The alarm bells keep jangling. I remember reporting on why I thought Trump would win the presidency more than12 months before the fact. The employment situation defied the stats which the Democrats continually congratulated themselves over. Yet beneath that poverty was at all time highs, people on food stamps had grown 12mn since 2008 (to 46mn) and the number of people working more than one job was a record 8mn. The gap between the haves and have nots just kept getting bigger.
Stratfor wrote in the similar outcome in Europe today,
“About six in ten jobs in the European Union today are full-time permanent positions. But jobs offered under part-time and temporary contracts account for an increasing share of total employment. In 2003, well before Europe’s economic crisis, 15 percent of workers in the European Union were employed under part-time contracts. By 2015, that had risen to 19 percent. During the same period, temporary contracts rose from 9 percent of total employment to 11 percent. Temporary jobs offer less security than even part-time permanent ones. They often come with lower salaries and fewer training and career advancement opportunities, making it harder for workers to access credit, plan their consumption decisions or qualify for unemployment benefits.”
One other glaring stat that sent shockwaves was the sharp increase in public sector employment. Even Germany saw public service jobs expand from 9% in 2001 to over 16% in 2013. Every EU country with the exception of France (ironically) exhibits the same state built employment market which masks the disastrous economic stewardship since GFC. Please refer to page 13 of this report for graphic.
Stratfor goes on to say,
“Job security is also tied to workers’ overall satisfaction. Since the start of the 2008 crisis, many Europeans have been forced to accept temporary contracts or permanent part-time jobs when they would rather work on a full-time, permanent basis. In many cases, the part-time or temporary contracts do not offer a path to full-time work. In some countries, low salaries also put the working poor at risk of falling into poverty. Jobs that do not offer much security can be found almost everywhere in the European Union, but they are particularly prevalent in the south, such as Greece, Spain and Portugal, where the unemployment crisis was more severe and the economic recovery more fragile. In addition, the structure of the economy in Southern Europe is more conducive to the creation of such precarious jobs.”
Whether one likes it or not the appeal of Le Pen in France is not a mere lurch to xenophobia. If you rationally listen to her platform outside her stance against Islam she makes salient points on policy that will make citizens feel safer about their economic future. The UK Labour Party totally misread Brexit and now face total wipeout on June 8. Like we know from many recent polls they are prone to enormous swings. The Twitter correlations of Trump, Brexit, Trudeau picked the winner. Le Pen is way in front although growth in followers since yesterday puts Melenchon top with Fillon second. Le Pen’s growth came in 3rd. However Facebook following puts Le Pen over 400,000 clear of her nearest rival, Melenchon.
The weird trend in global politics is that traditional party lines are fraying. The Aussie Liberal Party which I’ve supported religiously since I could vote no longer represents me. People are growing tired of empty promises or politicians that swing toward a stance to capture a wave when it contradicts previous policy. Le Pen, like Pauline Hanson speaks a consistent language. Whether one thinks certain policies are bigoted, racist or un-PC is irrelevant to a growing number. They want results not platitudes. These voters are prepared to sacrifice some unpalatable views in return for someone they feel they can trust in matters most important to them – put simply financial security.
If the world economy was ticking along so nicely we wouldn’t see the likes of Le Pen, Hanson or Trump. The reality is simple, when they draw the curtains each morning they see approaching storm clouds get closer and closer not the blue sky they crave.