Real Root Causes of Violent Crime: The Breakdown of Marriage, Family, and Community

“Most delinquents are children who have been abandoned by their fathers. They are often deprived also of the love and affection they need from their mother. Inconsistent parenting, family turmoil, and multiple other stresses (such as economic hardship and psychiatric illnesses) that flow from these disagreements compound the rejection of these children by these parents, many of whom became criminals during childhood. With all these factors working against the child’s normal development, by age five the future criminal already will tend to be aggressive, hostile, and hyperactive. Four-fifths of children destined to be criminals will be “antisocial” by 11 years of age, and fully two-thirds of antisocial five-year-olds will be delinquent by age 15.”

Maybe the Scots should make getting divorce much harder more than preventing corporal punishment? After all single parent benefits are so easy to get making the decision to split so much easier. In Japan divorces sky-rocketed when the government entitled women to 50% of their spouse’s pension. Policy matters.

Before those that want to point at poverty as a factor in crime they might want to know that the Chinese in San Francisco in the mid-1960s had the lowest family income of any ethnic group (less than $4,000 per year) but next to no crime: only 5 Chinese in all of California were then in prison.

How many parents today use iPhones or iPads as modern day pacifiers to naughty kids as a substitute for good parenting? Easier to stuff an iPhone in their face after they’ve stepped out of line than spend 5 minutes looking eye to eye to explain right and wrong. Instead threats like “wait til I tell your father when he gets home” have been replaced by WiFi password changes, temporary confiscations of devices and the cruelest of all – denial of the charger. Different families have different views about discipline. Yet, kids are continuous learners – they quickly learn what they can and can’t get away with. They are sponges. Who could forget this video of a 3yo kid obviously copying his father saying to his mother, “Linda, Linda, Honey! Listen!” Little Kevin worked out that Grandma was a far softer target.

I’m sure most kids from my generation have had a smack from a parent which was thoroughly deserved. I am sure most of you have made it without safe spaces or trigger warnings. So before the Scots declare a huge victory over banning smacking kids, perhaps society needs a deeper hard look at these other issues.

Sexual and domestic violence against males – the statistics

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It is perhaps unsurprising to see some women come out and blame men for their ‘silence culture’ in the aftermath of the Weinstein saga. Indeed it was some of the sisters who chose to stay silent while they collected the trappings of stardom as others suffered. If we were to believe the Me Too crusade we would think that only men commit sex crimes, right? The US National Intimate Partner Sexual Violence Survey (NIPSVS) conducted in 2010 showed that 25 million men and 53 million men had claimed they were victims of some form of sexual violence by an intimate partner or acquaintance. Both figures are shocking to be sure but the statements in a rather one-sided piece from Heather Jo Flores in The Independent with respect to Me Too.  were of particular interest:

Men, it’s not our job to keep reminding you. Remind each other, and stop abusing. It’s as simple as that. Until men speak out against men who abuse, this will never stop. How about y’all post “I ignored it and I won’t anymore” instead? Because #hearyou doesn’t cut it. Just hearing us doesn’t cut it. Taking action, speaking out, and showing zero tolerance for abuse is the only way through. Silence enables. Be the change..So why do men need to have multiple victims come forward before anybody says a damn thing”

If Flores opened her eyes she might see that we are exactly as she claims we are not.  For much of the utter rubbish men may brag about amongst themselves (e.g.bro-culture), talking up how they conducted street justice is never one of them. Take a look at the multiple social experiments on domestic violence which show random men stepping up to defend women they have never met who look to be in trouble. That is taking action. Immediate. No looking the other way. They are hardwired to protect her. It is instinctive. In the reverse, no one defended the male being attacked in the same video. If anything males smirked, some feeling sorry for him, others joining in but not stepping in the way. Where were the girls that leapt into action to protect the defenseless male? Yes, nowhere. The pot calling the kettle black?

