#crypto

Why buy a Rolls-Royce without a Rimowa??

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I guess even the some of well heeled are strapped for cash. Surely the pomp of being able to buy a Rolls-Royce is the theatrics of handing the dealer a Rimowa briefcase stuffed with crisp bank notes. The RR offer is a combination of a $10,000 special buyers support and 0.99% financing. Maybe RR realizes that its customers are probably punting bitcoin so need the extra leverage a 0.99% loan provides?

In the old days as an industrials analyst, I used to cover a stock called Ferretti which made ridiculously large motor yachts where the average price was $15 million +. When Asking the company how the tech-wreck internet bubble collapse would impact sales they responded “our customers do not experience recessions”. One wonders if RR are requiring discounted financing to shift product that costs as much as a house that perhaps their customers “do experience recessions

Time to “put” some eggs in this basket!

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In the everything bubble it is hard to find exposure to ‘relatively’ cheap things. Just a quick glance at the S&P500 index derivatives market one can see that ‘Put’ options (i.e. buying a put option gives the owner the right to sell at a particular strike price) prices are scraping the bottom of the barrel. While the above 2450 strike price (expires on 19 Jan 2018) seems a stretch for an S&P 500 Index showing 2662 (8.7% higher than the above put option) listening to outgoing Fed Chair Janet Yellen in the December FOMC press conference tells us that group think is alive and kicking. At least she admitted that,

The stock market has gone up a great deal this year…asset valuations are elevated….We see ratios in the high end of historical ranges…but Economists are not great at knowing what the right valuations are…we don’t have a terrific track record

Whatever the ultimate timing is of the impending pullback in asset bubbles, the downside will be extra ugly, especially now with so much market behaviour driven by robots with algorithms that have not been thoroughly tested in bear markets.  Time to own some longer dated put options me thinks. #MPGA (Make puts great again)

Bitcoin Exchange looks to litigation to shut critics up

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As Bitcoin surged through $16,000 it’s largest exchange Bitfinex has declared it will take legal action against critics. Sounds like it is run by millennials to have to threaten those who disagree with them. In the following article Bitfinex attorneys said,

To date, every claim made by these bad actors has been patently false and made simply to agitate the cryptocurrency ecosystem. As a result, Bitfinex has decided to assert all of its legal rights and remedies against this agitator and his associates.

However it seems an independent audit over the USD reserve status of Tether, which Bitfinex is involved with has not been conducted as promised. Seems a pretty binary question. So threatening to sue a blogger before facts have been laid bare does seem rather strange. Indeed wouldn’t an audit put to bed fears of a rigged system?

Indeed if an exchange goes down and people wanted the cash equivalent for their coins then wouldn’t the Ponzi scheme be revealed?

As Bitcoin soared past $16,000 overnight it is hard not to feel bewildered but at least there is comfort in knowing dissenting voices will be sued.

Just as a side note. As a business if I accepted bitcoin from a client for $16,000 equivalent services bill yet all my $$12,000 of outgoings for staff, office space, utilities, mobile phone etc were in dollars what would happen if my bitcoin halved in value? All of a sudden my $4000 profit has turned into $4000 loss. Would businesses want to carry the risks of bitcoin in trade unless the landlord, staff,  utilities and cellphone companies all agreed to accept it as payment? Torn asunder the tax man only accepts dollars as far as I know.

Bitcoin now on prime time Japanese variety TV

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The picture above is of Tetsuro Degawa, a Japanese comedian who does his best to show himself to have little intelligence. On prime time TV tonite he was talking about Bitcoin. The sign to the right partially says “can you understand Bitcoin in 5 minutes?” 

Japanese TV audiences generally gasp at new information so Bitcoin was a subject of great interest. Still one wonders if Degawa is presenting on the crypto currency that we’re one stage away from the taxi driver giving tips.

Today, Bitcoin is trading over $15,000 up another 13% today alone. Apparently Warren Buffett has disclosed Berkshire Hathaway has bought some too.

In 20 years in financial markets I cannot work out how something backed by nothing other than greed in a market that is not regulated and highly vulnerable to cyber terrorism continues to sucker more people in.

Tulip mania may be removed as the bubble yardstick before long. As one of my experienced private wealth managers likes to say, “I have difficulty fathoming the “no euphoria this time” view.”

