Warned to be mild

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Steppenwolf coined the “born to be wild” moniker which became synonymous with Harley-Davidson. Harley is all about conspicuous consumption. It has generally been a good indicator of discretionary income. Harley is not so much about transport but lifestyle. Harley-Davidson’s sales fell 9.3% in the U.S. and 6.7% globally in Q2 2017, ending June 25th. Harley also stated it had lost ground in the big-bike market (601cc and above), dropping from 49.5% market share to 48.5%. Matt Levatich, President and CEO, Harley-Davidson. “Given U.S. industry challenges in the second quarter and the importance of the supply and demand balance for our premium brand, we are lowering our full-year shipment and margin guidance.” Q3 shipments are expected to be down c.20% (39,000-44,000 units).

Harley-Davidson sold 262,221 motorcycles last year and forecast a flat market this year but has downgraded those numbers to a forecast of 241,000 to 246,000 units (-7~8%). US shipments were well below expectations in the US.

Harley-Davidson is suffering from divine franchise syndrome. It has failed to modernize its line up until very recently. While it has plans to put 2mn new bikers on the road over the next 10 years, its competitors do not seem to be suffering with BMW, KTM and Triumph hitting new shipment records. The European makes have much broader product line-ups which adds to the rumours that Harley may wish to bid for Italian sportsbike maker Ducati from Audi to plug the segment gaps in its line up. Harley has had a failed attempt in the sports category via Buell but the Italian maker brings a proper platform to the party vs an in-house employee wanting to rev up Harley products out of a barn.

 

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