How to predict market bubble tops?

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Triumph Motorcycle is about to launch the 750 unit limited edition Rocket 3 TFC. The bike will sport the largest engine ever fitted to a production motorcycle – a 2,500cc 3-cylinder behemoth. 170ps power and 221Nm of torque. Triumph has really got its act together with its motorcycle line up. In 2012 the UK maker sold 49,000 units. In 2018 that topped 60,697. There must be customers who wish to tow caravans. The bike is sure to annoy every environmentalist.

Although there is something of a pattern with “limited edition specials” and economic cycle tops. Honda released a homologation special 3000-unit RC-30 in 1987 ahead of the stock market crash. At the height of the tech bubble in 2000, Ducati sold a 2000-unit limited edition MH900e replica on the internet for 15,000 euro ahead of market collapse. CM bought one. Ducati sold the 1,500-unit US$72,500 limited edition Desmosedici RR in 2007/8 right ahead of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Triumph’s Rocket 3 TFC will retail for US$36,000. Has Triumph signalled the top?

The idea of buying one to annoy climate alarmists is desperately tempting.

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