Confidence

BoM strikes again

BoM

Jo Nova has an interesting piece which describes the shameless behaviour of our Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). She notes,

The Streaky Bay information (site 018079) tells us it opened in 1865 but the site only has monthly data from 1926 and daily data from an even shorter period. The rest presumably hasn’t been digitized yet. As best as I can tell, the station metadata appear to mark this site as being at the post office from 1865 to 2018, and record the ground cover as becoming asphalt in July 1987. That means for 31 years the Australian Bureau of Meteorology knew the site was sitting on hot bitumen and couldn’t be bothered to move it? The BOM gets more than a million dollars a day, and claims there’s a dire crisis running, and they don’t even care enough to measure climate change properly? They’re not even trying.

If you click on the Streaky Bay information site link above you’ll be directed to a “page not found.”

Jo Nova demands a Royal Commission (RC) into the BoM. CM agrees. If they have nothing to hide, there is nothing to fear. People might claim it is a waste of money to host a RC on the BoM but the savings of that investment would far outweigh the billions spent on poorly derived data-driven expenditure on renewables.

Political shots fired. Media misses the target as usual

Never put it past the media or the political class to maximize tragedy for their own personal gain. It is truly sick. Beto O’Rourke blamed the shootings in El Paso and Dayton to Trump’s hatred being on a par with the Third Reich. Seriously? Congresswoman & ‘The Squad” member Rashid Tlaib lashed out at Ivanka Trump for expressing sorrow for the attacks by making attacks on her father’s “hate agenda and racism“, which is a touch ironic coming from an anti-Semite and a minority that has somehow overcome this imaginary racism and hatred to be elected to represent America on a national level. Do Trump’s “thoughts and prayers” solve anything? No.

Sadly even if Trump were to ban guns, the liberal left would give him zero credit for it. So what does he stand to gain? That isn’t an excuse to do nothing either. How is that within several hours of these shootings we have full dossiers on the perpetrators – political affiliation, tweets of racist rhetoric and photos from their childhood? How quickly acquaintances of perpetrators all knew these people were capable of massacres…

One shooter had tweeted support for Trump. The other was a registered Democrat. What does this actually prove? Do all 63m Trump voters and all 66m odd Hillary Clinton voters to a man and woman share a certain slice of DNA with these abhorrent individuals? Does skin colour actually matter? To shoot up a Walmart or other public area requires a special kind of lunacy. These two represent 0.00000154% of those voters in the 2016 election.

If so much information can be garnered within such a short time, why don’t regulators clamp down on checks so the system has a higher chance of catching potential loonies?

Unfortunately these shootings will be forgotten in a few weeks as per usual and Americans will get on with their daily lives. This is nothing but a political football. The reality is that the people most affected (the murdered & their families) are ranked last as debate gets stifled by politicians looking to maximize exposure from the tragedy. Remember you’re a racist, bigoted Nazi if you want to protect 2A. Not a very good starting point to solve a problem.

Yet the media can’t move away from the “if it bleeds it leads” narrative. It jumps on the finger pointing blame game to recover decimated rankings.

Yet what of the stats of gun crime in America?

There are 50,000 (mostly individual) gun stores in the US. 95% of firearm related murders are committed with handguns. Statistically America would be better off banning sales of pistols rather than AR-15s. Say automatic rifles are banned from today. What will change? Handgun murders will move closer to 100%. Good luck buying back 300m+ guns in America.

According to the Crime Prevention Research Center, murders in US appear to be very concentrated: 54% of US counties (representing 11% of the population) in 2014 had zero murders, 2% of counties made up 51% of the murders, ironically in states with the strictest gun controls – Illinois, NY and California.

Yet America has had decades of periods where governments had majorities in both houses and nothing was done on gun control. We’ve experienced Orlando, Las Vegas, Sandy Hook, Columbine, Parkland, Fort Hood, El Paso, Dayton, San Bernardino, Virginia Tech, Geneva County, Aurora…the list goes on.

Moves by sporting goods stores like Dick’s to ban AR sales and raise the age limit to 21yo looked sensible from the outside. However they had multiple massacres over decades to make that call. The current CEO has been in charge since 1984. Why the u-turn in his conscience? Indeed the company did temporarily suspend sales of ARs after Sandy Hook in 2012 but kept retailing them at the company’s Field & Stream outlets before selling them again at Dick’s. Inconsistent.

Recall the Parkland, Florida school shooting. At the time media outlets went all guns blazing on the National Rifle Association (NRA), CM warned that it most likely would cause a knee jerk reaction in the opposite direction. We speculated that the hike in membership fee likely reflected a surge in members. As tragic as the Parkland massacre was, CM said that ‘shaming’ NRA members en masse would only make them dig in deeper. As it turns out searches for NRA membership surged 4900% immediately after the tragedy. People are sick and tired of being bullied into feeling guilty about things they haven’t caused.

39,773 died from gun related death in America in 2018. The highest number in 20 years. Statistically speaking ‘massacres’ accounted for only 106 deaths in 2018 or 0.27% of the total. Yet media attention focuses on it.

To put it into perspective the total number of overdose deaths involving heroin from 2002 to 2015 jumped 6.2-fold in the US. Automobiles killed around 32,000 people last year or a little over 2x that of heroin overdoses. When adding non-methadone opioids (illicit fentanyl) overdose that number surged to 20,000, a 33% YoY jump on 2014 and 5.9x 2002. Why is it happening? The problem for many prescription painkiller users is that once their bottle ends, the addiction doesn’t stop meaning many switch to heroin to get the same ‘opioid’ hit.

