It seems Hillary Clinton has made some inroads into the Trump social media domination. When looking at raw stats in the two weeks before the second debate and post, Clinton has grown Facebook ‘Likes’ 2.8x vs 2.04x for Trump but in terms of shares he has effectively doubled her rate of increase. Trump’s average is 4.63x higher for shares (helped by the 614,000 shares of “you’d be in jail” post) and 2.44x for Likes.
Stripping that 614k shares number out Trump would fall to 2.03x the impact of Clinton (from 2.34x pre 2nd debate). Hillary’s “I’m with her” post after the debate got her 102,000 shares. Pulling her outlier out saw that drop to 1.27x growth over pre debate leaving Trump with 3.75x the impact.
On Twitter, HRC has done better. She grew retweets 2.01x vs 1.66x for Trump although his average impact is 3.5x hers. On Twitter Likes she lifted her average from 1.84x vs 1.43x although once again Trump’s average is 4.21x higher.
On gross Twitter followers, Trump, who was 200,000 short of Clinton in November 2015 is now 2.714mn ahead, although this has come down from the peak of 2.75mn on Sep 21st 2016. The impact of his first debate performance and the ‘tapes’ scandal undoubtedly caused a blip.
Social media is not a guarantee of election success but studies of previous outcomes has revealed high correlation in the Canadian, UK and Brexit elections/referendums.