US Unemployed Persons nudges 8 million and turns up 503k since May confirming a 66 year trend


The Bureau of Labor Statistics published Non-farm payrolls tonight and the one chart I remain focused on is this one – US unemployed persons. It has been an excellent picker of turning points in the US economy over the last 60+ years.

In last month’s payroll data I mentioned that it would be interesting to see if these numbers looked like nudging the 8mn mark. At 7.94mn (+90,000) we got close and the direction looks like another turning point in the data. Trends like this fascinate me. Will it breach 8mn in October?

Looking at the reported composition of jobs in the data full-time jobs actually declined by 5,000 to 142,296K but part-time jobs soared by 430,000.

Zerohedge noted, “But perhaps even worse than the breakdown in September job quality, was another seldom-touted series: the number of Multiple jobholders, or people who are forced to hold more than one job due to insufficient wages or for other reasons. It was here that the red flashing light came on because as a result of the 301K monthly surge in Americans holding more than one job, the 5th highest monthly spike in the past decade, the total number of Multiple jobholders soared to 7.863 million, the highest number since the financial crisis, and a number surpassed just once in the past decade: in August of 2008, just before all hell broke loose.”

Are politicians and authorities going to whistle dixie all the while the data shows the jobs market is dire? Low quality employment abounds and more people are needing to take on extra jobs just to survive. One again does this explain why people are so fed up with the establishment and putting their weight behind Trump who is resonating with those doing it tough? Sure sounds like a part of it to me. .

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