Motorcycle theft

Motorcycle theft in the UK is becoming an increasingly bad problem. As this video shows, thieves will steal in the middle of the day. Here are some of the stats by one of the local insurers, Bennett’s.

In 2016, powered two wheeler (PTW) theft rose by 16%. 27,217 machines of all kinds were reported stolen (that’s 523 a week!) and only two out of five were recovered. 25 years ago, scooters accounted for less than 1% of all two wheeled theft; today over half of all the bikes stolen are scooters and mopeds. In London alone, where 4776 larger machines were taken, an increase of 620% meant 6165 mopeds and scooter owners lost their transport.”

The explanation for all this is really quite simple; the interest in motorcycling is huge all over the world, and wherever there’s constant demand – in this case for used machines and spare parts – organised crime is never far behind. At the moment, it’s a battle that the government and police have every intention of winning as soon as possible…However, these new gangs aren’t unique to the UK, and are common in most cities of the world at this time. Many of the continental gangs use stolen scooters and motorcycles as the new currency for buying and selling drugs, and the fear is that this may be the case in the UK. Violence as displayed on YouTube and CCTV footage indicates many gang members themselves may be drug users. Because of this, the police caution against heroism, but do appreciate all the information on these gangs that they can get.

Take a look at this shameless attack on a dealer during operating hours. One can see how thieves would need to be “meth’d“ up to do something so brazen. Good to see the dealers win the battle but the police will back down on any chase of motorcycle thieves if they remove their helmets because of fear of causing death or injury to the criminal. Most bike owners who had their pride and joy stolen would most likely relish broken limbs of the perpetrators.

The UK’s 41 ports handle 9000 container movements every day, and are expected to load at least 12 stolen cars and motorcycles bound for Africa, India, South America, Asia and Europe. The police are likely to check one in every 200, whose manifests will often simply state ‘household goods’ or ‘spare parts’. In just one container, on just one day, in just one port, police found 12 stolen machines worth £70,000, its contents listed as ‘spare vehicle parts”

Affordable tracking devices have become hugely successful in recovering many machines this year, the most popular of which are claiming over a 90% recovery rate. Ironically though, thieves are now using their own cheap tracking devices to find their prey that they fix to a machine and track to its home without spooking owners. If they steal the bike they can use the device again.”

Ironic that the criminals are using technology that is meant to deter theft by leading one to the owner’s home to make a cleaner ‘get away’.

Doesn’t look like the battle to lower theft in the UK can be won without the police being able to dish out far harsher penalties to the criminals. Whistling in the wind won’t stop this.

The day Elon Musk gets asked by…


Elon Musk said in the FY2017 conference call today: “Super Bullish…What I find sort of interesting is that our competitors – the car industry thinks they’re really good at manufacturing. And actually they are quite good at manufacturing, but they just don’t realize just how much potential there is for improvement. It’s way more than they think…I went through this math I think on a prior earnings call, but like it sounds like some of the fastest car factories produce a car maybe every 25 seconds. That sounds fast. But if you think of a 5-meter long car, including gap, and a 4.5 meter car with a half meter gap or something, that’s only 0.2 meters per second. Like grandma with a walker can exceed the speed of the fastest production line we’re in, so really no that fast. Walking speed is one meter per second, so five times faster than the fastest production line on earth.”

Listening to commentary like this just shows how cavalier the processes at Tesla are. The day Tesla gets called in by other kings of industry for lessons on production techniques the comment will hold water.

Toyota, which has coined almost every manufacturing effficiency jargon over 50 years, was invited by Porsche to fix its problems in the 90s. Several years ago Toyota was called in to help Lockheed Martin streamline production of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter because of the massive cost overruns. The day Boeing calls up Elon Musk for tips on how to belt out more 787s two slices of humble pie will be consumed immediately.

Seriously one has to question how this board can believe it has the potential to be worth more than all the other volume and luxury auto majors combined when they make such fictitious claims. Sounds like Sakamoto from Elpida promising endless dreams. Elpida went belly up because it failed to deliver. .