We armchair politicians can sit back and shake our heads at America. Yet until there is a will of the people to change the laws, expect more massacres to happen. Name an American politician that is willing to repeal 2A as a cornerstone election campaign policy. There is your answer. Will the Democrat nominees raise their hands for the repeal of 2A? Safer to raise hands at free healthcare for illegal immigrants. 2A is toxic to touch. Sadly innocent people are dying for no reason.

Parker Hannifin slowing (still) in 4Q

Parker Hannifin.png

Parker Hannifin (PH), the world’s industrial giant hardware store reported the following orders for the quarter ending June 30, 2019, compared with the same quarter a year ago:

  • Orders decreased 3% for total Parker (-4% in 3Q)
  • Orders decreased 4% in the Diversified Industrial North America businesses (-6% in 3Q)
  • Orders decreased 8% in the Diversified Industrial International businesses (-4% in 3Q)
  • Orders increased 10% in the Aerospace Systems Segment on a rolling 12-month average basis (+2% in 3Q)

PH is such a good read across on global activity. It supplies the likes of Caterpillar, Boeing, Cummins, Freightliner etc etc. in seals, pumps, hoses, connectors, filters, actuators etc etc. it supplies food companies with linear systems and pharmaceuticals with clean systems/pumps.

No wonder US Fed Governor Jerome Powell just cut rates. The world’s industrial powerhouses aren’t expanding and PH’s order book reflects the underlying weakness. No wonder Trump tweeted that Powell should make more cuts.

For the FY2020 outlook, PH is forecasting flat to down 3%. North American industrial flat to -2.8%, International Industrial -3.2% to -6.2% and Aerospace holding things up at +3.0% to +5.6%.

Typical US management bluster in the conference call. What else is new?

Harley-Davidson- Delinquencies vs Denial

Harley-Davidson (HOG) announced 2Q figures overnight. Shares rallied 6.42% on the back of awful numbers in 1Q. In a nutshell:

Motorcycle revenue fell 6% vs 2Q 2018 and group operating income crashed 26%. US retail sales fell 8.0%. Operating margin fell from 16% to 12.6% in 2Q. 11% for 1H down from 14% in 1H 2018. Supposedly these were better than market expectations.

-Market share in 2Q 2019 down 1.8% to 46.6% in domestic market, and European market share at 8.8%, down 1.6%. No doubt Trump to blame for this.

-Volumes down 5.3% for 2Q and 6.5% for 1H

-Operating margin down. HOG expected 8-9% in 1Q. This has now been lowered to 6-7% in the 2Q statement for the full year.

– weak volume guidance unchanged at 217,000-220,000. This marks 5 years of straight volume declines.

– 30+ day delinquencies on finance up again to almost a 9 year 2Q high to 3.3% of the book. Note HOG in Q1 delinquencies at 3.73%.

– 2Q annualized loss experience up to an 8 year high to 1.82%

Never mind the company embarked on a $42.9m share buybacks in Q2 and $95.5m for the year so far. Happy days.

The company’s presentation pack still smacks of denials with all the mystical customers that aren’t being converted into new customers.

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder

Elizabeth Bay.png

To all those budding first home buyers – knock yourself out with this beautiful 27m2 wonder for sale at $535,000 in Elizabeth Bay. Reminds CM of a garage that was for sale in Park Lane, London for GBP900,000. At least the real estate agent can still spin it…

Highlights
* For renovators: your own fitout
* A blank studio space for revamp
* Views via wall-to-wall windows
* Outlooks over Rushcutters Bay
* Dual aspect sunlight/circulation
* Neat kitchen/bathroom with tub
* Main studio room gutted for reno
* Set in Harry Seidler building, lift access
* Intercom entry, scrambled parking
* Council $1,109p.a., water $717p.a.

There are more prostitutes in the US than CNN viewers

Forbes reports that Fox finished top of the ratings pops in 2Q 2019 for the 70th consecutive quarter. Nielsen noted that Fox has 7 of the top 10 cable news programs and 8 of the top 10 viewers in the 25-54yo segment. CNN slid 18% on 2Q 2018 and 38% in the 25-54 age bracket.

It led to Brent Bozell, president of the Media Resource Center, to state, “there are more prostitutes in the US than CNN viewers.”

Fox averaged 1.3m viewers throughout the day where CNN managed 541,000. In prime time Fox ended with 2.4m average vs CNN in 15th place on 761,000.

Just proves that if networks stick to their own biases without listening to the audience demands, this is what happens.

Pelosi turns on AOC staffer

CM has held for a while that the Democratic Party is so fractured and disjointed in policy that it will end up eating its own. Recall Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, belittled the Green New Deal as the “green dream.” CM said it was best for Pelosi to bring Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) inside the tent for the very reason she won’t use her platforms to say silly things because she isn’t on the A-team.

Well AOC’s chief staffer, Saikat Chakrabarti, has stepped in and accused Nancy Pelosi and her ilk as being “New Southern Democrats” further contesting,

They certainly seem hell bent to do black and brown people today what the old Southern Democrats did in the 40s.”

Pelosi shot back,

All these people have their public whatever and their Twitter world. But they didn’t have any following. They’re four people and that’s how many votes they got…You got a complaint? You come and talk to me about it. But do not tweet about our members and expect us to think that that is just OK

Good to see the harmony inside the Democrats will lead them to a resounding 2020 victory……..

A show of hands anyone?