A study conducted by the IDF showed mixed battalions had far higher casualty rates than segregated ones because the enemy would deliberately target the women knowing the men would be men and do extraordinarily risky things in harms way to protect the women. It was not that the female soldiers were any less effective in combat. These weren’t random acts of stupidity but a sense of moral duty not found in training manuals. Indeed it is men being men.

Many of us are told from our tender years that we must never hit women. To open doors, walk behind women going up escalators in case they fall, to walk on the kerbside to prevent women from potentially being drenched by a passing car hitting a puddle. In Japan one would be amazed at the reactions of surprise if one suggests women exit the elevator before men. There is a look of “are you crazy?” Followed by a polite smile and bow. We certainly feel a strong bond to defend. Is it any wonder men are 93% of war casualties?

Flores goes on to say, “Yes, I know men get abused too. Once in a lifetime, maybe a handful of times, in extreme situations. And they get abused by men, mostly. Just like us..I write this to ask: why are we still demanding that women out themselves as survivors, again and again and again, rather than demanding that men out themselves as abusers? Violence against women is a daily reality,.”

In the 12 month period conducted in the NIPSVS survey 6.46mn women and 6.1mn men were victims of sexual violence by their partner, an acquaintance or stranger. 4.74mn women were victims of physical violence by men and 5.365mn men were victims of phyiscal violence by women. Hardly a handful of times, nor at the hands of men.

1.555mn men claimed their intimate female partner hit them with fists or a hard object vs 1.289m women claiming the reverse. 3.13mn men were slapped by their women vs 1.85mn in the reverse. Awful stats on any measure. Still it puts paid the notion that men are generally victims of other men once a blue moon. When it came to psychological intimidation around 20.5mn men were victims of it vs 16.5mn women.

The NIPSVS survey was conducted again in 2011 and revealed much the same trends.

If men must out themselves as abusers, perhaps female abusers should do likewise and male survivors should speak out just as women do.

According to a UK study,

“Male victims  (39%) are over three times as likely than women (12%) not to tell anyone about the partner abuse they are suffering from. Only 10% of male victims will tell the police (26% women), only 23% will tell a person in an official position (43% women) and only 11% (23% women) will tell a health professional.

The number of women convicted of perpetrating domestic abuse has increased seven fold since 2004/05. From 806 in 2004/05 to 5,641 in 2015/16…In 2015, 119,000 men reported to English and Welsh police forces stating they were a victim of domestic abuse. 22% of all victims who report to the police are male. In 2012, 73,524 men did…

Men don’t leave abusive relationships for various reasons – the top reasons being: concern about the children (89%), marriage for life (81%), love (71%), the fear of never seeing their children again (68%), a belief she will change (56%), not enough money(53%), nowhere to go (52%), embarrassment (52%), not wanting to take kids away from their mother (46%), threats that she will kill herself (28%) and fears she will kill him (24%). 

Of those that suffered from partner abuse in 2012/13, 29% of men and 23% of women suffered a physical injury, a higher proportion of men suffering severe bruising or bleeding (6%) and internal injuries or broken bones/teeth (2%) than women (4% and 1% respectively). 30% of men who suffer partner abuse have emotional and mental problems (47% women). Only 27% of men sought medical advice whilst 73% of women did.

The percentage of gay or bi-sexual men (6.2%) who suffered partner abuse in 2008/09 is nearly double the number for heterosexual men (3.3%). Lesbian women (12.4%) as a percentage also suffered far more partner abuse compared to heterosexual women (4.3%).

Ms Flores then goes on to say,

Don’t forget that, for 500 years in Europe (and still in many many countries) a woman saying “no” was punishable by death, legally. Show me one example of a man being legally executed for saying no to sex, and I’ll consider changing my position.

While men may not be at risk of being executed for refusing sex, find one Anglo, Asian or European country where women can be. Answer is none. It is only in certain cultures that practice female genital mutilation among other arcane laws that would seek to do so. A sect which feminists, who have no qualms shaming Western society, often choose to turn a blind eye to. It is hardly a credible argument that connects her belief that male silence and ignorance of female abuse is somehow linked to a claim of something that happened half a millennia ago.