Return to the nanny state – perhaps the ASB should consider envy not safety


Coming back to Australia often reminds me  that even when it is not a nanny state it is full of wowsers. This snippet is from Motor magazine. As one can see it highlights how some are compelled to whine over trivial things. Lexus, of all companies, is being bashed for encouraging speeding and the Advertising Standards Board has caved in (although I’m guessing it didn’t  take much to pressure them into the move) . Lexus was then bashed again even after removing the speedy bits.  I’m sure prospective Lexus buyers are waiting for footage of being stuck in a traffic jam

One would be pretty hard pressed to find a car company that doesn’t promote “performance” in its sportier range because by definition it’s kind of the point. Even Tesla for all of its supposed green credentials will brag incessantly about how it’s faster than any other road car to 100km/h, including exotica.

To say advertising “encourages speeding” just takes people for idiots. The moaners are surely aware that speed limit enforcement here is stricter than most. Speed cameras, highway patrols and red light cameras. Drivers here are constantly in fear of their lives. Autonomously driven cars will be a godsend as owners will not have to live in fear of being fined!

On top of that in order be able to buy a Lexus sports car like the LC500 probably requires $200,000. To afford such wheels presumably means that’s someone has half a brain. In traffic congested Tokyo Lamborghini and Ferrari are commonplace . The most impractical vehicle one can imagine but they still sell a tonne of them.

Perhaps we should look at the bright side that only the car company was only criticized for promoting speed rather than being hauled over the coals for not promoting the car in Saudi Arabia with a newly liberated female driver. We shouldn’t hold our breath. When Lexus advertise the LC500 again the next complaint will probably be that it focuses too  much on white males rather than diversity.

Why buy a Rolls-Royce without a Rimowa??


I guess even the some of well heeled are strapped for cash. Surely the pomp of being able to buy a Rolls-Royce is the theatrics of handing the dealer a Rimowa briefcase stuffed with crisp bank notes. The RR offer is a combination of a $10,000 special buyers support and 0.99% financing. Maybe RR realizes that its customers are probably punting bitcoin so need the extra leverage a 0.99% loan provides?

In the old days as an industrials analyst, I used to cover a stock called Ferretti which made ridiculously large motor yachts where the average price was $15 million +. When Asking the company how the tech-wreck internet bubble collapse would impact sales they responded “our customers do not experience recessions”. One wonders if RR are requiring discounted financing to shift product that costs as much as a house that perhaps their customers “do experience recessions

Tesla – reports of only 345 deliveries of Model 3 in November


Seems that Tesla has only managed to make 345 Model 3s in November. A far cry from the promises to make 5,000 Model 3s every week by December. At the Q3 results the goal was pushed out til March 2018 at the earliest as “production hell” bites. Note that no single mainstream auto supplier is on Tesla’s deck which tells us how little faith they have in the company. Auto suppliers run on the smell of an oily rag and after so many bad experiences won’t accept dealing with auto makers who may jeopardize their own future. Recall how many auto suppliers almost went to the wall (many were in Chapter 11) after the tech bubble collapse at the turn of the century.

The other news is that Norway is ending Tesla subsidies and Germany has now disqualified Tesla Model S subsidies as the cars breach the €60,000 threshold. Finally a government that thinks it’s not advisable to give the well heeled tax breaks when it’s the battling insurance salesman Manfred from Bremen living paycheck to paycheck whose taxes to register his clapped out 1983 VW Golf diesel pay for it.

The shares have languished and even the hype of the new products and outrageous deposits has not converted into a ramp up. Q4 is likely to be a shocker at this rate. When will the faithful eventually pull the plug? Maybe Tesla should gamble the deposits on Bitcoin to see if they can lever cash flows that way?

Defining “green vehicles”


While the council was probably advocating environmentally friendly vehicles when they erected this sign, one cannot possibly blame the driver of this gas guzzling V8 Dodge for obeying its literal directive. Oh the irony.

Is this another sign of the top of the asset bubble?


Is this sign of the top? Normally Japanese banks are more risk averse than a politician speaking after a scandal has leaked. So what is the connection of Rolls-Royce using the foyer of the HQ of one of Japan’s megabanks (SMBC)? To promote high net worth banking customers to take out negative interest car loans? To give a luxury element to their brand? Do we need to remind ourselves the last time Japanese corporates shunned conservative values and splashed out on Van Gogh and Monet artworks? It was before the bubble collapsed.

At least the expensive artworks can be theoretically smuggled out of the building in style! We shouldn’t worry about security either as the SMBC foyer has robot security.  They have a “game function” on the touch panels meaning that would be robbers need only distract the robots with video game junky children.