Once again, another chart highlights over the last 66 years, US unemployed persons trends have been very linear. Of course the number of unemployed as a % of the population has not varied much at peaks and troughs but the red line in the above chart looks pretty convincing.
Of course the authorities will pat themselves on the back for their amazing guidance but as I continue to warn, recession (and I use that term sparingly) in the US is around the corner. Weaker payrolls, truck orders, a more doveish Fed all point to stampeding toward the exits yet markets still live in wonderland. Although surely the markets are wondering what breaks the 18,000 on the Dow or 2,100 on S&P?