None of this points to pleasant reading. Sadly it is this prevalence to continually point fingers at men for not doing enough. Unfortunately it is sometimes these same feminists who are busy trying to change ‘men’ so they stop being men. That somehow we should feel ashamed for being men. That we should take responsibility for every wrong doing conducted by a small minority and be brow beaten for not being the very men you are trying to force us not to be. Ms Flores you can’t have it both ways.

Ann Arbor councilors take a knee

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Well the dilution goes on. Seems knees can be taken anywhere now. Four councilors from the Michigan city of Ann Arbor, home to the University of Michigan, decided to take a knee during the national anthem ahead of session. Of course we can argue they are exercising free speech but what would the Ann Arbor Police Department think of councilors taking a knee to protest police violence? Given these people are in a position to influence policy why don’t they head down to the AAPD and work “with” them on solutions to raise awareness on how to deal with the problem, should it exist on as grand a scale as made out? No, just take a knee and do nothing. Wimpy virtue signaling liberals who think appearing to do good is just as good as actually doing the real thing

Of course it is not to say that excessive use of force isn’t an issue. It is to say that many good policemen and women put their lives on their line to protect the people. Some people resist arrest when compliance would see far fewer shows of force. If you aren’t breaking any laws, why would you resist? However there are too many occasions where people that have resisted arrest have threatened officers with acts of force. It doesn’t justify excessive force. In fact if cops were wanting to hide their bad behaviour they wouldn’t be signing up to body-cams to provide proof!

Back to Ann Arbor. The city of 360,000 has an income above the mean, a 3% unemployment rate, jobs growth of 2%, cost of living 1.6% below the national average and a median house price of $225k. It is hardly a town that has a rampant crime rate with cowboy cops slamming its residents.

These are the crime facts in Ann Arbor vs the national average of cities it’s size

Burglary and motor vehicle theft are at rates at half the national average. Murder 1/5th. Robbery less than half. Assault in line. Rape, marginally above. So on balance hardly a crime infested swamp overrun with blood thirsty police officers. Yet councilors with no evidence of trigger happy sherriffs take a knee?

So perhaps these councilors  could point to the wonderful work of the AAPD and use them as a beacon of successful policing rather than take a knee for problems they could help solve by coordination with other police forces with a bad reputation. No, taking a knee is enough. Case closed.

Await the witch hunts from #METOO

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Perhaps the saddest side effects of the METOO campaign will be the witch hunts that ensue. Already we are seeing such a movement in Australia to out the sexual predators in our own entertainment ranks. We don’t need to labour the point that sexual (or physical for that matter) harassment or assault is abhorrent and true offenders should be dealt with according to the law.  Sadly with a witch hunt some of the claims will be unsubstantiated, knowingly consensual but cause otherwise innocent people to defend things that aren’t true. Im sorry but if you are accused by an ambulance chaser seeking a payout making up about things that never happened then careers could be ruined in the process even if the defendant wins. It’s dangerous ground.

I made the point the other day that people that have PTSD from such sexual crimes do not need campaigns, especially started by Hollywood stars who knew full well the predators in the midst but chose to put career, fame and fortune ahead of other’s misery. It demeans them. Each person who has suffered a serious traumatic event in their life  has to deal with demons in their own way. There is no set manual to coping. To think that ‘raising awareness’ for something that some people have spent a life time trying to suppress or at the very least contain do not need to have the spotlight. Shame is perhaps one of the strongest emotions for sufferers among anguish, anxiety, anger, despair, hopelessness and suicide so putting Me Too in neon lights does them no good at all. You’ll find that most PTSD sufferers have problems with elevated risk taking whether alcohol, sexual or drug addiction, extreme sports activities (motorcycling, skydiving, off piste skiing etc) and so on. Yet someone had the nerve to say “How f*cking dare I?” In all honesty she speaks volumes about the victimhood industry, that I, an innocent casualty  of a sick mind, am told to shove it in order that someone who suffered at the hands of a wolf whistler somehow deserves equal outrage.