“Bitcoin Bubble” the #1 searched item on Contrarian Marketplace – the Taxi Driver’s blog

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The only thing more dangerous than “Bitcoin Bubble” being the most searched item on this Contrarian Marketplace (CM) blog this month is whether I am tempted to buy it on the basis that in doing so I will call the top. Indeed Bit-coiners should be paying me (in gold please) I never make such a move.

Note in ZeroHedge today one Chinese official, Pan Gongsheng, a deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China predicts “that bitcoin will die of a grand theft, a hack into the blockchain technology behind the cryptocurrency or a collective ban by global governments.” This is consistent to what CM has been saying.

 

Bitcoin bubble – Nothing to see here

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When it looks like a bubble, acts like a bubble it’s probably a bubble. Bitcoin up another 13% today.

 

Gold Coin vs Bitcoin – just go on a crypto blog and invite a fatwah by criticizing it

The Bitcoin debate rages again. I’ve been asked more times by friends about whether to buy Bitcoin in the last 3 months than I care to remember. This video is about as telling as it gets about understanding raw value. At the moment Bitcoin pricing is as random as a Lotto ball dispenser although only higher numbers are being drawn for now (despite the 20% flash crash yesterday, shows panic is a server outage away). My answer to them is I wouldn’t touch it with a barge pole but everyone’s risk is their own. I answered along the lines below.

As a contrarian investor, this video warms my heart. When everyone seems to love something it tends to be a sign that ‘greater fool theory’ is alive and kicking. The video shows a woman unwilling to trade a stick of gum for a 1oz gold coin. If there was ever a better example of mean reversion, this must be it. Mark Dice did a similar video with people asking if they wanted a Hershey’s chocolate bar or a silver bar. Everyone chose the Hershey’s! While I am sure the response on Wall Street would elicit a different response it shows how few people understand the value of barbarous old relics.

The biggest issue with Bitcoin or any other crypto is that it is mined in cyber space. Do you ever wonder why you need to update your Norton anti-virus software every other day? Yes because some criminals are phishing/hacking your data trying to rob you blind. That’s just the amateur cowboy stuff by the way.

Gold needs to be dug out of the ground with considerable effort. The thing that spooks me about crypto (without trying to sound conspiracy theorist) is that state actors (most top end computer science grads in China end up working in the country’s cyber warfare teams), hackers or criminal minds (did you know 70% of top end computer science grads in Russia end up working for the mob (directly or indirectly) the value of coins in the system could be instantaneously wiped out at the stroke of a key. We’ve had small hiccups ($280m) only last week. So as much as the ‘security’ of these crypto currencies is often sold as bulletproof, none of them are ‘cyberproof’. Just like your home software, crypto at every stage has to constantly update its protection to prevent vulnerabilities and it is naive to think it can keep a 100% safety record.

It only takes one serious hack to bring most if not all the crypto down as vulnerable. In order for Auric Goldfinger to crush prices in Gold he’d need to smelt lead bars and paint them, were any left over from the pail and brush used on Jill Masterson. Gold is one currency that governments often threaten to confiscate (India springs to mind). Imagine if North Korea turns Bitcoin into the state currency?

I have just been on a Bitcoin forum and the insults being hurled at disbelievers has all the hallmarks of Tesla share ownership. It is a religion. Not an investment. I was accused of having no idea on crypto to which I argued 90%+ of those that own it probably don’t either. So having owners in Bitcoin or other cryptos knowing a tiny fraction of the risks means they’ll stampede faster than the servers can process data should ‘bit hit the fan’. One crypto ‘expert’ tried to tell me that artwork has no value as it is not tradable. It is tradable, just illiquid. I argued that the latest sale of DaVinci’s artwork fetched $450mn or 45,000 bitcoin. Storage costs aside over the long run I’ll have a Leonardo thank you!

As Mark Twain said, ”It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”

My assessment is that the fascination of those around me about Bitcoin suggests that many of the fan base are punters trading on the greed of others. It has no underlying core value other than those prepared to pay more for it. That indeed is the tenet of all investment but like most manias, the risk/reward ratio can turn on a dime (no pun intended). At some stage the fall out from crypto will be ugly. As financial pundits know

the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”