Trouble with (being behind) the curve


I’ve been bearish for a long time. With good reason. In July of last year I articulated the awful state of affairs driven by reckless group thinking central banks who have seen money velocity evaporate before their eyes yet continue to throw more fuel on the fire. At a lunch the other week some bankers were telling me (a former banker) that things were fantastic and I was wrong to be bearish. I replied, “have you hired or fired more people in the last 12 months and why?” Stunned silence. Group think prevails like always. Let us not forget that history has at times proven not to be on the side of conventional wisdom, or the consensus view, but on the side of those who dissented from them. More significantly, the media and financial community failed by not being rigorous and questioning enough, resulting in many anomalies taking too long to be discovered. We have seen so often that the time of greatest certainty is, in fact, the time to be most sceptical. “If we spent more time on biopsies in journalism”, as Adrianna Huffington suggested, “there would be far fewer autopsies.”

Please find this interesting summation on ZeroHedge which runs through 12 reasons why this Fed rate hike is madness. I agree. After running out of ammo they are reloading the cartridges with rock salt.

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