There is no issue with people who wish to come out and tell stories of things that happened in the past. However people need to be allowed to come out with their issues at a time that suits them, Indeed different things affect different people in different ways but this Me Too (if you honestly read the majority of posts) looks little more than unbridled activism which sets out to achieve something yet gets diluted by the people making petty claims they personally dismissed 20 years ago who now get a free kick on a social media platform so they can receive oodles of attention, likes and soothing words about bravery. To many of those that sought attention through Me Too, there is a likelihood the stated issue never really bothered you more than a day or two. Think of how someone bothered for decades views a cry for attention?

I have made this comment till I am blue in the face – the real sufferers are the ones who want the least exposure and least attention drawn to them. It is hard enough to cope, We aren’t reaching out for hand holding or singing songs by a campfire. We are in need of understanding, not sympathy or empathy.

So to the witch hunts that are surely coming. I pity the poor (majority of) males who will be unfairly dragged before courts (or out of court settlements) to defend something that never happened. Do not mistake this with an absolute desire to punish real offenders that break laws. What this activism will do is dilute the cause. Just like we saw with the witch hunts encouraged by the Australian Human RIghts Commission, even innocent students can have their lives ruined by people claiming utter falsehoods. Why should we expect anything less in the quest of some disgruntled people to use Me Too to destroy the lives of people that they willingly consented to be in a position to come in sexual contact? That to me is a sickening way to turn a cause that was supposed to help the innocent turn into one that unfairly frames the truly not guilty. But, how f*cking dare I?

#METOO – #ME(N)TOO

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Let’s make it absolutely clear – sexual assault is unacceptable. Pretty much every sane person on the planet gets that. Once again we have liberal elites, led by Alyssa Milano, all of a sudden taking to social media to run the #METOO campaign to highlight an issue they could have easily raised years ago. Now they turn on their former paymaster and sexual predator in chief Weinstein they have all of a switched from blissfully unaware to full throttle because they can. Men who do not wish to be seen as unsupportive have launched a counter campaign #IWILL so as to avoid any untoward  shaming. My two questions to Milano are:

1) If you knew that Weinstein was a predator surely you could have run this #METOO campaign from the get go. Since it was an open secret why didn’t you start #METOO at that time or was it you chose to put your career above the issue?

2) on New Year’s Eve in Cologne 2016, the German federal government gagged the police and the media to cover up mass sexual assaults perpetuated against women. Regardless of who the perpetrators were, after the scandal broke where was Milano protesting #METOO for the fact that the Mayor of Cologne recommended German women wear less revealing clothes so as to avoid being harassed or assaulted by their new arrivals? You were absolutely silent.

Lets be very clear. My daughter was the victim of sexual assault on a crowded train in Tokyo at age 13. When I got the message I downed tools at work and went straight to her school to see how she was. I am not sure whether I was more shaken then her. Possibly. I rode on the train every morning for the better part of two months to see if I could get her to identify the attacker. In my mind I had no qualms about exercising street justice on this pig. I was not in the slightest bit worried about the repercussions to me. My daughter’s safety and mental well-being trumped all else. We haven’t caught him.

So to have Milano virtue signaling about all these evil men perhaps she should take a knee to her own cause by knowing the overwhelming majority of men out there absolutely abhor any form of sexual assault and are more likely to defend women’s rights more than she can possibly dream of. This sanctimony must end. The stereotyping must also cease. The #IWILL campaign smacks of this liberal brainwashing which becomes nothing more than an attempt to sound pious over issues they’ve conveniently ignored until they can get some mileage.

Watch Corey Feldman’s interview on pedophilia with Barbara Walters where she criticizes him for “could destroy[ing] an entire industry” rather than face harsh realities.

