Will the Dutch get to live in the Wilderness?

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The first round of European elections in 2017 kicks off on Wednesday this week. The betting agencies have Wilders’ Party for Freedom most likely to gain the most seats. Truth be told, betting agencies have totally missed Brexit and Trump. Poor old Paddy Power missed the mark so bad they paid out on Clinton before the coronation (sorry election). There is no doubt that Wilder’s support is rising. He needs 75 seats to form government in his own right. The best polls have him at 36 but many parties have openly said they’ll form a cordon sanitaire to prevent a PVV government. The problem nowadays with forming a coalition to block another party which is sharply rising in relevance is fraught with danger. The mood of the people signaling such  change is not something that can be brushed aside. If the coalition doesn’t lean some of its policies toward a party that triples its seat count and wins the greatest number is kidding themselves.

On Dec 12 CM wrote:

“Well isn’t it interesting when the legal system contributes to the very thing it’s trying to gag. Last week the Dutch anti Muslim immigration/anti-EU Freedom Party’s (PVV) head Geert Wilders was charged and convicted of discrimination and fined €5,000. The court deemed his comments about Moroccan immigrants (who Gilders claimed were responsible for a disproportionate amount of crime and should be prevented from coming here) were inappropriate.

Well the court may have liked its decision but would be voters in next year’s elections certainly didn’t.

A poll ,conducted by the Maurice de Hond Institute, after the ruling showed if legislative elections due in March 2017 were held this week, Wilders’ PVV would pick up 36 out of 150 seats in the lower House of Parliament , making it the largest political party.

Before the trial began on October 31, the PVV was credited with 27 seats. During the trial it rose it rose to 34 seats. It currently has 12.

The poll also found that Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s Liberals would place second with 23 seats, against 40 today, and his junior coalition partners, the Labour Party (PvdA), would gain only 10 seats, compared with 35 today.

What it does show is that more people are sick and tired of being gagged. Wilders was acquitted of hate speech yet he struck a chord with many who don’t feel safe and are concerned their values and culture are being cast aside in the interests of diversity which seems to be a one way street.”

It remains a long shot that Wilders could become Prime Minister because unless he romps home other parties will form a cordon sanitaire to block PVV from forming government. However if PVV tops the number of seats, even a party led by Rutte would have to gravitate toward the hardline stance of Wilders. Only the Reformed Party (SGP) which is expected to get a handful of seats has agreed to potentially partner. The Elderly Party (50PLUS) is willing to negotiate with PVV if it withdraws the proposed immigration ban (highly unlikely) and supports their wish to lower the retirement age.

Even if the PVV loses, it should be no comfort for the EU. Juncker’s recent musings that the UK may return someday reveals yet again why their empire is crumbling. Denial is its biggest problem.

 

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