So Alyssa in all  honestly your campaign seems more about giving your own career a jump start rather than protecting  all those real victims of assault. Your actions to date would suggest that.

Indeed the bigger danger is that innocent men may all of a sudden be forced to defend themselves if allegations from disgruntled former partners or women who willingly consented to sex feel there is an ambulance chasing opportunity. Maybe on the fringe but still a concern. Why is there no mention of female sexual predators and assaults against men? How many cases of female high school teachers having sex with underage boys have surfaced in recent times? I guess that doesn’t fit the narrative of “speaking out”.

Kobe ‘Steal’ – will the market referee wave a red card at what looks a lot like insider trading?

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If the referee caught Kobe Steel’s (5406) rugby team up to such foul play it is likely that players would be red carded. While unconfirmed speculation at the moment, it would appear that since September 21st Kobe Steel shares came under heavy selling pressure in what a seasoned market punter might suspect looks like insider trading via aggressive short selling. 7 straight negative candle sticks. Kobe Steel spilled the ball on its data manipulation on October 8th.

This would not be the first time that a broker conspired with a fund to short sell a stock ahead of a negative release on insider information where several weeks later news broke and sent the shares collapsing. This is the current action of Kobe Steel shares.

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So excluding borrowing costs or any leverage, if one had managed to short sell Kobe Steel at 1350 (on Sep 21) and brought back at today’s prices a quick fire 53% return would be gained.

The important question is whether the regulator will investigate any potential foul play when looking at the video replay. I will be asking this question directly to the Financial Services Agency (FSA) as I have been invited the regulator to give a speech on ways to improve Japanese corporate governance in a few weeks time.

This won’t be just a beat up of Japan’s corporate governance as foreign corporates have made countless scandals post the introduction of Sarbanes Oxley in 2002.  However it will aim to be a realistic overview of tolerating what seems to be endless preventable insider trading scams with paltry penalties of $500 and a slap on the wrists with a feather duster.

Until serious punishments for flagrant market manipulation are thrust front and centre in front of bewildered and annoyed (foreign) investors, the cynicism will remain that Japan is not a safe place to invest. Remember insider trading is effectively fraud. Perhaps your pension fund owns Kobe Steel in a global portfolio meaning that some shady investor has stolen your retirement to feather his or her nest.

Perhaps I should thank Kobe Steel for getting dirty in the ruck area to help the final presentation draft.

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No Oscars for honesty. Plenty for hypocrisy

As the dirty laundry of Hollywood gets aired how many celebrities forgot that the internet has a half life of infinity and that there are trolls that will go to the ends of the earth to dig up things actors did in the past. Whether it be Jimmy Kimmel asking young girls to fondle his crotch to see if they could tell what the bulge was or Ben Affleck grabbing a handful of reporters’ breasts one thing is for sure, the public have such a low opinion of celebrities that one wonders why the Democrats want these liberal elites championing their causes. This video at election time last year spoofing the previous one done by Hollywood actors (who by the way made jokes about Mark Ruffalo ‘showing his dick’ if they registered – I mean how funny is that!?!? NOT.) was perhaps one of the best send ups which summarises why they should just stick to film making and shut up about everything else.

Listen to this Golden Globes speech by Meryl Streep and put all of her words she made about the President in the context of the then untouchable Weinstein as she said,

when the powerful use their position to bully others we all lose”

We need the principled press to hold them to account..”

”I only ask that the famously well heeled foreign Hollywood press and all of us…to supporting the committee to protect journalists…to protect them going forward…we’re going to need them…and they’ll need us too…to safeguard the truth…”

Isn’t it a privilege to be an actor?…yes it is and we have to remind ourselves of the privilege and responsibility of the act of empathy

How prophetic those words are given the denial of the real culture of Hollywood. That as vulgar as the man she accused in her speech isn’t it ironic that her privileges were in part granted by safeguarding people from the truth by protecting the very journalists who turned a blind eye to the bullies so they wouldn’t be held to account. Which part is the act of empathy? Not even sympathy.